Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volumelongBacktest Results @ TSLA • 10 Minutes
This intraday reversal strategy seeks to enter once price breaks down the Bollinger Bands low, while RSI signaling oversold and while trading volume is above the average. It also never enters on the last candle of a day. It exits once RSI signals oversold, while also having a take profit and a stop loss.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 12.5 months of TSLA • 10 Minutes (Tesla, Inc.) data, from July 23, 2024 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume on 12.5 months of TSLA • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 233 positions, with the average win rate of 20% and reward-risk ratio of 4.15. If you assume that 4.15 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 19.4 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: -2.10% vs 23.00% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -42.10% vs -55.30% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 54.50% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 20.0%, vs 19.4% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 4.15
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 55% time-in-market, you get -9.13% of the asset upside potential, and 76.13% of the asset downside potential.
Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Romeo"
10min Chart(low) < 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Low
10min Relative Strength Index (14, 70, 30, close) < 35
10min Volume (20, SMA), Vol. > 10min Volume (20, SMA), MA
None of the following:
10min Candle Time = 1530Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume: exit a position when
Any of the following: 10min Relative Strength Index (14, 70, 30, close) > 80
Exit if lost more than 1% (after candle closes).
Exit if gained more than 10% (after candle closes).
Exit after 100 candles, for any PnL.
Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume @ TSLA • 10 Minutes (-2.1%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe strategy looks quite problematic from mathematical perspective. While it has good Risk/Reward ratio of 4.15, the win rate of 20% is barely above the minimal sufficient win rate of 19.4%. This gives very little room for error in real trading conditions.
The performance metrics are concerning. A -42.1% maximum drawdown is extremely high, and the strategy underperforms buy & hold by 25.1%. The Sharpe ratio of 0.26 indicates poor risk-adjusted returns - anything below 1.0 is generally suboptimal. I notice also the high correlation of 0.79 with underlying asset, which means this strategy provides little diversification benefit.
The losing streaks are particularly worrying - a maximum of 21 consecutive losses could be psychologically devastating and would require extremely strict risk management to survive. With average 1.2 trades per day, the strategy seems to find enough opportunities, but the quality of these signals appears questionable. I would suggest to either make entry conditions more strict or consider complete redesign of the strategy. As it stands now, the mathematical evidence suggests this is not viable for real trading.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, let me break down this TSLA strategy for you! 🚀
The strategy is trying to catch reversals when TSLA breaks down through the lower Bollinger Band with high volume - pretty spicy setup! The win rate is only 20%, but check this out: when it wins, it wins BIG with average gains of 5.44% compared to losses of just -1.31%. That's a juicy 4.15 risk/reward ratio! And we're actually crushing the minimum required win rate by like 1980%, which is straight fire! 🔥
But here's the reality check bros - despite those sweet winners, we're still down 2.1% overall while TSLA itself is up 23%. Those losing streaks are brutal (21 losses in a row at worst) and that 42.1% max drawdown would have my Wendy's manager shaking his head. The strategy is only right about 1 in 5 times, which means you gotta have diamond hands to stick with it through the rough patches. 💎🙌
I think this strategy needs some tweaking before I'd YOLO my next paycheck into it. Maybe tighten up those entry conditions or add some trend filters? The bones are there with that risk/reward ratio, but we need to pump those win rates up - these are rookie numbers! 📈
Sarah
AuthorMadre de Dios, this strategy is absolute garbage! I cannot believe someone would even consider trading this kind of nonsense with real money.
Look at these horrific numbers - 80% loss rate and -42.1% maximum drawdown? Are you trying to speedrun your way to bankruptcy? The strategy managed to lose money (-2.1%) while the market was up 23%. That's not just bad, that's impressively terrible! You literally would have done better throwing darts at a chart blindfolded.
The most hilarious part is the win rate "leeway" showing as positive - ja ja ja, sure, technically you're above the minimal win rate, but that's like saying the Titanic was technically still a boat even while sinking. Your average losing streak is 5.3 trades with a maximum of 21 consecutive losses. Dios mío, how can anyone stomach that?
Let me be brutally honest - this strategy needs to be deleted and never spoken of again. The only thing it's good at is consistently finding ways to lose money. If you're considering trading this, please do yourself a favor and just buy and hold instead. Or better yet, keep your money under your mattress - at least there it won't lose 42% of its value.
Tabular metrics of Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume backtested on TSLA • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 233 | Net Profit | -2.1% | Buy & Hold Profit | 23.0% |
| Win Rate | 20% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 4.15 | Max Drawdown | -42.1% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -55.3% | Exposure | 54.5% | Avg Candles in Position | 22.4 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.26 | Sortino Ratio | 0.77 | Realized Volatility | 51.74% |
| Max Winning Streak | 4 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.3 | Max Losing Streak | 21 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 5.3 | Avg Trades per Month | 37.4 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.2 |
| Return Std Dev | 3.6 | Loss Std Dev | 1.2 | Win Std Dev | 4.6 |
| Expectancy | 0.0 | Beta | 0.52 |
All backtests for Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
META • 10 Minutes | 55% | (64.3%/53.3%) 1.21x | (-22.5%/-35.1%) 0.64x | 32 | 3.3 |
MSFT • 10 Minutes | 58% | (46.3%/18.1%) 2.56x | (-21.4%/-23.9%) 0.90x | 45 | 1.9 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 55% | (7.9%/41.7%) 0.19x | (-40.0%/-42.8%) 0.93x | 26 | 3.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 50% | (142.4%/439.0%) 0.32x | (-25.7%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 26 | 4.3 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 64% | (13.5%/12.3%) 1.10x | (-12.7%/-20.7%) 0.61x | 47 | 1.4 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 55% | (-2.1%/23.0%) -0.09x | (-42.1%/-55.3%) 0.76x | 20 | 4.2 |
META • 30 Minutes | 46% | (291.9%/356.0%) 0.82x | (-23.6%/-51.8%) 0.46x | 25 | 6.0 |
MSFT • 30 Minutes | 46% | (75.9%/103.5%) 0.73x | (-19.8%/-26.6%) 0.74x | 27 | 4.2 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 43% | (925.3%/1089.5%) 0.85x | (-34.1%/-42.9%) 0.79x | 28 | 5.7 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 32% | (101.6%/1516.1%) 0.07x | (-28.8%/-48.4%) 0.60x | 23 | 4.5 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 52% | (60.8%/65.6%) 0.93x | (-12.9%/-20.2%) 0.64x | 35 | 3.0 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 37% | (-6.4%/33.8%) -0.19x | (-43.8%/-67.1%) 0.65x | 20 | 4.3 |
META • 1 Hour | 36% | (181.7%/283.5%) 0.64x | (-27.4%/-76.8%) 0.36x | 23 | 5.4 |
MSFT • 1 Hour | 43% | (122.1%/250.0%) 0.49x | (-16.9%/-38.2%) 0.44x | 23 | 5.2 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 25% | (106.1%/3270.7%) 0.03x | (-44.6%/-68.0%) 0.66x | 23 | 4.3 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 25% | (163.7%/1420.6%) 0.12x | (-33.3%/-86.6%) 0.38x | 29 | 3.4 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 56% | (89.3%/99.7%) 0.90x | (-27.1%/-35.1%) 0.77x | 28 | 3.8 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 26% | (-39.1%/1194.5%) -0.03x | (-64.5%/-75.1%) 0.86x | 22 | 3.4 |