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Range breakoutlong
Backtest Results @ BTCUSDT • 1 Hour

This strategy enters once price action beraks through the range of the last 20 candles, while accompanied with elevated trading volume. It exits once price closes below an SMA(20). The idea is to follow trends, riding momentum confirmed by volume.

Equity Curve

Backtest covers 13.9 months of BTCUSDT • 1 Hour (Bitcoin vs Tether, Binance US) data, from June 4, 2024 to July 25, 2025.

Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.

Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.

Strategy

Asset

Strategy Drawdown

Asset Drawdown

So, we have backtested Range breakout on 13.9 months of BTCUSDT • 1 Hour candles. This backtest resulted in 226 positions, with the average win rate of 34% and reward-risk ratio of 2.04. If you assume that 2.04 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 32.9 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:

Total Return: Total Return: 0.50% vs 70.30% for the asset
Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -18.70% vs -30.60% for the asset
Exposure: Exposure: 33.50% time in the market
Win Rate: Win Rate: 34.0%, vs 32.9% minimum
Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 2.04

With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 34% time-in-market, you get 0.71% of the asset upside potential, and 61.11% of the asset downside potential.

Range breakout: enter a position when

All of the following: # Papa
  60min Chart(high) > 60min Range (20, 0), High (1 candles ago)
  All of the following: (within 5 candles)
      60min Relative Volume (20, SMA, 1) > 1.5

Range breakout: exit a position when

All of the following: # Delta
  60min Chart(close) < 60min Range (20, 0), Middle

Range breakout @ BTCUSDT • 1 Hour (0.5%) backtest results explained by Sarah

Sarah

Author

Madre de Dios, this strategy is a complete desastre! Let me tell you why you should throw this garbage straight to papelera.

First of all, a measly 0.5% net profit over almost 14 months while Bitcoin itself went up 70%? That's not just bad, that's catastrophicamente bad! You're basically paying commisions to your broker to lose money. The market exposure of 33.5% shows you're missing most of the actual moves.

The win rate is atrocious - only 34% of trades are profitable. Yes, yes, I can see the Risk/Reward ratio of 2.04 technically makes it mathematically viable, but those 11-trade losing streaks will destroy your account and your mental health. No trader with half a brain would tolerate such mediocre performance.

The most ridiculus thing is the -18.7% drawdown for such tiny returns. You're taking enormous risks for practicamente nothing! The negative Sharpe ratio just confirms what I already knew - this strategy is pure basura.

If you're thinking of trading this live, do yourself a favor and just buy-and-hold Bitcoin instead. Or better yet, go back to drawing board and create something that actually works. This strategy is dead on arrival.

Tabular metrics of Range breakout backtested on BTCUSDT • 1 Hour

Total Trades	226	Net Profit	0.5%	Buy & Hold Profit	70.3%
Win Rate	34%	Reward/Risk Ratio	2.04	Max Drawdown	-18.7%
Asset Max Drawdown	-30.6%	Exposure	33.5%	Avg Candles in Position	13.8
Sharpe Ratio	-0.11	Sortino Ratio	0.20	Realized Volatility	29.84%
Max Winning Streak	3	Avg Winning Streak	1.5	Max Losing Streak	11
Avg Losing Streak	2.9	Avg Trades per Month	32.6	Avg Trades per Day	1.1
Return Std Dev	2.0	Loss Std Dev	0.8	Win Std Dev	2.2
Expectancy	0.0	Beta	0.32

