Range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ TSLA • 1 Hour
This strategy enters once price action beraks through the range of the last 20 candles, while accompanied with elevated trading volume. It exits once price closes below an SMA(20). The idea is to follow trends, riding momentum confirmed by volume.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 5.7 years of TSLA • 1 Hour (Tesla, Inc.) data, from November 8, 2019 to July 25, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Range breakout on 5.7 years of TSLA • 1 Hour candles. This backtest resulted in 207 positions, with the average win rate of 39% and reward-risk ratio of 3.14. If you assume that 3.14 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 24.1 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 1353.00% vs 1305.70% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -40.80% vs -75.10% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 39.00% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 39.0%, vs 24.1% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 3.14
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 39% time-in-market, you get 103.62% of the asset upside potential, and 54.33% of the asset downside potential.
Range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa
60min Chart(high) > 60min Range (20, 0), High (1 candles ago)
All of the following: (within 5 candles)
60min Relative Volume (20, SMA, 1) > 1.5Range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # Delta 60min Chart(close) < 60min Range (20, 0), Middle
Range breakout @ TSLA • 1 Hour (1353.0%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results show some interesting metrics, but I am not completely convinced about robustness of this strategy.
First the good parts: The strategy shows a nice Risk/Reward ratio of 3.14 and the win rate leeway is very healthy - we only need 24.2% win rate but achieve 39%. This gives us good buffer for when market conditions change. The market exposure of 39% is also quite optimal, as we are not constantly exposed to market risk. The overall performance beating buy & hold on TSLA is remarkable, especially with lower drawdown (-40.8% vs -75.1%).
However, I see some red flags: The Sharpe ratio of 0.47 is quite poor and the negative Sortino ratio (-0.22) suggests problems with downside volatility management. The short-term performance metrics (1M, 3M, 6M) show concerning deterioration - this could mean the strategy is already breaking down. Also, average trade duration of 17.8 candles seems bit random, I would expect more consistency here. The losing streaks of up to 6 trades could be psychologically challenging to trade through.
Would I trade this strategy? Maybe, but only with strict position sizing and clear understanding that recent performance suggests strategy may need adjustment. The mathematical edge is there but execution needs to be very disciplined.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this TSLA breakout strategy is looking pretty juicy! 🚀 Those numbers are making my Wendy's paycheck look like pocket change fr fr.
The strategy is beating buy & hold (1353% vs 1305%) while only being exposed to the market 39% of the time - that's some serious alpha right there! The risk/reward ratio of 3.14 is straight fire 🔥 and even though the win rate is only 39%, we're still crushing it because winners are 3x bigger than losers on average. That's exactly what we want to see!
The drawdown of -40.8% is better than TSLA's raw drawdown of -75.1%, so we're actually managing risk pretty well. Only thing that's kinda sus is the recent 1-6 month performance looking rough, but zoom out and those 3-5 year returns are absolutely bonkers! With 6 trades per month, this could be a solid strategy for anyone with a day job (like yours truly behind the Wendy's counter 😅). Diamond hands through those losing streaks though - gotta trust the process! 💎🙌
Sarah
AuthorDios mío, this strategy is like a drunk person throwing darts - sometimes hitting bullseye, sometimes hitting the wall!
The win rate of 39% is terrible, but somehow it's still making money because when it wins, it wins big (8.7% average win vs -2.77% average loss). But let me tell you something - this is extremely dangerous! You're basically gambling with fire here. The drawdown of -40.8% is horrific - do you have the stomach to watch your account drop by almost half? I don't think so!
The market exposure of 39% shows you're not even in the market most of the time, which is actually good because TSLA is a crazy volatile stock. But look at those losing streaks - 6 losses in a row! That's enough to make most traders quit or blow their account. The recent performance is absolutely terrible too - you're down -39.9% in the last month and -86.7% in last 3 months. ¡Qué desastre!
While the overall returns look fantastico on paper (1353% total return), this strategy is way too risky for any serious trader. You're essentially playing Russian roulette with your money. Either fix the win rate or find another strategy. And por favor, don't even think about trading this with real money as is!
