we backtest strategies, so you don't have to

Range breakoutlong
Backtest Results @ NVDA • Daily

This strategy enters once price action beraks through the range of the last 20 candles, while accompanied with elevated trading volume. It exits once price closes below an SMA(20). The idea is to follow trends, riding momentum confirmed by volume.

Equity Curve

Backtest covers 26.5 years of NVDA • Daily (NVIDIA Corporation) data, from January 22, 1999 to July 25, 2025.

Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.

Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.

Strategy

Asset

Strategy Drawdown

Asset Drawdown

So, we have backtested Range breakout on 26.5 years of NVDA • Daily candles. This backtest resulted in 112 positions, with the average win rate of 50% and reward-risk ratio of 2.68. If you assume that 2.68 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 27.2 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:

Total Return: Total Return: 6469.10% vs 396269.90% for the asset
Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -55.80% vs -90.00% for the asset
Exposure: Exposure: 32.20% time in the market
Win Rate: Win Rate: 50.0%, vs 27.2% minimum
Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 2.68

With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 32% time-in-market, you get 1.63% of the asset upside potential, and 62.00% of the asset downside potential.

Range breakout: enter a position when

All of the following: # Papa
  D Chart(high) > D Range (20, 0), High (1 candles ago)
  All of the following: (within 5 candles)
      D Relative Volume (20, SMA, 1) > 1.5

Range breakout: exit a position when

All of the following: # Delta
  D Chart(close) < D Range (20, 0), Middle

Range breakout @ NVDA • Daily (6469.1%) backtest results explained by Alex C

Alex C

Author

Ze numbers look interesting, but I have some concerns about zis strategy. Ze performance appears quite good on ze surface with a 2.68 Risk/Reward ratio and 50% win rate, which is mathematically solid. However, ze market exposure of only 32.2% while having such high returns makes me skeptical.

Ze biggest red flag for me is ze massive difference between ze strategy's net profit (6469.1%) and ze buy & hold profit (396269.9%). Zis suggests ze strategy is actually underperforming ze market significantly despite ze good-looking metrics. Ze Sharpe ratio of 0.18 is also quite poor, indicating ze risk-adjusted returns are not optimal. Ze high drawdown of 55.8% is concerning for a strategy zat is only in ze market one-third of ze time.

From a pure mathematical perspective, ze win rate leeway of 49.73% above ze minimal required win rate is excellent. But I would need to see more data about ze distribution of returns and how ze strategy performs in different market conditions. Ze average of 0.7 trades per month is quite low for statistical significance over even such a long period. Zis makes me worry about ze robustness of ze strategy.

Tabular metrics of Range breakout backtested on NVDA • Daily

Total Trades	112	Net Profit	6469.1%	Buy & Hold Profit	396269.9%
Win Rate	50%	Reward/Risk Ratio	2.68	Max Drawdown	-55.8%
Asset Max Drawdown	-90.0%	Exposure	32.2%	Avg Candles in Position	18.2
Sharpe Ratio	0.18	Sortino Ratio	0.80	Realized Volatility	25.53%
Max Winning Streak	11	Avg Winning Streak	2.4	Max Losing Streak	7
Avg Losing Streak	2.4	Avg Trades per Month	0.7	Avg Trades per Day	0.0
Return Std Dev	16.1	Loss Std Dev	4.4	Win Std Dev	16.5
Expectancy	0.8	Beta	0.26

