Range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ TSLA • Daily
This strategy enters once price action beraks through the range of the last 20 candles, while accompanied with elevated trading volume. It exits once price closes below an SMA(20). The idea is to follow trends, riding momentum confirmed by volume.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 15.1 years of TSLA • Daily (Tesla, Inc.) data, from June 29, 2010 to July 25, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Range breakout on 15.1 years of TSLA • Daily candles. This backtest resulted in 57 positions, with the average win rate of 42% and reward-risk ratio of 4.83. If you assume that 4.83 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 17.1 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 57 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 2791.10% vs 24273.60% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -42.70% vs -75.00% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 29.60% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 42.0%, vs 17.1% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 4.83
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 30% time-in-market, you get 11.50% of the asset upside potential, and 56.93% of the asset downside potential.
Range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa
D Chart(high) > D Range (20, 0), High (1 candles ago)
All of the following: (within 5 candles)
D Relative Volume (20, SMA, 1) > 1.5Range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # Delta D Chart(close) < D Range (20, 0), Middle
Range breakout @ TSLA • Daily (2791.1%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThese results show some interesting patterns, but I have concerns about the statistical robustness. 57 trades over 15 years is quite thin - that's only 0.6 trades per month. This makes the metrics less reliable since we don't have enough data points for proper statistical significance.
The risk/reward ratio of 4.83 looks good on paper, and the win rate leeway is impressive at 41.83% above the minimal required win rate. However, I am skeptical about sustainability. The strategy significantly underperforms buy & hold (2791% vs 24273%), while still having notable drawdowns of -42.7%. This suggests the strategy might be missing important moves in the underlying asset, which is confirmed by the low market exposure of 29.6%.
The volatility metrics and Sharpe ratio of 0.25 are concerning - they indicate poor risk-adjusted returns. While the strategy shows some promising aspects like good risk/reward, I would want to see more trades and better risk-adjusted performance metrics before considering real implementation. Maybe adjusting the entry parameters could increase trade frequency without sacrificing the positive risk/reward characteristics.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this TSLA strategy is looking pretty interesting! 🚀 The risk/reward ratio of 4.83 is absolutely fire - meaning when we win, we win BIG compared to our losses. That's the kind of asymmetric betting I live for at Wendy's! 🍔
The win rate at 42% might look kinda sus at first, but check this out - we only need a 17.2% win rate to be profitable with these R/R numbers. That's like a 41.83% cushion above what we need, which is straight-up gorgeous! Even though we're losing more trades than we're winning, when we hit, we're averaging 27.42% gains compared to just -5.68% on losses. That's the kind of setup that gets me hyped! 💎🙌
That said, gotta keep it real - the max drawdown of -42.7% is no joke, and we're way underperforming buy & hold on TSLA (2791% vs 24273%). But hey, we're only exposed to the market 29.6% of the time, so we're taking way less risk. Plus, those annual returns in recent years are still pretty juicy - like that 909% in the last year! Just gotta have the stomach for those 5-trade losing streaks that can pop up. Not financial advice, but I'm definitely saving this one to my trading journal! 📈
Sarah
AuthorDios mío, this is quite a disaster hiding behind fancy numbers! You're getting absolutely destroyed compared to buy & hold (2,791% vs 24,273%). That's embarassing!
The win rate is pathetic at 42%, although I must admit the risk/reward ratio of 4.83 somewhat saves your ass here. This is why you're still making money despite being wrong more than half the time. But let's be real - with that market exposure of only 29.6%, you're basically sitting on your hands most of the time while Tesla is making otros people rich!
The trading frequency is ridiculously low - 0.6 trades per month? Are you running a retirement home or a trading strategy? With only 57 trades over 15 years, these statistics are about as reliable as my ex-novio's promises.
One good thing - your strategy has decent protection against drawdowns (-42.7% vs Tesla's -75%). But honestly, who cares when you're leaving so much money on the table? This is like being proud of not losing much in a race you're not even properly running.
Look, if you want to trade Tesla, either commit to it properly or just buy and hold. This half-pregnant approach is making you look like an amateur. And por favor, don't tell me you're paying commissions on these trades - that would be the cherry on top of this mediocre cake!
