Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volumelongBacktest Results @ TSLA • 1 Hour
This intraday reversal strategy seeks to enter once price breaks down the Bollinger Bands low, while RSI signaling oversold and while trading volume is above the average. It also never enters on the last candle of a day. It exits once RSI signals oversold, while also having a take profit and a stop loss.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 5.7 years of TSLA • 1 Hour (Tesla, Inc.) data, from November 15, 2019 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume on 5.7 years of TSLA • 1 Hour candles. This backtest resulted in 351 positions, with the average win rate of 22% and reward-risk ratio of 3.40. If you assume that 3.40 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 22.7 to be profitable. So you're screwed! The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: -39.10% vs 1194.50% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -64.50% vs -75.10% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 26.10% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 22.0%, vs 22.7% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 3.40
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 26% time-in-market, you get -3.27% of the asset upside potential, and 85.89% of the asset downside potential.
Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Romeo"
60min Chart(low) < 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Low
60min Relative Strength Index (14, 70, 30, close) < 35
60min Volume (20, SMA), Vol. > 60min Volume (20, SMA), MA
None of the following:
60min Candle Time = 1530Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume: exit a position when
Any of the following: 60min Relative Strength Index (14, 70, 30, close) > 80
Exit if lost more than 1% (after candle closes).
Exit if gained more than 10% (after candle closes).
Exit after 100 candles, for any PnL.
Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume @ TSLA • 1 Hour (-39.1%) backtest results explained by Mike
Mike
AuthorYo fam, let me break down this TSLA strategy for you! 🚀 The setup looks pretty interesting - catching breakdowns below the Bollinger Band with high volume. That's some classic reversal hunting right there!
The numbers are kinda mixed though. Like, we're hitting a decent 22% win rate which actually matches what we need (22.7%) to stay afloat, and the Risk/Reward is pretty sweet at 3.4:1. When we win, we're banking an average of 5.13% per trade! 💰 That's not bad for a 60-min strategy, especially on TSLA which can be wild AF.
But here's the thing that's making me nervous - that -64.5% max drawdown is ROUGH fam. 😬 And being down -39.1% overall while TSLA went up 1194%... that's gonna be a hard sell to my Wendy's manager when I ask for more shifts to cover my losses. The strategy seems to work better in shorter timeframes though - like that 27.7% CAGR in the last month is lowkey fire! Maybe we could tweak the exit conditions to lock in profits faster and avoid those brutal drawdowns?
Tabular metrics of Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume backtested on TSLA • 1 Hour
| Total Trades | 351 | Net Profit | -39.1% | Buy & Hold Profit | 1194.5% |
| Win Rate | 22% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 3.40 | Max Drawdown | -64.5% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -75.1% | Exposure | 26.1% | Avg Candles in Position | 6.4 |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.27 | Sortino Ratio | -0.61 | Realized Volatility | 27.56% |
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.3 | Max Losing Streak | 18 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 4.5 | Avg Trades per Month | 10.1 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.3 |
| Return Std Dev | 3.9 | Loss Std Dev | 1.4 | Win Std Dev | 5.3 |
| Expectancy | -0.0 | Beta | 0.18 |
All backtests for Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
META • 10 Minutes | 55% | (64.3%/53.3%) 1.21x | (-22.5%/-35.1%) 0.64x | 32 | 3.3 |
MSFT • 10 Minutes | 58% | (46.3%/18.1%) 2.56x | (-21.4%/-23.9%) 0.90x | 45 | 1.9 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 55% | (7.9%/41.7%) 0.19x | (-40.0%/-42.8%) 0.93x | 26 | 3.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 50% | (142.4%/439.0%) 0.32x | (-25.7%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 26 | 4.3 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 64% | (13.5%/12.3%) 1.10x | (-12.7%/-20.7%) 0.61x | 47 | 1.4 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 55% | (-2.1%/23.0%) -0.09x | (-42.1%/-55.3%) 0.76x | 20 | 4.2 |
META • 30 Minutes | 46% | (291.9%/356.0%) 0.82x | (-23.6%/-51.8%) 0.46x | 25 | 6.0 |
MSFT • 30 Minutes | 46% | (75.9%/103.5%) 0.73x | (-19.8%/-26.6%) 0.74x | 27 | 4.2 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 43% | (925.3%/1089.5%) 0.85x | (-34.1%/-42.9%) 0.79x | 28 | 5.7 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 32% | (101.6%/1516.1%) 0.07x | (-28.8%/-48.4%) 0.60x | 23 | 4.5 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 52% | (60.8%/65.6%) 0.93x | (-12.9%/-20.2%) 0.64x | 35 | 3.0 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 37% | (-6.4%/33.8%) -0.19x | (-43.8%/-67.1%) 0.65x | 20 | 4.3 |
META • 1 Hour | 36% | (181.7%/283.5%) 0.64x | (-27.4%/-76.8%) 0.36x | 23 | 5.4 |
MSFT • 1 Hour | 43% | (122.1%/250.0%) 0.49x | (-16.9%/-38.2%) 0.44x | 23 | 5.2 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 25% | (106.1%/3270.7%) 0.03x | (-44.6%/-68.0%) 0.66x | 23 | 4.3 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 25% | (163.7%/1420.6%) 0.12x | (-33.3%/-86.6%) 0.38x | 29 | 3.4 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 56% | (89.3%/99.7%) 0.90x | (-27.1%/-35.1%) 0.77x | 28 | 3.8 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 26% | (-39.1%/1194.5%) -0.03x | (-64.5%/-75.1%) 0.86x | 22 | 3.4 |