Parabolic SAR fliplongBacktest Results @ EURUSD • 1 Minute
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 9 days of EURUSD • 1 Minute (Euro vs USD spot (Interactive Brokers)) data, from July 23, 2025 to July 31, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Parabolic SAR flip on 9 days of EURUSD • 1 Minute candles. This backtest resulted in 431 positions, with the average win rate of 37% and reward-risk ratio of 1.28. If you assume that 1.28 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 43.9 to be profitable. So you're screwed! The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: -1.70% vs -2.70% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -1.90% vs -3.30% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 54.50% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 37.0%, vs 43.9% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.28
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 55% time-in-market, you get 62.96% of the asset upside potential, and 57.58% of the asset downside potential.
Parabolic SAR flip: enter a position when
All of the following: # India 1min Parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.02, 0.2, 0) < 1min Chart(close)
Parabolic SAR flip: exit a position when
Exits as soon as None of the entry conditions are true any more.
Parabolic SAR flip @ EURUSD • 1 Minute (-1.7%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results for this Parabolic SAR strategy show some interesting patterns, but I have serious concerns about its viability.
First the positives: The strategy shows good activity with 431 trades over 9 days, which gives us statistical relevance. The market exposure of 54.5% is reasonable, and the strategy actually outperformed buy & hold by 1%. The win rate leeway being positive is also nice to see.
However, the fundamentals are problematic. A 37% win rate combined with nearly equal average win/loss sizes (both around 0.03%) creates negative expectancy of -0.1. This means the strategy loses money systematically. The high trading frequency (107.8 trades per day!) would also result in significant transaction costs in real trading which would make the -1.7% net loss even worse. The maximum drawdown of -1.9% relative to the small average trade size indicates poor risk management.
I would not recommend trading this strategy live. The mathematical foundation is not sound - you need either higher win rate or better reward/risk ratio to achieve positive expectancy. I would suggest optimizing the exit conditions to let winners run longer while cutting losses quicker. The entry signal might also need refinement since current win rate is too low for profitable trading.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this SAR flip strategy on EURUSD is pretty wild! 🎢 Running over 100 trades per day is some serious action, reminds me of my first week behind the Wendy's grill! 🍔
Looking at these numbers though, I'm getting some mixed vibes. The -1.7% net profit isn't exactly lambo territory 🚗, but check this out - it's actually beating buy & hold by a full percent! The max drawdown is only -1.9% which is super chill compared to some of the YOLO plays I've seen on the forums. Plus that 36.56% win rate leeway is actually kinda fire 🔥 - means the strategy has room to breathe even when the market gets choppy.
Here's what's got me thinking though - with a 37% win rate and basically equal average wins and losses (both around 0.03%), we might need to tweak this bad boy a bit. Maybe tighten up those exits or let the winners run longer? Still, the fact that it's staying competitive with the market while only being exposed 54.5% of the time is pretty based. Might be worth paper trading this for a bit before going in with real tendies. 💎🙌
Tabular metrics of Parabolic SAR flip backtested on EURUSD • 1 Minute
| Total Trades | 431 | Net Profit | -1.7% | Buy & Hold Profit | -2.7% |
