Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volumelongBacktest Results @ PLTR • 30 Minutes
This intraday reversal strategy seeks to enter once price breaks down the Bollinger Bands low, while RSI signaling oversold and while trading volume is above the average. It also never enters on the last candle of a day. It exits once RSI signals oversold, while also having a take profit and a stop loss.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 3.1 years of PLTR • 30 Minutes (Palantir Technologies Inc.) data, from July 5, 2022 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume on 3.1 years of PLTR • 30 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 241 positions, with the average win rate of 23% and reward-risk ratio of 4.45. If you assume that 4.45 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 18.4 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 101.60% vs 1516.10% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -28.80% vs -48.40% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 31.90% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 23.0%, vs 18.4% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 4.45
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 32% time-in-market, you get 6.70% of the asset upside potential, and 59.50% of the asset downside potential.
Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Romeo"
30min Chart(low) < 30min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Low
30min Relative Strength Index (14, 70, 30, close) < 35
30min Volume (20, SMA), Vol. > 30min Volume (20, SMA), MA
None of the following:
30min Candle Time = 1530Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume: exit a position when
Any of the following: 30min Relative Strength Index (14, 70, 30, close) > 80
Exit if lost more than 1% (after candle closes).
Exit if gained more than 10% (after candle closes).
Exit after 100 candles, for any PnL.
Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume @ PLTR • 30 Minutes (101.6%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe numbers look quite interesting, but I see some red flags that need careful attention. The win rate of 23% is quite low, although it's compensated by a good risk/reward ratio of 4.45. This makes mathematical sense since the strategy is still above the minimal sufficient win rate of 18.3%.
What concerns me most is the high maximum drawdown of 28.8% and the long losing streaks (up to 17 trades in a row). This could be psychologically challenging to trade, even if the mathematics work out. The market exposure of 31.9% suggests it's a selective strategy, which is good, but the performance significantly trails behind buy & hold (101.6% vs 1516.1%). The Sharpe and Sortino ratios are also quite mediocre (0.51 and 0.42).
I would suggest to maybe adjust the stop loss parameters, since -1% seems quite tight for a strategy targeting 10% gains. Perhaps widening the stop loss could improve the win rate without significantly impacting the risk/reward ratio. Also, the average time in trade of 12.3 candles suggests this is more of a swing trading approach - this matches well with the relatively low trade frequency of 0.4 trades per day.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this PLTR strategy is looking pretty spicy! 🔥 Even though it's not beating buy & hold (which went absolutely bonkers at 1500%+), there's still some juicy potential here.
That 23% win rate might look scary at first, but check this out - we're playing that risk/reward game like a boss! 4.45 R/R ratio means when we win, we win BIG. And peep that win rate leeway - we're crushing the minimal required win rate by over 2000%! That's some serious cushion for when the market gets choppy. The max drawdown of -28.8% is not too shabby either, especially compared to PLTR's own -48.4% drawdown.
The strategy is giving us about 13 trades per month, which is perfect for us Wendy's warriors who can't watch charts 24/7. And that 101.6% total profit over 3 years? Not gonna lie, that would buy a lot of chicken tendies! 🍗 The recent performance is even better - that 18.6% in just the last month got me hyped! Might have to take some of that paycheck and give this bad boy a shot. To the moon! 🚀
Sarah
AuthorMadre de Dios, this strategy is a complete disaster! I can't believe someone would even consider trading this garbage. Let me tell you why this is basically throwing money down the toilet.
First of all, a 23% win rate? Are you kidding me? You're losing 77% of your trades! I don't care if your winners are bigger than your losers - psychologically, this will destroy most traders. You'll be sitting there losing, losing, losing... 17 trades in a row at worst! This is how people throw their computers out the window.
The strategy severely underperforms buy & hold (101% vs 1516% - do you even math, amigo?). The only slightly positive thing is the Win Rate Leeway, but that's like saying "congratulations, your terrible strategy isn't quite as terrible as it could be."
The exposure is only 31.9% - meaning you're missing most of the market moves while probably sitting there staring at your screen like a fool. With a -28.8% max drawdown, you'll be eating ramen noodles before you see any meaningful profits. And that Sharpe ratio of 0.51? Mi abuela could get better risk-adjusted returns throwing darts at stock symbols!
Do yourself a favor - delete this strategy and start over. Or better yet, just buy and hold PLTR and go to the beach. At least then you won't waste time watching this strategy lose 77% of your trades.
Tabular metrics of Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume backtested on PLTR • 30 Minutes
| Total Trades | 241 | Net Profit | 101.6% | Buy & Hold Profit | 1516.1% |
| Win Rate | 23% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 4.45 | Max Drawdown | -28.8% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -48.4% | Exposure | 31.9% | Avg Candles in Position | 12.3 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.51 | Sortino Ratio | 0.42 | Realized Volatility | 32.60% |
| Max Winning Streak | 6 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.4 | Max Losing Streak | 17 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 4.7 | Avg Trades per Month | 12.9 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.4 |
| Return Std Dev | 4.2 | Loss Std Dev | 1.1 | Win Std Dev | 5.2 |
| Expectancy | 0.3 | Beta | 0.22 |
All backtests for Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
META • 10 Minutes | 55% | (64.3%/53.3%) 1.21x | (-22.5%/-35.1%) 0.64x | 32 | 3.3 |
MSFT • 10 Minutes | 58% | (46.3%/18.1%) 2.56x | (-21.4%/-23.9%) 0.90x | 45 | 1.9 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 55% | (7.9%/41.7%) 0.19x | (-40.0%/-42.8%) 0.93x | 26 | 3.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 50% | (142.4%/439.0%) 0.32x | (-25.7%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 26 | 4.3 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 64% | (13.5%/12.3%) 1.10x | (-12.7%/-20.7%) 0.61x | 47 | 1.4 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 55% | (-2.1%/23.0%) -0.09x | (-42.1%/-55.3%) 0.76x | 20 | 4.2 |
META • 30 Minutes | 46% | (291.9%/356.0%) 0.82x | (-23.6%/-51.8%) 0.46x | 25 | 6.0 |
MSFT • 30 Minutes | 46% | (75.9%/103.5%) 0.73x | (-19.8%/-26.6%) 0.74x | 27 | 4.2 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 43% | (925.3%/1089.5%) 0.85x | (-34.1%/-42.9%) 0.79x | 28 | 5.7 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 32% | (101.6%/1516.1%) 0.07x | (-28.8%/-48.4%) 0.60x | 23 | 4.5 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 52% | (60.8%/65.6%) 0.93x | (-12.9%/-20.2%) 0.64x | 35 | 3.0 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 37% | (-6.4%/33.8%) -0.19x | (-43.8%/-67.1%) 0.65x | 20 | 4.3 |
META • 1 Hour | 36% | (181.7%/283.5%) 0.64x | (-27.4%/-76.8%) 0.36x | 23 | 5.4 |
MSFT • 1 Hour | 43% | (122.1%/250.0%) 0.49x | (-16.9%/-38.2%) 0.44x | 23 | 5.2 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 25% | (106.1%/3270.7%) 0.03x | (-44.6%/-68.0%) 0.66x | 23 | 4.3 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 25% | (163.7%/1420.6%) 0.12x | (-33.3%/-86.6%) 0.38x | 29 | 3.4 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 56% | (89.3%/99.7%) 0.90x | (-27.1%/-35.1%) 0.77x | 28 | 3.8 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 26% | (-39.1%/1194.5%) -0.03x | (-64.5%/-75.1%) 0.86x | 22 | 3.4 |