Tabular metrics of Range breakout backtested on TSLA • Daily
| Total Trades | 57 | Net Profit | 2791.1% | Buy & Hold Profit | 24273.6% |
| Win Rate | 42% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 4.83 | Max Drawdown | -42.7% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -75.0% | Exposure | 29.6% | Avg Candles in Position | 18.7 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.25 | Sortino Ratio | 0.94 | Realized Volatility | 26.80% |
| Max Winning Streak | 3 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.6 | Max Losing Streak | 5 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.2 | Avg Trades per Month | 0.6 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.0 |
| Return Std Dev | 24.7 | Loss Std Dev | 3.6 | Win Std Dev | 28.4 |
| Expectancy | 1.5 | Beta | 0.3 |
All backtests for Range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 26% | (0.4%/-0.5%) -0.80x | (-2.3%/-4.5%) 0.51x | 46 | 1.3 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 22% | (-0.5%/0.9%) -0.56x | (-0.6%/-0.7%) 0.86x | 22 | 2.8 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 32% | (0.6%/-1.4%) -0.43x | (-1.9%/-4.1%) 0.46x | 38 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 25% | (7.8%/20.4%) 0.38x | (-3.7%/-5.3%) 0.70x | 34 | 3.0 |
PLTR • 1 Minute | 28% | (1.3%/15.0%) 0.09x | (-5.4%/-12.9%) 0.42x | 36 | 1.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 32% | (1.6%/6.6%) 0.24x | (-1.1%/-1.5%) 0.73x | 35 | 2.4 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 26% | (0.7%/-0.2%) -3.50x | (-12.8%/-19.2%) 0.67x | 35 | 1.9 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 31% | (-0.5%/3.3%) -0.15x | (-3.2%/-5.1%) 0.63x | 32 | 2.0 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 33% | (10.5%/14.3%) 0.73x | (-4.9%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 36 | 2.4 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 23% | (1.1%/1.8%) 0.61x | (-1.2%/-4.3%) 0.28x | 39 | 1.8 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (9.4%/35.8%) 0.26x | (-5.4%/-8.3%) 0.65x | 37 | 2.2 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 30% | (19.8%/37.4%) 0.53x | (-28.5%/-42.8%) 0.67x | 46 | 1.4 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 31% | (43.5%/467.7%) 0.09x | (-32.3%/-46.5%) 0.69x | 40 | 1.9 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (5.1%/13.1%) 0.39x | (-9.7%/-20.7%) 0.47x | 39 | 1.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 28% | (30.7%/25.4%) 1.21x | (-21.4%/-55.3%) 0.39x | 40 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (23.2%/39.5%) 0.59x | (-5.3%/-23.8%) 0.22x | 41 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 34% | (0.5%/70.3%) 0.01x | (-18.7%/-30.6%) 0.61x | 34 | 2.0 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 30% | (1.6%/7.1%) 0.23x | (-6.8%/-9.0%) 0.76x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 38% | (39.3%/122.5%) 0.32x | (-19.5%/-22.2%) 0.88x | 39 | 2.2 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 44% | (555.6%/3243.4%) 0.17x | (-52.5%/-68.0%) 0.77x | 46 | 2.1 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 38% | (449.7%/1466.7%) 0.31x | (-56.3%/-86.6%) 0.65x | 43 | 2.4 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (28.0%/107.0%) 0.26x | (-17.4%/-35.1%) 0.50x | 40 | 2.0 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 39% | (1353.0%/1305.7%) 1.04x | (-40.8%/-75.1%) 0.54x | 39 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 33% | (60.9%/145.2%) 0.42x | (-15.7%/-26.9%) 0.58x | 39 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 35% | (549.0%/1346.8%) 0.41x | (-54.7%/-76.6%) 0.71x | 47 | 3.3 |
GLD • Daily | 32% | (83.3%/592.8%) 0.14x | (-21.7%/-45.3%) 0.48x | 48 | 1.8 |
NVDA • Daily | 32% | (6469.1%/396269.9%) 0.02x | (-55.8%/-90.0%) 0.62x | 50 | 2.7 |
SPY • Daily | 22% | (90.1%/1344.4%) 0.07x | (-15.9%/-56.7%) 0.28x | 49 | 2.3 |
TSLA • Daily | 30% | (2791.1%/24273.6%) 0.11x | (-42.7%/-75.0%) 0.57x | 42 | 4.8 |
WMT • Daily | 30% | (30.4%/10116.3%) 0.00x | (-67.6%/-50.6%) 1.34x | 39 | 1.8 |