All backtests for Range breakout

backtest	exposure	peformance vs asset	drawdown vs asset	win%	reward/risk
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute	26%	(0.4%/-0.5%) -0.80x	(-2.3%/-4.5%) 0.51x	46	1.3
EURUSD • 1 Minute	22%	(-0.5%/0.9%) -0.56x	(-0.6%/-0.7%) 0.86x	22	2.8
GLD • 1 Minute	32%	(0.6%/-1.4%) -0.43x	(-1.9%/-4.1%) 0.46x	38	1.8
NVDA • 1 Minute	25%	(7.8%/20.4%) 0.38x	(-3.7%/-5.3%) 0.70x	34	3.0
PLTR • 1 Minute	28%	(1.3%/15.0%) 0.09x	(-5.4%/-12.9%) 0.42x	36	1.9
SPY • 1 Minute	32%	(1.6%/6.6%) 0.24x	(-1.1%/-1.5%) 0.73x	35	2.4
TSLA • 1 Minute	26%	(0.7%/-0.2%) -3.50x	(-12.8%/-19.2%) 0.67x	35	1.9
WMT • 1 Minute	31%	(-0.5%/3.3%) -0.15x	(-3.2%/-5.1%) 0.63x	32	2.0
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes	33%	(10.5%/14.3%) 0.73x	(-4.9%/-12.1%) 0.40x	36	2.4
EURUSD • 10 Minutes	23%	(1.1%/1.8%) 0.61x	(-1.2%/-4.3%) 0.28x	39	1.8
GLD • 10 Minutes	38%	(9.4%/35.8%) 0.26x	(-5.4%/-8.3%) 0.65x	37	2.2
NVDA • 10 Minutes	30%	(19.8%/37.4%) 0.53x	(-28.5%/-42.8%) 0.67x	46	1.4
PLTR • 10 Minutes	31%	(43.5%/467.7%) 0.09x	(-32.3%/-46.5%) 0.69x	40	1.9
SPY • 10 Minutes	33%	(5.1%/13.1%) 0.39x	(-9.7%/-20.7%) 0.47x	39	1.8
TSLA • 10 Minutes	28%	(30.7%/25.4%) 1.21x	(-21.4%/-55.3%) 0.39x	40	1.9
WMT • 10 Minutes	32%	(23.2%/39.5%) 0.59x	(-5.3%/-23.8%) 0.22x	41	2.1
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour	34%	(0.5%/70.3%) 0.01x	(-18.7%/-30.6%) 0.61x	34	2.0
EURUSD • 1 Hour	30%	(1.6%/7.1%) 0.23x	(-6.8%/-9.0%) 0.76x	34	2.1
GLD • 1 Hour	38%	(39.3%/122.5%) 0.32x	(-19.5%/-22.2%) 0.88x	39	2.2
NVDA • 1 Hour	44%	(555.6%/3243.4%) 0.17x	(-52.5%/-68.0%) 0.77x	46	2.1
PLTR • 1 Hour	38%	(449.7%/1466.7%) 0.31x	(-56.3%/-86.6%) 0.65x	43	2.4
SPY • 1 Hour	36%	(28.0%/107.0%) 0.26x	(-17.4%/-35.1%) 0.50x	40	2.0
TSLA • 1 Hour	39%	(1353.0%/1305.7%) 1.04x	(-40.8%/-75.1%) 0.54x	39	3.1
WMT • 1 Hour	33%	(60.9%/145.2%) 0.42x	(-15.7%/-26.9%) 0.58x	39	2.4
BTCUSDT • Daily	35%	(549.0%/1346.8%) 0.41x	(-54.7%/-76.6%) 0.71x	47	3.3
GLD • Daily	32%	(83.3%/592.8%) 0.14x	(-21.7%/-45.3%) 0.48x	48	1.8
NVDA • Daily	32%	(6469.1%/396269.9%) 0.02x	(-55.8%/-90.0%) 0.62x	50	2.7
SPY • Daily	22%	(90.1%/1344.4%) 0.07x	(-15.9%/-56.7%) 0.28x	49	2.3
TSLA • Daily	30%	(2791.1%/24273.6%) 0.11x	(-42.7%/-75.0%) 0.57x	42	4.8
WMT • Daily	30%	(30.4%/10116.3%) 0.00x	(-67.6%/-50.6%) 1.34x	39	1.8

Range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ BTCUSDT • 1 Hour