Range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ NVDA • 1 Hour
This strategy enters once price action beraks through the range of the last 20 candles, while accompanied with elevated trading volume. It exits once price closes below an SMA(20). The idea is to follow trends, riding momentum confirmed by volume.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 5.7 years of NVDA • 1 Hour (NVIDIA Corporation) data, from November 8, 2019 to July 25, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Range breakout on 5.7 years of NVDA • 1 Hour candles. This backtest resulted in 218 positions, with the average win rate of 46% and reward-risk ratio of 2.10. If you assume that 2.10 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 32.3 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 555.60% vs 3243.40% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -52.50% vs -68.00% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 44.30% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 46.0%, vs 32.3% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 2.10
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 44% time-in-market, you get 17.13% of the asset upside potential, and 77.21% of the asset downside potential.
Range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa
60min Chart(high) > 60min Range (20, 0), High (1 candles ago)
All of the following: (within 5 candles)
60min Relative Volume (20, SMA, 1) > 1.5Range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # Delta 60min Chart(close) < 60min Range (20, 0), Middle
Range breakout @ NVDA • 1 Hour (555.6%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe strategy shows some interesting charakteristics, but I have concerns about few things that make me skeptical.
First the positives: The Risk/Reward ratio of 2.10 combined with the actual win rate of 46% gives a good margin above the minimal required win rate of 32.3%. This is mathematically sound and shows the strategy has a solid foundation. The average trades per month at 6.3 provides enough statistical significance over the 5.7 year period. The market exposure of 44.3% suggests good selectivity in trade entries.
However, there are red flags I cannot ignore from pure mathematical perspective. The max drawdown of 52.5% is extremely high for a strategy that only captures upside breakouts. This suggests the strategy might be too aggressive in its entry criteria. The Sharpe ratio of 1.22 is mediocre for a directional strategy, indicating suboptimal risk-adjusted returns. Most concerning is that the strategy significantly underperforms buy & hold (555.6% vs 3243.4%), which makes me question if the complexity is worth it at all. The correlation of 0.53 to the underlying suggests it's not providing meaningful diversification benefits either.
From systematic trading perspective, I would want to see improvements in the drawdown characteristics before considering this viable. Perhaps adding more stringent entry filters or position sizing rules could help optimize the risk-adjusted performance metrics.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this NVDA range breakout strategy is looking pretty juicy! 🚀 The numbers are giving me some serious hopium vibes, but let's keep it real.
First off, that 2.1 Risk/Reward ratio is straight fire 🔥 - we're making twice as much on winners as we lose on losers. With a 46% win rate, that's actually solid AF considering we only need 32.3% to break even. The strategy's making good bank with 555.6% total profit, though it's not beating buy & hold (but who is in this NVDA bull run, honestly?).
The drawdown of -52.5% is pretty spicy though, ngl. 😅 That's gonna test your diamond hands for sure. But peep this - we're only in the market 44.3% of the time, which means we're not just YOLOing and hoping for the best. The strategy's being selective with its 6.3 trades per month, and that Sharpe ratio of 1.22 shows we're not just gambling here.
Would I throw my Wendy's paycheck at this? Probably! The math checks out, and while past performance doesn't guarantee future tendies, those stats are looking clean enough to make me want to risk it for the biscuit. Just gotta be ready for those 7-trade losing streaks when they come! 💎🙌
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this strategy is a complete disaster compared to simply buying and holding NVDA! Only 555% profit versus 3243% for buy & hold? That's pathetic!
The win rate is absolutely mediocre at 46% - you're losing more often than winning. Yes, yes, I know the Risk/Reward is 2.1 which technically makes it matematically viable, but come on! That -52.5% drawdown is going to make you vomit your breakfast when it happens. And it will happen, mark my words.
Look, the only decent thing here is the Win Rate Leeway - you have good margin above the minimal required win rate. But who cares when the strategy is clearly inferior to just buying and holding like a lazy couch potato? The market exposure of 44.3% means you're missing out on more than half of the moves. That's why your returns are so poor compared to buy & hold!
I don't want to be mean, but whoever designed this strategy should probably stick to their day job. The only thing this backtest proves is that you've found a complicated way to make less money while taking on significant drawdown risk. If you're going to trade NVDA, either find something much better or just buy and hold it like a normal person.
