Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volumelongBacktest Results @ NVDA • 1 Hour
This intraday reversal strategy seeks to enter once price breaks down the Bollinger Bands low, while RSI signaling oversold and while trading volume is above the average. It also never enters on the last candle of a day. It exits once RSI signals oversold, while also having a take profit and a stop loss.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 5.7 years of NVDA • 1 Hour (NVIDIA Corporation) data, from November 15, 2019 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume on 5.7 years of NVDA • 1 Hour candles. This backtest resulted in 256 positions, with the average win rate of 23% and reward-risk ratio of 4.35. If you assume that 4.35 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 18.7 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 106.10% vs 3270.70% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -44.60% vs -68.00% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 25.40% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 23.0%, vs 18.7% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 4.35
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 25% time-in-market, you get 3.24% of the asset upside potential, and 65.59% of the asset downside potential.
Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Romeo"
60min Chart(low) < 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Low
60min Relative Strength Index (14, 70, 30, close) < 35
60min Volume (20, SMA), Vol. > 60min Volume (20, SMA), MA
None of the following:
60min Candle Time = 1530Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume: exit a position when
Any of the following: 60min Relative Strength Index (14, 70, 30, close) > 80
Exit if lost more than 1% (after candle closes).
Exit if gained more than 10% (after candle closes).
Exit after 100 candles, for any PnL.
Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume @ NVDA • 1 Hour (106.1%) backtest results explained by Mike, Sarah
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this NVDA strategy is giving me some mixed vibes! 🤔 The total return of 106% over 5.7 years might not look like much compared to NVDA's insane buy & hold gains, but there's some serious potential here when you dig deeper.
What's got me hyped is that risk/reward ratio of 4.35 and the win rate leeway being way above what we need! 📈 Even though we're only winning 23% of trades, when we win, we're winning BIG (6.28% average wins vs -1.44% average losses). That's exactly the kind of asymmetric betting I love at Wendy's! Plus, we're only exposed to the market 25.4% of the time, which means we're not constantly risking our tendies.
That said, fam, that 25-trade losing streak is pretty rough 😅 and the -44.6% max drawdown could shake out paper hands. But if you've got the stomach for it and proper position sizing (don't YOLO your whole account), this could be a solid strategy to add to the arsenal. Just remember, past performance isn't guaranteed, but these metrics are giving me some serious hopium! 🚀
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this strategy is a complete disaster! The only reason it shows any profit at all is because you're trading NVDA during one of the most insane bull runs in history.
Look at these horrible numbers - 77% loss rate? That's pathetic! You're basically throwing money away 8 times out of 10. And that 44.6% drawdown? Your account would be absolutely destroyed before you could see any meaningful profits. The market exposure of just 25.4% means you're missing out on most of the actual moves in the stock.
The most ridiculous part is how you're getting completely destroyed by the buy & hold strategy. While NVDA made 3270%, your "genius" strategy only managed 106%. This is embarassing! You would have made 30 times more money by simply buying and holding like a complete noob.
The only slightly positive thing I can say is that your risk/reward ratio of 4.35 is decent, but it's completely negated by your terrible win rate. Even with the "healthy" win rate leeway, this strategy is pure garbage. Delete it and start over. And next time, don't waste my time with such mediocre backtests!
Tabular metrics of Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume backtested on NVDA • 1 Hour
| Total Trades | 256 | Net Profit | 106.1% | Buy & Hold Profit | 3270.7% |
| Win Rate | 23% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 4.35 | Max Drawdown | -44.6% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -68.0% | Exposure | 25.4% | Avg Candles in Position | 8.9 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.42 | Sortino Ratio | -0.04 | Realized Volatility | 23.30% |
| Max Winning Streak | 4 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.4 | Max Losing Streak | 25 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 4.6 | Avg Trades per Month | 7.4 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.2 |
| Return Std Dev | 4.3 | Loss Std Dev | 1.1 | Win Std Dev | 5.3 |
| Expectancy | 0.3 | Beta | 0.21 |
All backtests for Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
META • 10 Minutes | 55% | (64.3%/53.3%) 1.21x | (-22.5%/-35.1%) 0.64x | 32 | 3.3 |
MSFT • 10 Minutes | 58% | (46.3%/18.1%) 2.56x | (-21.4%/-23.9%) 0.90x | 45 | 1.9 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 55% | (7.9%/41.7%) 0.19x | (-40.0%/-42.8%) 0.93x | 26 | 3.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 50% | (142.4%/439.0%) 0.32x | (-25.7%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 26 | 4.3 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 64% | (13.5%/12.3%) 1.10x | (-12.7%/-20.7%) 0.61x | 47 | 1.4 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 55% | (-2.1%/23.0%) -0.09x | (-42.1%/-55.3%) 0.76x | 20 | 4.2 |
META • 30 Minutes | 46% | (291.9%/356.0%) 0.82x | (-23.6%/-51.8%) 0.46x | 25 | 6.0 |
MSFT • 30 Minutes | 46% | (75.9%/103.5%) 0.73x | (-19.8%/-26.6%) 0.74x | 27 | 4.2 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 43% | (925.3%/1089.5%) 0.85x | (-34.1%/-42.9%) 0.79x | 28 | 5.7 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 32% | (101.6%/1516.1%) 0.07x | (-28.8%/-48.4%) 0.60x | 23 | 4.5 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 52% | (60.8%/65.6%) 0.93x | (-12.9%/-20.2%) 0.64x | 35 | 3.0 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 37% | (-6.4%/33.8%) -0.19x | (-43.8%/-67.1%) 0.65x | 20 | 4.3 |
META • 1 Hour | 36% | (181.7%/283.5%) 0.64x | (-27.4%/-76.8%) 0.36x | 23 | 5.4 |
MSFT • 1 Hour | 43% | (122.1%/250.0%) 0.49x | (-16.9%/-38.2%) 0.44x | 23 | 5.2 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 25% | (106.1%/3270.7%) 0.03x | (-44.6%/-68.0%) 0.66x | 23 | 4.3 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 25% | (163.7%/1420.6%) 0.12x | (-33.3%/-86.6%) 0.38x | 29 | 3.4 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 56% | (89.3%/99.7%) 0.90x | (-27.1%/-35.1%) 0.77x | 28 | 3.8 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 26% | (-39.1%/1194.5%) -0.03x | (-64.5%/-75.1%) 0.86x | 22 | 3.4 |