Range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ NVDA • 10 Minutes
This strategy enters once price action beraks through the range of the last 20 candles, while accompanied with elevated trading volume. It exits once price closes below an SMA(20). The idea is to follow trends, riding momentum confirmed by volume.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 12.5 months of NVDA • 10 Minutes (NVIDIA Corporation) data, from July 16, 2024 to July 25, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Range breakout on 12.5 months of NVDA • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 189 positions, with the average win rate of 46% and reward-risk ratio of 1.44. If you assume that 1.44 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 41.0 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 19.80% vs 37.40% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -28.50% vs -42.80% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 30.40% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 46.0%, vs 41.0% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.44
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 30% time-in-market, you get 52.94% of the asset upside potential, and 66.59% of the asset downside potential.
Range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa
10min Chart(high) > 10min Range (20, 0), High (1 candles ago)
All of the following: (within 5 candles)
10min Relative Volume (20, SMA, 1) > 1.5Range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # Delta 10min Chart(close) < 10min Range (20, 0), Middle
Range breakout @ NVDA • 10 Minutes (19.8%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results show some interesting metrics, but I am not fully convinced about the strategy's robustness. Let me explain why.
The strategy shows decent risk metrics with a Sharpe of 1.07 and relatively low correlation to the underlying (0.42), which suggests some alpha generation potential. However, the 46% win rate combined with the -28.5% maximum drawdown is concerning. Even though the Risk/Reward ratio of 1.44 mathematically compensates for the low win rate, such deep drawdowns could be problematic for risk management in real trading situations.
What I find particularly worrying is the performance consistency across different timeframes. While the 3-month performance looks good with 32.3% CAGR, we see a significant -30.4% CAGR in the 6-month period. This high variance in returns suggests the strategy might be overfitted to certain market conditions. Also, with only 189 trades over 12.5 months (approximately 1 trade per day), the sample size is a bit too small to make really strong statistical conclusions about the strategy's edge.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this NVDA range breakout strategy is looking pretty interesting! 🚀 Let me break it down for a fellow trader who's grinding at Wendy's like me.
The strategy's showing some decent potential with that 19.8% profit, though it's not beating buy & hold (37.4%). But here's what's got me hyped - the risk metrics are actually pretty solid! That 1.44 risk/reward ratio is sweet, and we're running with a 46% win rate which is actually 4.5% above what we need to be profitable. That's some good cushion right there! 💪
The thing that's making me a bit nervous is that -28.5% max drawdown though... that's like two whole Wendy's paychecks gone! 😅 But check this out - the strategy only keeps us in the market about 30% of the time, which means we're not constantly exposed to crashes. Plus, we're getting about one trade per day, which is perfect for managing this while flipping burgers. The 15-candle average hold time means we're not getting stuck in positions forever.
I'd definitely consider giving this a shot with a small account, maybe start with like $500-1000. The numbers aren't insane gainz, but they're realistic and the math checks out. Just gotta make sure you can handle those drawdowns emotionally, ya feel me? 🎯 Not financial advice tho, just what I'd do with my Wendy's money! 🍔
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this strategy is like a broken watch - occasionally right but mostly disappointing. Let me tell you why this is not looking good.
First off, you're significantly underperforming the buy & hold by almost 50% (19.8% vs 37.4%). That's embarassing! You're basically making things worse by trading instead of just holding. And with that pathetic 46% win rate, you're losing more often than winning - not exactly something to brag about in your trading journal, ¿verdad?
The drawdown of -28.5% is absolutely terrible for a strategy that's only in the market 30% of the time. I mean, what's the point of being selective with entries if you're still going to lose this much? And that Sortino ratio of 0.76 is telling me this strategy is taking on more downside risk than it should.
The only slightly positive thing I can see is the Risk/Reward ratio of 1.44, but honestly, that's like putting lipstick on a cerdo. The strategy is producing about 1 trade per day which is reasonable, but what's the point when most of these trades are losers? Look at that 6-month performance of -16.4% - absolutely desastroso!