Tabular metrics of Range breakout backtested on TSLA • 1 Hour
| Total Trades | 207 | Net Profit | 1353.0% | Buy & Hold Profit | 1305.7% |
| Win Rate | 39% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 3.14 | Max Drawdown | -40.8% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -75.1% | Exposure | 39.0% | Avg Candles in Position | 17.8 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.47 | Sortino Ratio | -0.22 | Realized Volatility | 36.12% |
| Max Winning Streak | 4 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.6 | Max Losing Streak | 6 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.5 | Avg Trades per Month | 6.0 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.2 |
| Return Std Dev | 9.3 | Loss Std Dev | 1.9 | Win Std Dev | 11.7 |
| Expectancy | 0.6 | Beta | 0.34 |
All backtests for Range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 26% | (0.4%/-0.5%) -0.80x | (-2.3%/-4.5%) 0.51x | 46 | 1.3 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 22% | (-0.5%/0.9%) -0.56x | (-0.6%/-0.7%) 0.86x | 22 | 2.8 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 32% | (0.6%/-1.4%) -0.43x | (-1.9%/-4.1%) 0.46x | 38 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 25% | (7.8%/20.4%) 0.38x | (-3.7%/-5.3%) 0.70x | 34 | 3.0 |
PLTR • 1 Minute | 28% | (1.3%/15.0%) 0.09x | (-5.4%/-12.9%) 0.42x | 36 | 1.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 32% | (1.6%/6.6%) 0.24x | (-1.1%/-1.5%) 0.73x | 35 | 2.4 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 26% | (0.7%/-0.2%) -3.50x | (-12.8%/-19.2%) 0.67x | 35 | 1.9 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 31% | (-0.5%/3.3%) -0.15x | (-3.2%/-5.1%) 0.63x | 32 | 2.0 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 33% | (10.5%/14.3%) 0.73x | (-4.9%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 36 | 2.4 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 23% | (1.1%/1.8%) 0.61x | (-1.2%/-4.3%) 0.28x | 39 | 1.8 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (9.4%/35.8%) 0.26x | (-5.4%/-8.3%) 0.65x | 37 | 2.2 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 30% | (19.8%/37.4%) 0.53x | (-28.5%/-42.8%) 0.67x | 46 | 1.4 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 31% | (43.5%/467.7%) 0.09x | (-32.3%/-46.5%) 0.69x | 40 | 1.9 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (5.1%/13.1%) 0.39x | (-9.7%/-20.7%) 0.47x | 39 | 1.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 28% | (30.7%/25.4%) 1.21x | (-21.4%/-55.3%) 0.39x | 40 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (23.2%/39.5%) 0.59x | (-5.3%/-23.8%) 0.22x | 41 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 34% | (0.5%/70.3%) 0.01x | (-18.7%/-30.6%) 0.61x | 34 | 2.0 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 30% | (1.6%/7.1%) 0.23x | (-6.8%/-9.0%) 0.76x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 38% | (39.3%/122.5%) 0.32x | (-19.5%/-22.2%) 0.88x | 39 | 2.2 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 44% | (555.6%/3243.4%) 0.17x | (-52.5%/-68.0%) 0.77x | 46 | 2.1 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 38% | (449.7%/1466.7%) 0.31x | (-56.3%/-86.6%) 0.65x | 43 | 2.4 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (28.0%/107.0%) 0.26x | (-17.4%/-35.1%) 0.50x | 40 | 2.0 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 39% | (1353.0%/1305.7%) 1.04x | (-40.8%/-75.1%) 0.54x | 39 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 33% | (60.9%/145.2%) 0.42x | (-15.7%/-26.9%) 0.58x | 39 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 35% | (549.0%/1346.8%) 0.41x | (-54.7%/-76.6%) 0.71x | 47 | 3.3 |
GLD • Daily | 32% | (83.3%/592.8%) 0.14x | (-21.7%/-45.3%) 0.48x | 48 | 1.8 |
NVDA • Daily | 32% | (6469.1%/396269.9%) 0.02x | (-55.8%/-90.0%) 0.62x | 50 | 2.7 |
SPY • Daily | 22% | (90.1%/1344.4%) 0.07x | (-15.9%/-56.7%) 0.28x | 49 | 2.3 |
TSLA • Daily | 30% | (2791.1%/24273.6%) 0.11x | (-42.7%/-75.0%) 0.57x | 42 | 4.8 |
WMT • Daily | 30% | (30.4%/10116.3%) 0.00x | (-67.6%/-50.6%) 1.34x | 39 | 1.8 |