Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volumelongBacktest Results @ NVDA • 10 Minutes
This intraday reversal strategy seeks to enter once price breaks down the Bollinger Bands low, while RSI signaling oversold and while trading volume is above the average. It also never enters on the last candle of a day. It exits once RSI signals oversold, while also having a take profit and a stop loss.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 12.5 months of NVDA • 10 Minutes (NVIDIA Corporation) data, from July 23, 2024 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume on 12.5 months of NVDA • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 193 positions, with the average win rate of 26% and reward-risk ratio of 3.10. If you assume that 3.10 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 24.4 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 7.90% vs 41.70% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -40.00% vs -42.80% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 55.40% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 26.0%, vs 24.4% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 3.10
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 55% time-in-market, you get 18.94% of the asset upside potential, and 93.46% of the asset downside potential.
Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume: enter a position when
All of the following: # "Romeo"
10min Chart(low) < 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Low
10min Relative Strength Index (14, 70, 30, close) < 35
10min Volume (20, SMA), Vol. > 10min Volume (20, SMA), MA
None of the following:
10min Candle Time = 1530Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume: exit a position when
Any of the following: 10min Relative Strength Index (14, 70, 30, close) > 80
Exit if lost more than 1% (after candle closes).
Exit if gained more than 10% (after candle closes).
Exit after 100 candles, for any PnL.
Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume @ NVDA • 10 Minutes (7.9%) backtest results explained by Mike, Sarah
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this NVDA strategy is pretty wild! 🚀 Not gonna lie, those numbers are giving me some mixed feelings but there's definitely potential here.
First off, that 26% win rate might look scary, but check this out - when we win, we win BIG (4.24% average) compared to our losses (-1.37%). That's a solid 3.1 risk/reward ratio! Plus, we're actually above the minimal required win rate, which is pretty sweet. And running about 1 trade per day means we're not getting killed on commissions like some of those high-frequency strategies.
The thing that's making me a bit nervous is that 40% max drawdown though 😬 That's some serious diamond hands territory right there. And we're underperforming buy & hold (7.9% vs 41.7%), which isn't ideal for a stock like NVDA that's been absolutely ripping. But hey, we're only exposed to the market 55.4% of the time, so maybe that's not terrible considering we're basically playing defense half the time.
What I'm really digging is that positive expectancy and those decent Sharpe/Sortino ratios. Might be worth testing with some position sizing to manage that drawdown better. Could be a nice addition to the portfolio if you're not trying to YOLO your whole Wendy's paycheck on it! 💎🙌
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this strategy is a complete disaster! The only reason it shows any profit at all is because you're trading NVDA during one of the most bullish periods in its history.
Look at these horrible numbers: 74% loss rate? That's pathetic! You're basically throwing money away with both hands. And that 40% drawdown? Dios mío, you might as well go to Las Vegas - at least they give you free drinks while taking your money!
The most ridiculous part is that while the market went up 41.7%, your "brilliant" strategy only managed to squeeze out a miserable 7.9%. That's what we call in España "hacer el ridículo" - making a fool of yourself!
Yes, yes, I can see you trying to hide behind that fancy 3.1 risk/reward ratio, but when you're only winning 26% of your trades, that's like putting lipstick on a cerdo! The market exposure of 55.4% shows you're missing half the moves, and probably catching all the wrong ones.
If you want my profesional opinion: throw this strategy in the basura where it belongs and start over. And next time, try not to create something that bleeds money 3 times out of 4 trades!
Tabular metrics of Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume backtested on NVDA • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 193 | Net Profit | 7.9% | Buy & Hold Profit | 41.7% |
| Win Rate | 26% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 3.10 | Max Drawdown | -40.0% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -42.8% | Exposure | 55.4% | Avg Candles in Position | 27.7 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.32 | Sortino Ratio | 0.81 | Realized Volatility | 37.94% |
| Max Winning Streak | 3 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.4 | Max Losing Streak | 12 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 3.9 | Avg Trades per Month | 31.0 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.0 |
| Return Std Dev | 3.0 | Loss Std Dev | 1.2 | Win Std Dev | 2.9 |
| Expectancy | 0.1 | Beta | 0.54 |
All backtests for Reversal strategy: BB Low Breakdown on elevated volume
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
META • 10 Minutes | 55% | (64.3%/53.3%) 1.21x | (-22.5%/-35.1%) 0.64x | 32 | 3.3 |
MSFT • 10 Minutes | 58% | (46.3%/18.1%) 2.56x | (-21.4%/-23.9%) 0.90x | 45 | 1.9 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 55% | (7.9%/41.7%) 0.19x | (-40.0%/-42.8%) 0.93x | 26 | 3.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 50% | (142.4%/439.0%) 0.32x | (-25.7%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 26 | 4.3 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 64% | (13.5%/12.3%) 1.10x | (-12.7%/-20.7%) 0.61x | 47 | 1.4 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 55% | (-2.1%/23.0%) -0.09x | (-42.1%/-55.3%) 0.76x | 20 | 4.2 |
META • 30 Minutes | 46% | (291.9%/356.0%) 0.82x | (-23.6%/-51.8%) 0.46x | 25 | 6.0 |
MSFT • 30 Minutes | 46% | (75.9%/103.5%) 0.73x | (-19.8%/-26.6%) 0.74x | 27 | 4.2 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 43% | (925.3%/1089.5%) 0.85x | (-34.1%/-42.9%) 0.79x | 28 | 5.7 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 32% | (101.6%/1516.1%) 0.07x | (-28.8%/-48.4%) 0.60x | 23 | 4.5 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 52% | (60.8%/65.6%) 0.93x | (-12.9%/-20.2%) 0.64x | 35 | 3.0 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 37% | (-6.4%/33.8%) -0.19x | (-43.8%/-67.1%) 0.65x | 20 | 4.3 |
META • 1 Hour | 36% | (181.7%/283.5%) 0.64x | (-27.4%/-76.8%) 0.36x | 23 | 5.4 |
MSFT • 1 Hour | 43% | (122.1%/250.0%) 0.49x | (-16.9%/-38.2%) 0.44x | 23 | 5.2 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 25% | (106.1%/3270.7%) 0.03x | (-44.6%/-68.0%) 0.66x | 23 | 4.3 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 25% | (163.7%/1420.6%) 0.12x | (-33.3%/-86.6%) 0.38x | 29 | 3.4 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 56% | (89.3%/99.7%) 0.90x | (-27.1%/-35.1%) 0.77x | 28 | 3.8 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 26% | (-39.1%/1194.5%) -0.03x | (-64.5%/-75.1%) 0.86x | 22 | 3.4 |