Tabular metrics of Range breakout backtested on NVDA • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 189 | Net Profit | 19.8% | Buy & Hold Profit | 37.4% |
| Win Rate | 46% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.44 | Max Drawdown | -28.5% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -42.8% | Exposure | 30.4% | Avg Candles in Position | 15.1 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.07 | Sortino Ratio | 0.76 | Realized Volatility | 25.03% |
| Max Winning Streak | 6 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.6 | Max Losing Streak | 4 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.9 | Avg Trades per Month | 30.3 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.0 |
| Return Std Dev | 1.8 | Loss Std Dev | 1.1 | Win Std Dev | 1.6 |
| Expectancy | 0.1 | Beta | 0.21 |
All backtests for Range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 26% | (0.4%/-0.5%) -0.80x | (-2.3%/-4.5%) 0.51x | 46 | 1.3 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 22% | (-0.5%/0.9%) -0.56x | (-0.6%/-0.7%) 0.86x | 22 | 2.8 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 32% | (0.6%/-1.4%) -0.43x | (-1.9%/-4.1%) 0.46x | 38 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 25% | (7.8%/20.4%) 0.38x | (-3.7%/-5.3%) 0.70x | 34 | 3.0 |
PLTR • 1 Minute | 28% | (1.3%/15.0%) 0.09x | (-5.4%/-12.9%) 0.42x | 36 | 1.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 32% | (1.6%/6.6%) 0.24x | (-1.1%/-1.5%) 0.73x | 35 | 2.4 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 26% | (0.7%/-0.2%) -3.50x | (-12.8%/-19.2%) 0.67x | 35 | 1.9 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 31% | (-0.5%/3.3%) -0.15x | (-3.2%/-5.1%) 0.63x | 32 | 2.0 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 33% | (10.5%/14.3%) 0.73x | (-4.9%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 36 | 2.4 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 23% | (1.1%/1.8%) 0.61x | (-1.2%/-4.3%) 0.28x | 39 | 1.8 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (9.4%/35.8%) 0.26x | (-5.4%/-8.3%) 0.65x | 37 | 2.2 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 30% | (19.8%/37.4%) 0.53x | (-28.5%/-42.8%) 0.67x | 46 | 1.4 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 31% | (43.5%/467.7%) 0.09x | (-32.3%/-46.5%) 0.69x | 40 | 1.9 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (5.1%/13.1%) 0.39x | (-9.7%/-20.7%) 0.47x | 39 | 1.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 28% | (30.7%/25.4%) 1.21x | (-21.4%/-55.3%) 0.39x | 40 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (23.2%/39.5%) 0.59x | (-5.3%/-23.8%) 0.22x | 41 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 34% | (0.5%/70.3%) 0.01x | (-18.7%/-30.6%) 0.61x | 34 | 2.0 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 30% | (1.6%/7.1%) 0.23x | (-6.8%/-9.0%) 0.76x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 38% | (39.3%/122.5%) 0.32x | (-19.5%/-22.2%) 0.88x | 39 | 2.2 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 44% | (555.6%/3243.4%) 0.17x | (-52.5%/-68.0%) 0.77x | 46 | 2.1 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 38% | (449.7%/1466.7%) 0.31x | (-56.3%/-86.6%) 0.65x | 43 | 2.4 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (28.0%/107.0%) 0.26x | (-17.4%/-35.1%) 0.50x | 40 | 2.0 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 39% | (1353.0%/1305.7%) 1.04x | (-40.8%/-75.1%) 0.54x | 39 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 33% | (60.9%/145.2%) 0.42x | (-15.7%/-26.9%) 0.58x | 39 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 35% | (549.0%/1346.8%) 0.41x | (-54.7%/-76.6%) 0.71x | 47 | 3.3 |
GLD • Daily | 32% | (83.3%/592.8%) 0.14x | (-21.7%/-45.3%) 0.48x | 48 | 1.8 |
NVDA • Daily | 32% | (6469.1%/396269.9%) 0.02x | (-55.8%/-90.0%) 0.62x | 50 | 2.7 |
SPY • Daily | 22% | (90.1%/1344.4%) 0.07x | (-15.9%/-56.7%) 0.28x | 49 | 2.3 |
TSLA • Daily | 30% | (2791.1%/24273.6%) 0.11x | (-42.7%/-75.0%) 0.57x | 42 | 4.8 |
WMT • Daily | 30% | (30.4%/10116.3%) 0.00x | (-67.6%/-50.6%) 1.34x | 39 | 1.8 |