Range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ PLTR • 10 Minutes
This strategy enters once price action beraks through the range of the last 20 candles, while accompanied with elevated trading volume. It exits once price closes below an SMA(20). The idea is to follow trends, riding momentum confirmed by volume.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 12.5 months of PLTR • 10 Minutes (Palantir Technologies Inc.) data, from July 16, 2024 to July 25, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Range breakout on 12.5 months of PLTR • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 189 positions, with the average win rate of 40% and reward-risk ratio of 1.95. If you assume that 1.95 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 33.9 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 43.50% vs 467.70% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -32.30% vs -46.50% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 31.00% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 40.0%, vs 33.9% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.95
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 31% time-in-market, you get 9.30% of the asset upside potential, and 69.46% of the asset downside potential.
Range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa
10min Chart(high) > 10min Range (20, 0), High (1 candles ago)
All of the following: (within 5 candles)
10min Relative Volume (20, SMA, 1) > 1.5Range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # Delta 10min Chart(close) < 10min Range (20, 0), Middle
Range breakout @ PLTR • 10 Minutes (43.5%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results show some interesting patterns, but I have concerns about the strategy's overall stability.
The positive aspects first: The Risk/Reward ratio of 1.95 is quite solid, and the strategy shows good statistical robustness with a Win Rate Leeway of 39.66%. The actual win rate of 40% is well above the minimal required 33.9%, which gives good mathematical confidence. The average win size of 2.57% versus average loss of -1.31% also shows proper risk management charakteristics.
However, I see major red flags. The strategy severely underperforms buy & hold (43.5% vs 467.7%), which is problematic for such a volatile asset like PLTR. The market exposure of 31% suggests the strategy misses many major moves. The -32.3% maximum drawdown is concerning relative to the total return - this indicates high risk relative to reward. Also the 6-month performance showing -16.9% while the asset gained significantly rings alarm bells about the strategy's consistency. I would need to see more granular data about what causes these periodic performance swings.
From pure mathematical perspective, I would not trade this strategy live without significant modifications to improve the risk-adjusted returns and market exposure. The numbers suggest it is too conservative in catching upside while still taking on substantial drawdown risk.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, these PLTR backtest results are pretty interesting! 🚀 Let me break it down from a Wendy's degen perspective.
The strategy's showing some decent potential with that 43.5% net profit, though it's kinda getting smoked by the buy & hold returns (467.7%). But here's what gets me hyped - we're running a 40% win rate with a solid 1.95 risk/reward ratio, which means when we win, we win BIG! That 39.66% win rate leeway is straight-up fire, giving us plenty of breathing room above the minimum needed win rate. 🔥
The thing that's making me a bit nervous is that -32.3% max drawdown - that's a lot of tendies to lose at once, fam. But check this out - we're only exposed to the market 31% of the time, which means we're not gambling 24/7. Running about 1 trade per day is pretty chill, gives you time to work the Wendy's grill between trades lol. The Sharpe ratio at 1.02 isn't gonna blow anyone's mind, but it's not terrible either.
Overall, I'd say this strategy has some potential for us degens, but maybe needs some tweaking to catch more of that massive PLTR upside we're seeing in the buy & hold numbers. Could be worth throwing some paycheck money at it, but definitely not a YOLO situation. 💎🙌
Sarah
AuthorMadre mia, this strategy is like watching a drunk person trying to dance salsa! Let me tell you why this is absolutely terrible:
First of all, you're getting completely destroyed by buy & hold - 43.5% vs 467.7%? That's embarassing! You're basically paying commission fees to lose money compared to simply buying and holding. And with a market exposure of just 31%, you're missing most of the actual moves!
The win rate is pathetic - 40% winners? Even with a decent risk/reward ratio of 1.95, you're basically gambling here. Yes, you're above the minimal sufficient win rate, but that's like being proud of getting a D- on your exam. And that -32.3% drawdown? Dios mío, that's enough to give anyone a heart attack!
Look at those monthly numbers - you're all over the place like a crazy chicken! One month you make pennies (0.2%), then you lose -16.9% in 6 months. This inconsistency is exactly what kills trading accounts. The only decent period was 1 year, but that's probably just luck given everything else.
If this was my strategy, I would throw it in the basura immediately. It's clearly not capturing any meaningful edge in the market. Back to the drawing board, amigo!