All backtests for Range breakout

backtest	exposure	peformance vs asset	drawdown vs asset	win%	reward/risk
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute	26%	(0.4%/-0.5%) -0.80x	(-2.3%/-4.5%) 0.51x	46	1.3
EURUSD • 1 Minute	22%	(-0.5%/0.9%) -0.56x	(-0.6%/-0.7%) 0.86x	22	2.8
GLD • 1 Minute	32%	(0.6%/-1.4%) -0.43x	(-1.9%/-4.1%) 0.46x	38	1.8
NVDA • 1 Minute	25%	(7.8%/20.4%) 0.38x	(-3.7%/-5.3%) 0.70x	34	3.0
PLTR • 1 Minute	28%	(1.3%/15.0%) 0.09x	(-5.4%/-12.9%) 0.42x	36	1.9
SPY • 1 Minute	32%	(1.6%/6.6%) 0.24x	(-1.1%/-1.5%) 0.73x	35	2.4
TSLA • 1 Minute	26%	(0.7%/-0.2%) -3.50x	(-12.8%/-19.2%) 0.67x	35	1.9
WMT • 1 Minute	31%	(-0.5%/3.3%) -0.15x	(-3.2%/-5.1%) 0.63x	32	2.0
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes	33%	(10.5%/14.3%) 0.73x	(-4.9%/-12.1%) 0.40x	36	2.4
EURUSD • 10 Minutes	23%	(1.1%/1.8%) 0.61x	(-1.2%/-4.3%) 0.28x	39	1.8
GLD • 10 Minutes	38%	(9.4%/35.8%) 0.26x	(-5.4%/-8.3%) 0.65x	37	2.2
NVDA • 10 Minutes	30%	(19.8%/37.4%) 0.53x	(-28.5%/-42.8%) 0.67x	46	1.4
PLTR • 10 Minutes	31%	(43.5%/467.7%) 0.09x	(-32.3%/-46.5%) 0.69x	40	1.9
SPY • 10 Minutes	33%	(5.1%/13.1%) 0.39x	(-9.7%/-20.7%) 0.47x	39	1.8
TSLA • 10 Minutes	28%	(30.7%/25.4%) 1.21x	(-21.4%/-55.3%) 0.39x	40	1.9
WMT • 10 Minutes	32%	(23.2%/39.5%) 0.59x	(-5.3%/-23.8%) 0.22x	41	2.1
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour	34%	(0.5%/70.3%) 0.01x	(-18.7%/-30.6%) 0.61x	34	2.0
EURUSD • 1 Hour	30%	(1.6%/7.1%) 0.23x	(-6.8%/-9.0%) 0.76x	34	2.1
GLD • 1 Hour	38%	(39.3%/122.5%) 0.32x	(-19.5%/-22.2%) 0.88x	39	2.2
NVDA • 1 Hour	44%	(555.6%/3243.4%) 0.17x	(-52.5%/-68.0%) 0.77x	46	2.1
PLTR • 1 Hour	38%	(449.7%/1466.7%) 0.31x	(-56.3%/-86.6%) 0.65x	43	2.4
SPY • 1 Hour	36%	(28.0%/107.0%) 0.26x	(-17.4%/-35.1%) 0.50x	40	2.0
TSLA • 1 Hour	39%	(1353.0%/1305.7%) 1.04x	(-40.8%/-75.1%) 0.54x	39	3.1
WMT • 1 Hour	33%	(60.9%/145.2%) 0.42x	(-15.7%/-26.9%) 0.58x	39	2.4
BTCUSDT • Daily	35%	(549.0%/1346.8%) 0.41x	(-54.7%/-76.6%) 0.71x	47	3.3
GLD • Daily	32%	(83.3%/592.8%) 0.14x	(-21.7%/-45.3%) 0.48x	48	1.8
NVDA • Daily	32%	(6469.1%/396269.9%) 0.02x	(-55.8%/-90.0%) 0.62x	50	2.7
SPY • Daily	22%	(90.1%/1344.4%) 0.07x	(-15.9%/-56.7%) 0.28x	49	2.3
TSLA • Daily	30%	(2791.1%/24273.6%) 0.11x	(-42.7%/-75.0%) 0.57x	42	4.8
WMT • Daily	30%	(30.4%/10116.3%) 0.00x	(-67.6%/-50.6%) 1.34x	39	1.8

Range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ NVDA • Daily