Parabolic SAR fliplongBacktest Results @ EURUSD • 1 Hour
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 19.5 months of EURUSD • 1 Hour (Euro vs USD spot (Interactive Brokers)) data, from December 25, 2023 to July 31, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Parabolic SAR flip on 19.5 months of EURUSD • 1 Hour candles. This backtest resulted in 417 positions, with the average win rate of 39% and reward-risk ratio of 1.49. If you assume that 1.49 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 40.2 to be profitable. So you're screwed! The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: -3.20% vs 3.50% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -7.50% vs -9.00% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 55.00% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 39.0%, vs 40.2% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.49
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 55% time-in-market, you get -91.43% of the asset upside potential, and 83.33% of the asset downside potential.
Parabolic SAR flip: enter a position when
All of the following: # India 60min Parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.02, 0.2, 0) < 60min Chart(close)
Parabolic SAR flip: exit a position when
Exits as soon as None of the entry conditions are true any more.
Parabolic SAR flip @ EURUSD • 1 Hour (-3.2%) backtest results explained by Sarah
Sarah
AuthorDios mío, this strategy is absolute garbage! Let me tell you why you should throw this piece of junk directly to trash where it belongs.
First of all, you are losing money (-3.2% net profit) while the market is actually going up (+3.5%). This is embarassing! You would do better by simply buying and holding, or better yet, keeping your money under your mattress. The win rate of 39% is pathetic - you are literally losing more than 6 out of 10 trades! And with such mediocre average wins (0.29%) compared to losses (-0.19%), this is recipe for disaster.
The risk metrics are even more terrible if that's possible. A negative Sharpe ratio of -0.99 means you are taking on risk for negative returns - this is what we call "being stupid with extra steps". The maximum drawdown of -7.5% shows how much pain you would have to endure for absolutely no reward.
Look, I don't mean to be rude (well, actually I do), but whoever designed this strategy should probably find another hobby. Maybe collecting stamps? At least then they wouldn't be losing money. The only positive thing I can say is that you have good win rate leeway - but that's like complementing the color of lifeboats on the Titanic.
Tabular metrics of Parabolic SAR flip backtested on EURUSD • 1 Hour
| Total Trades | 417 | Net Profit | -3.2% | Buy & Hold Profit | 3.5% |
| Win Rate | 39% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.49 | Max Drawdown | -7.5% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -9.0% | Exposure | 55.0% | Avg Candles in Position | 11.7 |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.99 | Sortino Ratio | -1.57 | Realized Volatility | 4.75% |
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.5 | Max Losing Streak | 10 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.4 | Avg Trades per Month | 42.8 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.4 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.3 | Loss Std Dev | 0.1 | Win Std Dev | 0.3 |
| Expectancy | -0.0 | Beta | 0.51 |
All backtests for Parabolic SAR flip
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 55% | (-2.7%/0.5%) -5.40x | (-3.4%/-4.4%) 0.77x | 36 | 1.5 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 55% | (-1.7%/-2.7%) 0.63x | (-1.9%/-3.3%) 0.58x | 37 | 1.3 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 56% | (-4.4%/-0.9%) 4.89x | (-4.9%/-4.8%) 1.02x | 41 | 1.1 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 56% | (11.3%/20.6%) 0.55x | (-3.2%/-5.3%) 0.60x | 40 | 2.0 |
PLTR • 1 Minute | 56% | (-4.0%/10.4%) -0.38x | (-8.6%/-12.9%) 0.67x | 38 | 1.5 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 58% | (1.4%/4.0%) 0.35x | (-2.0%/-1.5%) 1.33x | 41 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 55% | (-5.0%/-9.9%) 0.51x | (-11.0%/-15.9%) 0.69x | 38 | 1.5 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 55% | (-0.8%/-0.7%) 1.14x | (-2.9%/-5.1%) 0.57x | 37 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 57% | (3.2%/4.7%) 0.68x | (-10.6%/-11.7%) 0.91x | 39 | 1.6 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 56% | (-1.3%/0.6%) -2.17x | (-2.3%/-3.6%) 0.64x | 40 | 1.4 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 57% | (22.1%/37.4%) 0.59x | (-8.4%/-8.3%) 1.01x | 46 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 58% | (24.3%/45.0%) 0.54x | (-28.0%/-42.8%) 0.65x | 44 | 1.4 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 60% | (121.1%/459.2%) 0.26x | (-45.7%/-46.5%) 0.98x | 47 | 1.5 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 59% | (7.9%/14.1%) 0.56x | (-16.1%/-20.7%) 0.78x | 44 | 1.4 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 56% | (86.8%/24.4%) 3.56x | (-30.8%/-55.3%) 0.56x | 43 | 1.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 58% | (37.0%/38.7%) 0.96x | (-12.4%/-23.8%) 0.52x | 45 | 1.7 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 55% | (40.1%/65.5%) 0.61x | (-25.5%/-30.6%) 0.83x | 42 | 1.6 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 55% | (-3.2%/3.5%) -0.91x | (-7.5%/-9.0%) 0.83x | 39 | 1.5 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 55% | (61.4%/118.5%) 0.52x | (-21.7%/-22.2%) 0.98x | 43 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 58% | (1284.1%/3304.6%) 0.39x | (-42.2%/-68.0%) 0.62x | 47 | 1.8 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 55% | (538.0%/1459.0%) 0.37x | (-77.3%/-86.6%) 0.89x | 42 | 2.0 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 61% | (70.4%/104.7%) 0.67x | (-14.9%/-35.1%) 0.42x | 45 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 56% | (5558.2%/1240.0%) 4.48x | (-40.4%/-75.1%) 0.54x | 44 | 2.4 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 57% | (100.4%/142.7%) 0.70x | (-18.3%/-26.9%) 0.68x | 43 | 1.8 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 57% | (379.6%/1339.3%) 0.28x | (-68.0%/-76.6%) 0.89x | 43 | 2.3 |
EURUSD • Daily | 55% | (-1.5%/8.0%) -0.19x | (-17.8%/-23.3%) 0.76x | 37 | 1.7 |
GLD • Daily | 57% | (301.4%/585.6%) 0.51x | (-23.7%/-45.3%) 0.52x | 46 | 1.9 |
NVDA • Daily | 59% | (14739.3%/417479.9%) 0.04x | (-76.5%/-90.0%) 0.85x | 46 | 2.0 |
PLTR • Daily | 57% | (559.1%/1476.3%) 0.38x | (-50.4%/-84.9%) 0.59x | 49 | 2.7 |
SPY • Daily | 65% | (117.1%/1354.3%) 0.09x | (-48.3%/-56.7%) 0.85x | 47 | 1.4 |
TSLA • Daily | 57% | (440.9%/25131.3%) 0.02x | (-75.3%/-75.0%) 1.00x | 37 | 2.6 |
WMT • Daily | 59% | (476.7%/10620.7%) 0.04x | (-60.7%/-50.6%) 1.20x | 45 | 1.6 |