Tabular metrics of Range breakout backtested on NVDA • 1 Hour
| Total Trades | 218 | Net Profit | 555.6% | Buy & Hold Profit | 3243.4% |
| Win Rate | 46% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 2.10 | Max Drawdown | -52.5% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -68.0% | Exposure | 44.3% | Avg Candles in Position | 19.3 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.22 | Sortino Ratio | 1.08 | Realized Volatility | 26.85% |
| Max Winning Streak | 6 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.8 | Max Losing Streak | 7 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.1 | Avg Trades per Month | 6.3 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.2 |
| Return Std Dev | 5.5 | Loss Std Dev | 1.8 | Win Std Dev | 5.7 |
| Expectancy | 0.4 | Beta | 0.3 |
All backtests for Range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 26% | (0.4%/-0.5%) -0.80x | (-2.3%/-4.5%) 0.51x | 46 | 1.3 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 22% | (-0.5%/0.9%) -0.56x | (-0.6%/-0.7%) 0.86x | 22 | 2.8 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 32% | (0.6%/-1.4%) -0.43x | (-1.9%/-4.1%) 0.46x | 38 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 25% | (7.8%/20.4%) 0.38x | (-3.7%/-5.3%) 0.70x | 34 | 3.0 |
PLTR • 1 Minute | 28% | (1.3%/15.0%) 0.09x | (-5.4%/-12.9%) 0.42x | 36 | 1.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 32% | (1.6%/6.6%) 0.24x | (-1.1%/-1.5%) 0.73x | 35 | 2.4 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 26% | (0.7%/-0.2%) -3.50x | (-12.8%/-19.2%) 0.67x | 35 | 1.9 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 31% | (-0.5%/3.3%) -0.15x | (-3.2%/-5.1%) 0.63x | 32 | 2.0 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 33% | (10.5%/14.3%) 0.73x | (-4.9%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 36 | 2.4 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 23% | (1.1%/1.8%) 0.61x | (-1.2%/-4.3%) 0.28x | 39 | 1.8 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (9.4%/35.8%) 0.26x | (-5.4%/-8.3%) 0.65x | 37 | 2.2 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 30% | (19.8%/37.4%) 0.53x | (-28.5%/-42.8%) 0.67x | 46 | 1.4 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 31% | (43.5%/467.7%) 0.09x | (-32.3%/-46.5%) 0.69x | 40 | 1.9 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (5.1%/13.1%) 0.39x | (-9.7%/-20.7%) 0.47x | 39 | 1.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 28% | (30.7%/25.4%) 1.21x | (-21.4%/-55.3%) 0.39x | 40 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (23.2%/39.5%) 0.59x | (-5.3%/-23.8%) 0.22x | 41 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 34% | (0.5%/70.3%) 0.01x | (-18.7%/-30.6%) 0.61x | 34 | 2.0 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 30% | (1.6%/7.1%) 0.23x | (-6.8%/-9.0%) 0.76x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 38% | (39.3%/122.5%) 0.32x | (-19.5%/-22.2%) 0.88x | 39 | 2.2 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 44% | (555.6%/3243.4%) 0.17x | (-52.5%/-68.0%) 0.77x | 46 | 2.1 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 38% | (449.7%/1466.7%) 0.31x | (-56.3%/-86.6%) 0.65x | 43 | 2.4 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (28.0%/107.0%) 0.26x | (-17.4%/-35.1%) 0.50x | 40 | 2.0 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 39% | (1353.0%/1305.7%) 1.04x | (-40.8%/-75.1%) 0.54x | 39 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 33% | (60.9%/145.2%) 0.42x | (-15.7%/-26.9%) 0.58x | 39 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 35% | (549.0%/1346.8%) 0.41x | (-54.7%/-76.6%) 0.71x | 47 | 3.3 |
GLD • Daily | 32% | (83.3%/592.8%) 0.14x | (-21.7%/-45.3%) 0.48x | 48 | 1.8 |
NVDA • Daily | 32% | (6469.1%/396269.9%) 0.02x | (-55.8%/-90.0%) 0.62x | 50 | 2.7 |
SPY • Daily | 22% | (90.1%/1344.4%) 0.07x | (-15.9%/-56.7%) 0.28x | 49 | 2.3 |
TSLA • Daily | 30% | (2791.1%/24273.6%) 0.11x | (-42.7%/-75.0%) 0.57x | 42 | 4.8 |
WMT • Daily | 30% | (30.4%/10116.3%) 0.00x | (-67.6%/-50.6%) 1.34x | 39 | 1.8 |