Range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ PLTR • 1 Minute
This strategy enters once price action beraks through the range of the last 20 candles, while accompanied with elevated trading volume. It exits once price closes below an SMA(20). The idea is to follow trends, riding momentum confirmed by volume.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 38 days of PLTR • 1 Minute (Palantir Technologies Inc.) data, from June 17, 2025 to July 25, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Range breakout on 38 days of PLTR • 1 Minute candles. This backtest resulted in 181 positions, with the average win rate of 36% and reward-risk ratio of 1.85. If you assume that 1.85 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 35.1 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 1.30% vs 15.00% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -5.40% vs -12.90% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 27.70% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 36.0%, vs 35.1% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.85
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 28% time-in-market, you get 8.67% of the asset upside potential, and 41.86% of the asset downside potential.
Range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa
1min Chart(high) > 1min Range (20, 0), High (1 candles ago)
All of the following: (within 5 candles)
1min Relative Volume (20, SMA, 1) > 1.5Range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # Delta 1min Chart(close) < 1min Range (20, 0), Middle
Range breakout @ PLTR • 1 Minute (1.3%) backtest results explained by Alex C
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results show some interesting patterns, but I am not completely convinced about this strategy. Even though the Win Rate Leeway looks good at first glance, there are some critical issues I see here.
First thing that catches my attention is the big gap between strategy profit (1.3%) and buy & hold (15%). This is not good at all, especially considering the relatively high market exposure of 27.7%. Also the win rate of 36% is quite problematic, even though it is above the minimal sufficient rate. What worries me most is the combination of high trade frequency (9.5 trades per day) and the long losing streaks of up to 9 trades. This could be very challenging psychologically, even if you trade with perfect discipline.
The risk metrics are showing some NaN values which makes proper risk assessment difficult - this is a red flag for me as a quantitative analyst. The max drawdown of -5.4% is actually not too bad compared to the asset drawdown of -12.9%, but with such low overall returns, the risk-adjusted performance is questionable. I would suggest to either modify the entry conditions to be more selective, or maybe try this on a different timeframe where the signal-to-noise ratio could be better.
Tabular metrics of Range breakout backtested on PLTR • 1 Minute
| Total Trades | 181 | Net Profit | 1.3% | Buy & Hold Profit | 15.0% |
| Win Rate | 36% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.85 | Max Drawdown | -5.4% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -12.9% | Exposure | 27.7% | Avg Candles in Position | 14.3 |
| Sharpe Ratio | Sortino Ratio | Realized Volatility | — | ||
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.5 | Max Losing Streak | 9 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.5 | Avg Trades per Month | 285.8 | Avg Trades per Day | 9.5 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.4 | Loss Std Dev | 0.2 | Win Std Dev | 0.4 |
| Expectancy | 0.0 | Beta | 0.23 |
All backtests for Range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 26% | (0.4%/-0.5%) -0.80x | (-2.3%/-4.5%) 0.51x | 46 | 1.3 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 22% | (-0.5%/0.9%) -0.56x | (-0.6%/-0.7%) 0.86x | 22 | 2.8 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 32% | (0.6%/-1.4%) -0.43x | (-1.9%/-4.1%) 0.46x | 38 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 25% | (7.8%/20.4%) 0.38x | (-3.7%/-5.3%) 0.70x | 34 | 3.0 |
PLTR • 1 Minute | 28% | (1.3%/15.0%) 0.09x | (-5.4%/-12.9%) 0.42x | 36 | 1.9 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 32% | (1.6%/6.6%) 0.24x | (-1.1%/-1.5%) 0.73x | 35 | 2.4 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 26% | (0.7%/-0.2%) -3.50x | (-12.8%/-19.2%) 0.67x | 35 | 1.9 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 31% | (-0.5%/3.3%) -0.15x | (-3.2%/-5.1%) 0.63x | 32 | 2.0 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 33% | (10.5%/14.3%) 0.73x | (-4.9%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 36 | 2.4 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 23% | (1.1%/1.8%) 0.61x | (-1.2%/-4.3%) 0.28x | 39 | 1.8 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (9.4%/35.8%) 0.26x | (-5.4%/-8.3%) 0.65x | 37 | 2.2 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 30% | (19.8%/37.4%) 0.53x | (-28.5%/-42.8%) 0.67x | 46 | 1.4 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 31% | (43.5%/467.7%) 0.09x | (-32.3%/-46.5%) 0.69x | 40 | 1.9 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (5.1%/13.1%) 0.39x | (-9.7%/-20.7%) 0.47x | 39 | 1.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 28% | (30.7%/25.4%) 1.21x | (-21.4%/-55.3%) 0.39x | 40 | 1.9 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (23.2%/39.5%) 0.59x | (-5.3%/-23.8%) 0.22x | 41 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 34% | (0.5%/70.3%) 0.01x | (-18.7%/-30.6%) 0.61x | 34 | 2.0 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 30% | (1.6%/7.1%) 0.23x | (-6.8%/-9.0%) 0.76x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 38% | (39.3%/122.5%) 0.32x | (-19.5%/-22.2%) 0.88x | 39 | 2.2 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 44% | (555.6%/3243.4%) 0.17x | (-52.5%/-68.0%) 0.77x | 46 | 2.1 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 38% | (449.7%/1466.7%) 0.31x | (-56.3%/-86.6%) 0.65x | 43 | 2.4 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (28.0%/107.0%) 0.26x | (-17.4%/-35.1%) 0.50x | 40 | 2.0 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 39% | (1353.0%/1305.7%) 1.04x | (-40.8%/-75.1%) 0.54x | 39 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 33% | (60.9%/145.2%) 0.42x | (-15.7%/-26.9%) 0.58x | 39 | 2.4 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 35% | (549.0%/1346.8%) 0.41x | (-54.7%/-76.6%) 0.71x | 47 | 3.3 |
GLD • Daily | 32% | (83.3%/592.8%) 0.14x | (-21.7%/-45.3%) 0.48x | 48 | 1.8 |
NVDA • Daily | 32% | (6469.1%/396269.9%) 0.02x | (-55.8%/-90.0%) 0.62x | 50 | 2.7 |
SPY • Daily | 22% | (90.1%/1344.4%) 0.07x | (-15.9%/-56.7%) 0.28x | 49 | 2.3 |
TSLA • Daily | 30% | (2791.1%/24273.6%) 0.11x | (-42.7%/-75.0%) 0.57x | 42 | 4.8 |
WMT • Daily | 30% | (30.4%/10116.3%) 0.00x | (-67.6%/-50.6%) 1.34x | 39 | 1.8 |