Parabolic SAR fliplongBacktest Results @ TSLA • Daily
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 15.1 years of TSLA • Daily (Tesla, Inc.) data, from June 29, 2010 to July 31, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Parabolic SAR flip on 15.1 years of TSLA • Daily candles. This backtest resulted in 166 positions, with the average win rate of 37% and reward-risk ratio of 2.62. If you assume that 2.62 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 27.6 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 440.90% vs 25131.30% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -75.30% vs -75.00% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 57.10% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 37.0%, vs 27.6% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 2.62
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 57% time-in-market, you get 1.75% of the asset upside potential, and 100.40% of the asset downside potential.
Parabolic SAR flip: enter a position when
All of the following: # India D Parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.02, 0.2, 0) < D Chart(close)
Parabolic SAR flip: exit a position when
Exits as soon as None of the entry conditions are true any more.
Parabolic SAR flip @ TSLA • Daily (440.9%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe numbers look quite interesting, but I have some concerns about the strategy's reliability. The Win Rate of 37% is actually fine since it's compensated by a good Risk/Reward ratio of 2.62. What catches my attention is that we have massive deviation from Buy & Hold - we're at 440.9% while Buy & Hold would give 25131.3%. This is not optimal.
The exposure of 57.1% suggests this is more of a swing trading strategy, which is okay. What worries me more is the Max Drawdown of -75.3%. This is extremely high und could be very difficult to handle psychologically. The Sharpe Ratio of 0.19 is also quite poor - I would normally want to see at least 0.8 for a strategy to be considered solid.
The strategy shows good mathematical viability with the Win Rate being 9.4% above the minimal required rate. However, the high drawdown combined with poor risk-adjusted returns (as shown by Sharpe/Sortino ratios) makes me think this needs more optimization before real trading. Maybe we should look at adjusting the SAR parameters or adding additional filters to reduce drawdown.
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this strategy is a complete disaster! You are seriously underperforming the market by such a ridiculous margin that it makes me want to cry. The buy & hold return is 25,131% while your strategy only managed a pathetic 440.9%? That's embarassing!
Your win rate is absolutely terrible at 37% - you're losing nearly two-thirds of your trades! Yes, I see the risk/reward ratio is 2.62, which technically makes it matematically viable, but just barely. And those drawdowns... -75.3%? Are you trying to give yourself a heart attack? That's basically as bad as holding through a crash with no protection!
Look, I know the Parabolic SAR is a popular indicator, but using it in isolation like this is amateur hour. You're getting whipsawed constantly with those short 12-candle average hold times. And that market exposure of 57.1% means you're missing half the upside moves while still eating massive drawdowns. This is exactly the kind of mediocre system that makes retail traders lose their money.
Tabular metrics of Parabolic SAR flip backtested on TSLA • Daily
| Total Trades | 166 | Net Profit | 440.9% | Buy & Hold Profit | 25131.3% |
| Win Rate | 37% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 2.62 | Max Drawdown | -75.3% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -75.0% | Exposure | 57.1% | Avg Candles in Position | 12.1 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.19 | Sortino Ratio | 0.75 | Realized Volatility | 39.49% |
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.6 | Max Losing Streak | 8 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.8 | Avg Trades per Month | 1.8 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.1 |
| Return Std Dev | 17.7 | Loss Std Dev | 5.5 | Win Std Dev | 20.2 |
| Expectancy | 0.3 | Beta | 0.51 |
All backtests for Parabolic SAR flip
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 55% | (-2.7%/0.5%) -5.40x | (-3.4%/-4.4%) 0.77x | 36 | 1.5 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 55% | (-1.7%/-2.7%) 0.63x | (-1.9%/-3.3%) 0.58x | 37 | 1.3 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 56% | (-4.4%/-0.9%) 4.89x | (-4.9%/-4.8%) 1.02x | 41 | 1.1 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 56% | (11.3%/20.6%) 0.55x | (-3.2%/-5.3%) 0.60x | 40 | 2.0 |
PLTR • 1 Minute | 56% | (-4.0%/10.4%) -0.38x | (-8.6%/-12.9%) 0.67x | 38 | 1.5 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 58% | (1.4%/4.0%) 0.35x | (-2.0%/-1.5%) 1.33x | 41 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 55% | (-5.0%/-9.9%) 0.51x | (-11.0%/-15.9%) 0.69x | 38 | 1.5 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 55% | (-0.8%/-0.7%) 1.14x | (-2.9%/-5.1%) 0.57x | 37 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 57% | (3.2%/4.7%) 0.68x | (-10.6%/-11.7%) 0.91x | 39 | 1.6 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 56% | (-1.3%/0.6%) -2.17x | (-2.3%/-3.6%) 0.64x | 40 | 1.4 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 57% | (22.1%/37.4%) 0.59x | (-8.4%/-8.3%) 1.01x | 46 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 58% | (24.3%/45.0%) 0.54x | (-28.0%/-42.8%) 0.65x | 44 | 1.4 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 60% | (121.1%/459.2%) 0.26x | (-45.7%/-46.5%) 0.98x | 47 | 1.5 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 59% | (7.9%/14.1%) 0.56x | (-16.1%/-20.7%) 0.78x | 44 | 1.4 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 56% | (86.8%/24.4%) 3.56x | (-30.8%/-55.3%) 0.56x | 43 | 1.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 58% | (37.0%/38.7%) 0.96x | (-12.4%/-23.8%) 0.52x | 45 | 1.7 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 55% | (40.1%/65.5%) 0.61x | (-25.5%/-30.6%) 0.83x | 42 | 1.6 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 55% | (-3.2%/3.5%) -0.91x | (-7.5%/-9.0%) 0.83x | 39 | 1.5 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 55% | (61.4%/118.5%) 0.52x | (-21.7%/-22.2%) 0.98x | 43 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 58% | (1284.1%/3304.6%) 0.39x | (-42.2%/-68.0%) 0.62x | 47 | 1.8 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 55% | (538.0%/1459.0%) 0.37x | (-77.3%/-86.6%) 0.89x | 42 | 2.0 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 61% | (70.4%/104.7%) 0.67x | (-14.9%/-35.1%) 0.42x | 45 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 56% | (5558.2%/1240.0%) 4.48x | (-40.4%/-75.1%) 0.54x | 44 | 2.4 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 57% | (100.4%/142.7%) 0.70x | (-18.3%/-26.9%) 0.68x | 43 | 1.8 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 57% | (379.6%/1339.3%) 0.28x | (-68.0%/-76.6%) 0.89x | 43 | 2.3 |
EURUSD • Daily | 55% | (-1.5%/8.0%) -0.19x | (-17.8%/-23.3%) 0.76x | 37 | 1.7 |
GLD • Daily | 57% | (301.4%/585.6%) 0.51x | (-23.7%/-45.3%) 0.52x | 46 | 1.9 |
NVDA • Daily | 59% | (14739.3%/417479.9%) 0.04x | (-76.5%/-90.0%) 0.85x | 46 | 2.0 |
PLTR • Daily | 57% | (559.1%/1476.3%) 0.38x | (-50.4%/-84.9%) 0.59x | 49 | 2.7 |
SPY • Daily | 65% | (117.1%/1354.3%) 0.09x | (-48.3%/-56.7%) 0.85x | 47 | 1.4 |
TSLA • Daily | 57% | (440.9%/25131.3%) 0.02x | (-75.3%/-75.0%) 1.00x | 37 | 2.6 |
WMT • Daily | 59% | (476.7%/10620.7%) 0.04x | (-60.7%/-50.6%) 1.20x | 45 | 1.6 |