Tabular metrics of Range breakout backtested on PLTR • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 189 | Net Profit | 43.5% | Buy & Hold Profit | 467.7% |
| Win Rate | 40% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.95 | Max Drawdown | -32.3% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -46.5% | Exposure | 31.0% | Avg Candles in Position | 15.4 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.02 | Sortino Ratio | 1.14 | Realized Volatility | 36.29% |
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.5 | Max Losing Streak | 6 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.3 | Avg Trades per Month | 30.3 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.0 |
| Return Std Dev | 2.7 | Loss Std Dev | 1.2 | Win Std Dev | 2.7 |
| Expectancy | 0.2 | Beta | 0.22 |
All backtests for Range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 26% | (0.4%/-0.5%) -0.80x | (-2.3%/-4.5%) 0.51x | 46 | 1.3 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 22% | (-0.5%/0.9%) -0.56x | (-0.6%/-0.7%) 0.86x | 22 | 2.8 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 32% | (0.6%/-1.4%) -0.43x | (-1.9%/-4.1%) 0.46x | 38 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 25% | (7.8%/20.4%) 0.38x | (-3.7%/-5.3%) 0.70x | 34 | 3.0 |
PLTR • 1 Minute | 28% | (1.3%/15.0%) 0.09x | (-5.4%/-12.9%) 0.42x | 36 | 1.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 32% | (1.6%/6.6%) 0.24x | (-1.1%/-1.5%) 0.73x | 35 | 2.4 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 26% | (0.7%/-0.2%) -3.50x | (-12.8%/-19.2%) 0.67x | 35 | 1.9 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 31% | (-0.5%/3.3%) -0.15x | (-3.2%/-5.1%) 0.63x | 32 | 2.0 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 33% | (10.5%/14.3%) 0.73x | (-4.9%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 36 | 2.4 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 23% | (1.1%/1.8%) 0.61x | (-1.2%/-4.3%) 0.28x | 39 | 1.8 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (9.4%/35.8%) 0.26x | (-5.4%/-8.3%) 0.65x | 37 | 2.2 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 30% | (19.8%/37.4%) 0.53x | (-28.5%/-42.8%) 0.67x | 46 | 1.4 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 31% | (43.5%/467.7%) 0.09x | (-32.3%/-46.5%) 0.69x | 40 | 1.9 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (5.1%/13.1%) 0.39x | (-9.7%/-20.7%) 0.47x | 39 | 1.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 28% | (30.7%/25.4%) 1.21x | (-21.4%/-55.3%) 0.39x | 40 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (23.2%/39.5%) 0.59x | (-5.3%/-23.8%) 0.22x | 41 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 34% | (0.5%/70.3%) 0.01x | (-18.7%/-30.6%) 0.61x | 34 | 2.0 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 30% | (1.6%/7.1%) 0.23x | (-6.8%/-9.0%) 0.76x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 38% | (39.3%/122.5%) 0.32x | (-19.5%/-22.2%) 0.88x | 39 | 2.2 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 44% | (555.6%/3243.4%) 0.17x | (-52.5%/-68.0%) 0.77x | 46 | 2.1 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 38% | (449.7%/1466.7%) 0.31x | (-56.3%/-86.6%) 0.65x | 43 | 2.4 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (28.0%/107.0%) 0.26x | (-17.4%/-35.1%) 0.50x | 40 | 2.0 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 39% | (1353.0%/1305.7%) 1.04x | (-40.8%/-75.1%) 0.54x | 39 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 33% | (60.9%/145.2%) 0.42x | (-15.7%/-26.9%) 0.58x | 39 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 35% | (549.0%/1346.8%) 0.41x | (-54.7%/-76.6%) 0.71x | 47 | 3.3 |
GLD • Daily | 32% | (83.3%/592.8%) 0.14x | (-21.7%/-45.3%) 0.48x | 48 | 1.8 |
NVDA • Daily | 32% | (6469.1%/396269.9%) 0.02x | (-55.8%/-90.0%) 0.62x | 50 | 2.7 |
SPY • Daily | 22% | (90.1%/1344.4%) 0.07x | (-15.9%/-56.7%) 0.28x | 49 | 2.3 |
TSLA • Daily | 30% | (2791.1%/24273.6%) 0.11x | (-42.7%/-75.0%) 0.57x | 42 | 4.8 |
WMT • Daily | 30% | (30.4%/10116.3%) 0.00x | (-67.6%/-50.6%) 1.34x | 39 | 1.8 |