Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volumelongBacktest Results @ PLTR • 10 Minutes
This intraday reversal strategy seeks to enter once price breaks down the Bollinger Bands low, while RSI signaling oversold and while trading volume is above the average. It also never enters on the last candle of a day. It exits once RSI signals oversold, while also having a take profit and a stop loss.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 12.5 months of PLTR • 10 Minutes (Palantir Technologies Inc.) data, from July 23, 2024 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume on 12.5 months of PLTR • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 211 positions, with the average win rate of 26% and reward-risk ratio of 4.29. If you assume that 4.29 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 18.9 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 142.40% vs 439.00% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -25.70% vs -46.50% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 49.60% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 26.0%, vs 18.9% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 4.29
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 50% time-in-market, you get 32.44% of the asset upside potential, and 55.27% of the asset downside potential.
Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Romeo"
10min Chart(low) < 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Low
10min Relative Strength Index (14, 70, 30, close) < 35
10min Volume (20, SMA), Vol. > 10min Volume (20, SMA), MA
None of the following:
10min Candle Time = 1530Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume: exit a position when
Any of the following: 10min Relative Strength Index (14, 70, 30, close) > 80
Exit if lost more than 1% (after candle closes).
Exit if gained more than 10% (after candle closes).
Exit after 100 candles, for any PnL.
Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume @ PLTR • 10 Minutes (142.4%) backtest results explained by Mike
Mike
AuthorYo fam, these PLTR backtest results are looking pretty juicy! 🚀 Let me break it down for my fellow traders.
First off, that 142.4% net profit is making my Wendy's paycheck look tiny, even though it didn't beat buy & hold (439%). But check this out - the strategy only keeps us in the market about half the time (49.6% exposure), which means less stress and more time to browse WSB! The risk metrics are looking clean too, with a solid Sharpe of 2.33 and the drawdown (-25.7%) is way better than what PLTR itself went through (-46.5%).
Here's what's got me hyped: we're only winning 26% of trades, but when we win, we WIN BIG (6.24% average win vs -1.45% average loss). That 4.29 risk/reward ratio is straight fire! 🔥 And peep that win rate leeway - we only need 18.9% wins to break even, but we're hitting 26%. The strategy is giving us around 1 trade per day, which is perfect for managing alongside my Wendy's shifts lol.
Just keep an eye on those losing streaks fam - max of 13 in a row might shake out paper hands, but that's why we stick to our strategy! Diamond hands baby! 💎🙌
Tabular metrics of Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume backtested on PLTR • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 211 | Net Profit | 142.4% | Buy & Hold Profit | 439.0% |
| Win Rate | 26% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 4.29 | Max Drawdown | -25.7% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -46.5% | Exposure | 49.6% | Avg Candles in Position | 22.5 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.33 | Sortino Ratio | 2.05 | Realized Volatility | 50.57% |
| Max Winning Streak | 3 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.3 | Max Losing Streak | 13 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 3.8 | Avg Trades per Month | 33.9 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.1 |
| Return Std Dev | 4.5 | Loss Std Dev | 1.2 | Win Std Dev | 5.7 |
| Expectancy | 0.4 | Beta | 0.54 |
All backtests for Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
META • 10 Minutes | 55% | (64.3%/53.3%) 1.21x | (-22.5%/-35.1%) 0.64x | 32 | 3.3 |
MSFT • 10 Minutes | 58% | (46.3%/18.1%) 2.56x | (-21.4%/-23.9%) 0.90x | 45 | 1.9 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 55% | (7.9%/41.7%) 0.19x | (-40.0%/-42.8%) 0.93x | 26 | 3.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 50% | (142.4%/439.0%) 0.32x | (-25.7%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 26 | 4.3 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 64% | (13.5%/12.3%) 1.10x | (-12.7%/-20.7%) 0.61x | 47 | 1.4 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 55% | (-2.1%/23.0%) -0.09x | (-42.1%/-55.3%) 0.76x | 20 | 4.2 |
META • 30 Minutes | 46% | (291.9%/356.0%) 0.82x | (-23.6%/-51.8%) 0.46x | 25 | 6.0 |
MSFT • 30 Minutes | 46% | (75.9%/103.5%) 0.73x | (-19.8%/-26.6%) 0.74x | 27 | 4.2 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 43% | (925.3%/1089.5%) 0.85x | (-34.1%/-42.9%) 0.79x | 28 | 5.7 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 32% | (101.6%/1516.1%) 0.07x | (-28.8%/-48.4%) 0.60x | 23 | 4.5 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 52% | (60.8%/65.6%) 0.93x | (-12.9%/-20.2%) 0.64x | 35 | 3.0 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 37% | (-6.4%/33.8%) -0.19x | (-43.8%/-67.1%) 0.65x | 20 | 4.3 |
META • 1 Hour | 36% | (181.7%/283.5%) 0.64x | (-27.4%/-76.8%) 0.36x | 23 | 5.4 |
MSFT • 1 Hour | 43% | (122.1%/250.0%) 0.49x | (-16.9%/-38.2%) 0.44x | 23 | 5.2 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 25% | (106.1%/3270.7%) 0.03x | (-44.6%/-68.0%) 0.66x | 23 | 4.3 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 25% | (163.7%/1420.6%) 0.12x | (-33.3%/-86.6%) 0.38x | 29 | 3.4 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 56% | (89.3%/99.7%) 0.90x | (-27.1%/-35.1%) 0.77x | 28 | 3.8 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 26% | (-39.1%/1194.5%) -0.03x | (-64.5%/-75.1%) 0.86x | 22 | 3.4 |