| Win Rate | 37% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.28 | Max Drawdown | -1.9% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -3.3% | Exposure | 54.5% | Avg Candles in Position | 11.4 |
| Sharpe Ratio | Sortino Ratio | Realized Volatility | — | ||
| Max Winning Streak | 6 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.6 | Max Losing Streak | 11 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.5 | Avg Trades per Month | 3232.5 | Avg Trades per Day | 107.8 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.0 | Loss Std Dev | 0.0 | Win Std Dev | 0.0 |
| Expectancy | -0.1 | Beta | 0.46 |
All backtests for Parabolic SAR flip
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 55% | (-2.7%/0.5%) -5.40x | (-3.4%/-4.4%) 0.77x | 36 | 1.5 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 55% | (-1.7%/-2.7%) 0.63x | (-1.9%/-3.3%) 0.58x | 37 | 1.3 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 56% | (-4.4%/-0.9%) 4.89x | (-4.9%/-4.8%) 1.02x | 41 | 1.1 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 56% | (11.3%/20.6%) 0.55x | (-3.2%/-5.3%) 0.60x | 40 | 2.0 |
PLTR • 1 Minute | 56% | (-4.0%/10.4%) -0.38x | (-8.6%/-12.9%) 0.67x | 38 | 1.5 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 58% | (1.4%/4.0%) 0.35x | (-2.0%/-1.5%) 1.33x | 41 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 55% | (-5.0%/-9.9%) 0.51x | (-11.0%/-15.9%) 0.69x | 38 | 1.5 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 55% | (-0.8%/-0.7%) 1.14x | (-2.9%/-5.1%) 0.57x | 37 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 57% | (3.2%/4.7%) 0.68x | (-10.6%/-11.7%) 0.91x | 39 | 1.6 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 56% | (-1.3%/0.6%) -2.17x | (-2.3%/-3.6%) 0.64x | 40 | 1.4 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 57% | (22.1%/37.4%) 0.59x | (-8.4%/-8.3%) 1.01x | 46 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 58% | (24.3%/45.0%) 0.54x | (-28.0%/-42.8%) 0.65x | 44 | 1.4 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 60% | (121.1%/459.2%) 0.26x | (-45.7%/-46.5%) 0.98x | 47 | 1.5 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 59% | (7.9%/14.1%) 0.56x | (-16.1%/-20.7%) 0.78x | 44 | 1.4 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 56% | (86.8%/24.4%) 3.56x | (-30.8%/-55.3%) 0.56x | 43 | 1.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 58% | (37.0%/38.7%) 0.96x | (-12.4%/-23.8%) 0.52x | 45 | 1.7 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 55% | (40.1%/65.5%) 0.61x | (-25.5%/-30.6%) 0.83x | 42 | 1.6 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 55% | (-3.2%/3.5%) -0.91x | (-7.5%/-9.0%) 0.83x | 39 | 1.5 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 55% | (61.4%/118.5%) 0.52x | (-21.7%/-22.2%) 0.98x | 43 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 58% | (1284.1%/3304.6%) 0.39x | (-42.2%/-68.0%) 0.62x | 47 | 1.8 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 55% | (538.0%/1459.0%) 0.37x | (-77.3%/-86.6%) 0.89x | 42 | 2.0 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 61% | (70.4%/104.7%) 0.67x | (-14.9%/-35.1%) 0.42x | 45 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 56% | (5558.2%/1240.0%) 4.48x | (-40.4%/-75.1%) 0.54x | 44 | 2.4 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 57% | (100.4%/142.7%) 0.70x | (-18.3%/-26.9%) 0.68x | 43 | 1.8 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 57% | (379.6%/1339.3%) 0.28x | (-68.0%/-76.6%) 0.89x | 43 | 2.3 |
EURUSD • Daily | 55% | (-1.5%/8.0%) -0.19x | (-17.8%/-23.3%) 0.76x | 37 | 1.7 |
GLD • Daily | 57% | (301.4%/585.6%) 0.51x | (-23.7%/-45.3%) 0.52x | 46 | 1.9 |
NVDA • Daily | 59% | (14739.3%/417479.9%) 0.04x | (-76.5%/-90.0%) 0.85x | 46 | 2.0 |
PLTR • Daily | 57% | (559.1%/1476.3%) 0.38x | (-50.4%/-84.9%) 0.59x | 49 | 2.7 |
SPY • Daily | 65% | (117.1%/1354.3%) 0.09x | (-48.3%/-56.7%) 0.85x | 47 | 1.4 |
TSLA • Daily | 57% | (440.9%/25131.3%) 0.02x | (-75.3%/-75.0%) 1.00x | 37 | 2.6 |
WMT • Daily | 59% | (476.7%/10620.7%) 0.04x | (-60.7%/-50.6%) 1.20x | 45 | 1.6 |