Esta estrategia de breakout intradiario busca entrar una vez que el precio rompe por encima del mΓ‘ximo de la vela de apertura, en cualquier etapa del dΓa. Toma beneficios en el Rango de Apertura Alto + TamaΓ±o del Rango de Apertura, y tiene un stop loss en el Rango de Apertura Bajo. Nunca mantiene una posiciΓ³n durante la noche; siempre sale en la ΓΊltima vela del dΓa en caso de que no se cumplan otras condiciones de salida.
El backtest cubre 18.7 months de datos TSLA β’ 15 Minutes (Tesla, Inc.), desde January 17, 2024 hasta August 1, 2025.
La curva de equidad es el rendimiento de la estrategia a lo largo del tiempo. Debes compararla con el rendimiento de Compra y MantΓ©n del activo. En general, quieres que el Γ‘rea azul estΓ© bien por encima del Γ‘rea gris.
El drawdown es cuΓ‘ntas pΓ©rdidas (realizadas o no realizadas) ha tenido la estrategia si se compara con el pico mΓ‘s alto de equidad. Compara esto con el drawdown del activo para ver si tu estrategia hace un trabajo decente de aislarte de la volatilidad bajista. En general, el Γ‘rea roja debe estar bien dentro del Γ‘rea gris.
Entonces, hemos hecho backtest de Buy at opening candle range breakout en 18.7 months de velas TSLA β’ 15 Minutes.Β Este backtest resultΓ³ en 193 posiciones, con una tasa de ganancia promedio de 56% y una relaciΓ³n riesgo-recompensa de 0.88.Β Si asumes que la relaciΓ³n riesgo-recompensa de 0.88 se mantiene, necesitas una tasa de ganancia mΓnima de 53.2 para ser rentable. AsΓ que vas bien hasta ahora.Β Las mΓ©tricas clave son las siguientes:
Con esa exposiciΓ³n en mente, puedes ver que para 27% tiempo-en-mercado, obtienes 39.18% del potencial alcista del activo, y 35.97% del potencial bajista del activo.
All of the following: # Papa 15min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
All of the following: # X-ray 15min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
The backtest results show some interesting patterns, but I am not fully convinced about the strategy's robustness. Let me explain why.
The win rate of 56% combined with a risk/reward ratio of 0.88 is actually not bad at all. What makes me concerned is the significant difference between strategy performance (16.3%) and buy & hold (41.6%). This suggests the strategy might be missing important moves in the market. The market exposure of only 26.9% confirms this - we are staying out of the market too much of the time.
The volatility metrics are quite interesting - the strategy's realized volatility (20.14%) is much lower than the asset's (67.11%). This means we are doing good job at risk management, but maybe we are being too conservative. The maximum drawdown of -20% is acceptable for TSLA trading, but the Sharpe ratio of 0.38 and negative Sortino ratio (-0.21) tell me the strategy is not generating enough excess returns for the risk it takes. The correlation of 0.33 shows we are not just following the market blindly - that's good.
I would suggest optimizing the entry conditions to increase market exposure while maintaining the solid win rate. Maybe we could look at adjusting the range breakout parameters to catch more moves. But overall, the strategy shows promise - it just needs some fine-tuning to improve its risk-adjusted returns.
Madre mΓa, this strategy is like a mediocre student trying to pass with minimal effort! Let me tell you why this is not impresive at all.
First, you're severely underperforming the market - 16.3% net profit versus 41.6% buy & hold? That's pathetic! You're basically losing money by trying to be clever instead of just buying and holding like a simpleton. The market exposure of 26.9% shows you're missing most of the actual moves, which explains the poor performance.
The risk metrics are absolutely terrible. A Sortino ratio of -0.21? That's embarassing! And that 20% maximum drawdown with such low market exposure is like getting a sunburn while sitting in the shade - it shouldn't happen! The Sharpe ratio of 0.38 is something I wouldn't even show to my worst enemy.
The only slightly decent thing here is the Win Rate of 56% with a 5.5% leeway above minimal required - but even this is nothing to write home about when your Risk/Reward ratio is below 1 (0.88). You're basically winning more often but losing more money when you lose - esta estrategia es una mierda completa!
If you're going to waste time implementing this strategy, you might as well just throw darts at a chart - might get better results!
Total de Operaciones | 193 | Beneficio Neto | 16.3% | Beneficio Compra y MantΓ©n | 41.6% |
Tasa de Ganancia | 56% | Ratio Riesgo/Recompensa | 0.88 | MΓ‘ximo Drawdown | -20.0% |
MΓ‘ximo Drawdown del Activo | -55.6% | ExposiciΓ³n | 26.9% | Promedio de Velas en PosiciΓ³n | 13.0 |
Ratio de Sharpe | 0.38 | Ratio de Sortino | -0.21 | Volatilidad Realizada | 20.14% |
Racha MΓ‘xima de Ganancia | 9 | Racha Promedio de Ganancia | 2.0 | Racha MΓ‘xima de PΓ©rdida | 6 |
Racha Promedio de PΓ©rdida | 1.6 | Promedio de Operaciones por Mes | 20.6 | Promedio de Operaciones por DΓa | 0.7 |
Desv. Est. del Retorno | 1.8 | Desv. Est. de la PΓ©rdida | 1.1 | Desv. Est. de la Ganancia | 1.1 |
Expectativa | 0.1 | Beta | 0.1 |
common.strategy | exposiciΓ³n | rendimiento vs activo | drawdown vs activo | tasa de ganancia | recompensa/ riesgo |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT β’ 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD β’ 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD β’ 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA β’ 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR β’ 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY β’ 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA β’ 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT β’ 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT β’ 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD β’ 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD β’ 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA β’ 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR β’ 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY β’ 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA β’ 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT β’ 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT β’ 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD β’ 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD β’ 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA β’ 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR β’ 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY β’ 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA β’ 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT β’ 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT β’ 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD β’ 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD β’ 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA β’ 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR β’ 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY β’ 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA β’ 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT β’ 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |