Parabolic SAR fliplongBacktest Results @ EURUSD • 10 Minutes
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 97 days of EURUSD • 10 Minutes (Euro vs USD spot (Interactive Brokers)) data, from April 25, 2025 to July 31, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Parabolic SAR flip on 97 days of EURUSD • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 460 positions, with the average win rate of 40% and reward-risk ratio of 1.41. If you assume that 1.41 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 41.5 to be profitable. So you're screwed! The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: -1.30% vs 0.60% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -2.30% vs -3.60% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 56.10% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 40.0%, vs 41.5% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.41
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 56% time-in-market, you get -216.67% of the asset upside potential, and 63.89% of the asset downside potential.
Parabolic SAR flip: enter a position when
All of the following: # India 10min Parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.02, 0.2, 0) < 10min Chart(close)
Parabolic SAR flip: exit a position when
Exits as soon as None of the entry conditions are true any more.
Parabolic SAR flip @ EURUSD • 10 Minutes (-1.3%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results show some concerning patterns. The negative net profit of -1.3% against a positive buy & hold of 0.6% is already a red flag. Even though the Risk/Reward ratio of 1.41 looks decent on paper, the win rate of 40% is too low to make this profitable - and that shows in the results.
What really catches my attention is the high trading frequency - 9.5 trades per day is quite aggressive for a forex strategy. With such high frequency, transaction costs could eat significantly into any potential profits, although they are not factored in these results. The market exposure of 56.1% suggests the strategy is doing a decent job of staying out during uncertain periods, but the average trade duration of 11.1 candles seems too short for meaningful price movements to develop.
The risk metrics are actually not terrible - Sharpe ratio of 0.46 and Sortino of 1.00 suggest moderate risk-adjusted returns, and the max drawdown of -2.3% is quite contained. However, I would not recommend trading this strategy live without significant modifications. The negative expectancy and below-required win rate are mathematical proof that this will lose money over time. My suggestion would be to add additional filters to improve entry precision and reduce the number of trades significantly.
Sarah
AuthorMadre de Dios, this strategy is complete garbage! I can't believe someone actually spent time developing this piece of mierda.
Look at these pathetic numbers - negative 1.3% net profit while the market actually went up 0.6%? You're literally burning money faster than throwing it in a fire! The win rate is embarrasingly low at 40%, which means you're losing more often than a drunk gambler in Las Vegas. And with 460 trades in just 97 days, you're overtrading like crazy, amigo.
The most ridiculous part is you're getting these terrible results with massive market exposure of 56.1%. You're basically living in the market half the time to lose money! The average trade duration of 11.1 candles shows you're not even giving your positions time to breathe - it's like trying to run before learning to walk.
The only slightly positive thing here is the win/loss ratio of 1.41, but what good is that when you're losing 60% of the time? It's like having a beautiful car with no engine. Do yourself a favor and delete this strategy before it ruins your account. And maybe consider a different hobby, like collecting stamps.
Tabular metrics of Parabolic SAR flip backtested on EURUSD • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 460 | Net Profit | -1.3% | Buy & Hold Profit | 0.6% |
| Win Rate | 40% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.41 | Max Drawdown | -2.3% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -3.6% | Exposure | 56.1% | Avg Candles in Position | 11.1 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.46 | Sortino Ratio | 1.00 | Realized Volatility | 4.76% |
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.7 | Max Losing Streak | 9 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.5 | Avg Trades per Month | 284.5 | Avg Trades per Day | 9.5 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.1 | Loss Std Dev | 0.1 | Win Std Dev | 0.1 |
| Expectancy | -0.0 | Beta | 0.49 |
All backtests for Parabolic SAR flip
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 55% | (-2.7%/0.5%) -5.40x | (-3.4%/-4.4%) 0.77x | 36 | 1.5 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 55% | (-1.7%/-2.7%) 0.63x | (-1.9%/-3.3%) 0.58x | 37 | 1.3 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 56% | (-4.4%/-0.9%) 4.89x | (-4.9%/-4.8%) 1.02x | 41 | 1.1 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 56% | (11.3%/20.6%) 0.55x | (-3.2%/-5.3%) 0.60x | 40 | 2.0 |
PLTR • 1 Minute | 56% | (-4.0%/10.4%) -0.38x | (-8.6%/-12.9%) 0.67x | 38 | 1.5 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 58% | (1.4%/4.0%) 0.35x | (-2.0%/-1.5%) 1.33x | 41 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 55% | (-5.0%/-9.9%) 0.51x | (-11.0%/-15.9%) 0.69x | 38 | 1.5 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 55% | (-0.8%/-0.7%) 1.14x | (-2.9%/-5.1%) 0.57x | 37 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 57% | (3.2%/4.7%) 0.68x | (-10.6%/-11.7%) 0.91x | 39 | 1.6 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 56% | (-1.3%/0.6%) -2.17x | (-2.3%/-3.6%) 0.64x | 40 | 1.4 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 57% | (22.1%/37.4%) 0.59x | (-8.4%/-8.3%) 1.01x | 46 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 58% | (24.3%/45.0%) 0.54x | (-28.0%/-42.8%) 0.65x | 44 | 1.4 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 60% | (121.1%/459.2%) 0.26x | (-45.7%/-46.5%) 0.98x | 47 | 1.5 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 59% | (7.9%/14.1%) 0.56x | (-16.1%/-20.7%) 0.78x | 44 | 1.4 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 56% | (86.8%/24.4%) 3.56x | (-30.8%/-55.3%) 0.56x | 43 | 1.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 58% | (37.0%/38.7%) 0.96x | (-12.4%/-23.8%) 0.52x | 45 | 1.7 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 55% | (40.1%/65.5%) 0.61x | (-25.5%/-30.6%) 0.83x | 42 | 1.6 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 55% | (-3.2%/3.5%) -0.91x | (-7.5%/-9.0%) 0.83x | 39 | 1.5 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 55% | (61.4%/118.5%) 0.52x | (-21.7%/-22.2%) 0.98x | 43 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 58% | (1284.1%/3304.6%) 0.39x | (-42.2%/-68.0%) 0.62x | 47 | 1.8 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 55% | (538.0%/1459.0%) 0.37x | (-77.3%/-86.6%) 0.89x | 42 | 2.0 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 61% | (70.4%/104.7%) 0.67x | (-14.9%/-35.1%) 0.42x | 45 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 56% | (5558.2%/1240.0%) 4.48x | (-40.4%/-75.1%) 0.54x | 44 | 2.4 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 57% | (100.4%/142.7%) 0.70x | (-18.3%/-26.9%) 0.68x | 43 | 1.8 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 57% | (379.6%/1339.3%) 0.28x | (-68.0%/-76.6%) 0.89x | 43 | 2.3 |
EURUSD • Daily | 55% | (-1.5%/8.0%) -0.19x | (-17.8%/-23.3%) 0.76x | 37 | 1.7 |
GLD • Daily | 57% | (301.4%/585.6%) 0.51x | (-23.7%/-45.3%) 0.52x | 46 | 1.9 |
NVDA • Daily | 59% | (14739.3%/417479.9%) 0.04x | (-76.5%/-90.0%) 0.85x | 46 | 2.0 |
PLTR • Daily | 57% | (559.1%/1476.3%) 0.38x | (-50.4%/-84.9%) 0.59x | 49 | 2.7 |
SPY • Daily | 65% | (117.1%/1354.3%) 0.09x | (-48.3%/-56.7%) 0.85x | 47 | 1.4 |
TSLA • Daily | 57% | (440.9%/25131.3%) 0.02x | (-75.3%/-75.0%) 1.00x | 37 | 2.6 |
WMT • Daily | 59% | (476.7%/10620.7%) 0.04x | (-60.7%/-50.6%) 1.20x | 45 | 1.6 |