Parabolic SAR fliplongBacktest Results @ BTCUSDT • 1 Minute
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 7 days of BTCUSDT • 1 Minute (Bitcoin vs Tether, Binance US) data, from July 25, 2025 to July 31, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Parabolic SAR flip on 7 days of BTCUSDT • 1 Minute candles. This backtest resulted in 284 positions, with the average win rate of 36% and reward-risk ratio of 1.47. If you assume that 1.47 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 40.5 to be profitable. So you're screwed! The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: -2.70% vs 0.50% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -3.40% vs -4.40% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 55.00% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 36.0%, vs 40.5% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.47
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 55% time-in-market, you get -540.00% of the asset upside potential, and 77.27% of the asset downside potential.
Parabolic SAR flip: enter a position when
All of the following: # India 1min Parabolic SAR (0.02, 0.02, 0.2, 0) < 1min Chart(close)
Parabolic SAR flip: exit a position when
Exits as soon as None of the entry conditions are true any more.
Parabolic SAR flip @ BTCUSDT • 1 Minute (-2.7%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results show some serious problems. First thing I notice is the high frequency - 94.7 trades per day is way too much. This causes high exposure to spreads and fees which will eat your profits in real trading.
The win rate of 36% combined with risk/reward of 1.47 is mathematically not viable. Even though the average win (0.14%) is larger than average loss (-0.09%), the low win rate makes it impossible to be profitable in the long run. The negative expectancy of -0.1 confirms this. You are basically losing money with statistical certainty.
The drawdown of -3.4% might look small, but considering this is only 7 days of data, it is quite significant. The strategy underperformed buy & hold by 3.2% which is not good. Also the market exposure of 55% suggests the strategy misses lot of moves, while still managing to lose money when it trades.
I would completely reject this strategy. The mathematical metrics show it has no edge. My suggestion would be to either increase the timeframe to reduce noise trading, or implement stronger filters for entry/exit conditions. But in current form, this strategy should not be traded with real money.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this SAR flip strategy on BTC is giving me some mixed feelings! 🤔 The volume is insane with almost 100 trades per day, which is exactly what I'm looking for as a scalper trying to make those quick gains! 🚀
But I gotta keep it real - that 36% win rate with a -2.7% net loss over just a week is kinda rough. Even though we're getting bigger wins than losses (0.14% vs -0.09%), we're just not winning often enough to make it work. The strategy's underperforming buy & hold too, which ain't great.
That said, I'm seeing some potential here! 💎 The risk/reward ratio is decent at 1.47, and we've got good win rate leeway according to the stats. Maybe with some tweaking on the entry/exit conditions and maybe adding some filters for choppy markets, this could be turned into something profitable. Might experiment with this during my Wendy's breaks! Let me know if anyone's got suggestions for improving it - we're all gonna make it! 🙌
Tabular metrics of Parabolic SAR flip backtested on BTCUSDT • 1 Minute
| Total Trades | 284 | Net Profit | -2.7% | Buy & Hold Profit | 0.5% |
| Win Rate | 36% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.47 | Max Drawdown | -3.4% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -4.4% | Exposure | 55.0% | Avg Candles in Position | 11.6 |
| Sharpe Ratio | Sortino Ratio | Realized Volatility | — | ||
| Max Winning Streak | 6 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.5 | Max Losing Streak | 10 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.7 | Avg Trades per Month | 2840.0 | Avg Trades per Day | 94.7 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.2 | Loss Std Dev | 0.1 | Win Std Dev | 0.1 |
| Expectancy | -0.1 | Beta | 0.47 |
All backtests for Parabolic SAR flip
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 55% | (-2.7%/0.5%) -5.40x | (-3.4%/-4.4%) 0.77x | 36 | 1.5 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 55% | (-1.7%/-2.7%) 0.63x | (-1.9%/-3.3%) 0.58x | 37 | 1.3 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 56% | (-4.4%/-0.9%) 4.89x | (-4.9%/-4.8%) 1.02x | 41 | 1.1 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 56% | (11.3%/20.6%) 0.55x | (-3.2%/-5.3%) 0.60x | 40 | 2.0 |
PLTR • 1 Minute | 56% | (-4.0%/10.4%) -0.38x | (-8.6%/-12.9%) 0.67x | 38 | 1.5 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 58% | (1.4%/4.0%) 0.35x | (-2.0%/-1.5%) 1.33x | 41 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 55% | (-5.0%/-9.9%) 0.51x | (-11.0%/-15.9%) 0.69x | 38 | 1.5 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 55% | (-0.8%/-0.7%) 1.14x | (-2.9%/-5.1%) 0.57x | 37 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 57% | (3.2%/4.7%) 0.68x | (-10.6%/-11.7%) 0.91x | 39 | 1.6 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 56% | (-1.3%/0.6%) -2.17x | (-2.3%/-3.6%) 0.64x | 40 | 1.4 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 57% | (22.1%/37.4%) 0.59x | (-8.4%/-8.3%) 1.01x | 46 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 58% | (24.3%/45.0%) 0.54x | (-28.0%/-42.8%) 0.65x | 44 | 1.4 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 60% | (121.1%/459.2%) 0.26x | (-45.7%/-46.5%) 0.98x | 47 | 1.5 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 59% | (7.9%/14.1%) 0.56x | (-16.1%/-20.7%) 0.78x | 44 | 1.4 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 56% | (86.8%/24.4%) 3.56x | (-30.8%/-55.3%) 0.56x | 43 | 1.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 58% | (37.0%/38.7%) 0.96x | (-12.4%/-23.8%) 0.52x | 45 | 1.7 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 55% | (40.1%/65.5%) 0.61x | (-25.5%/-30.6%) 0.83x | 42 | 1.6 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 55% | (-3.2%/3.5%) -0.91x | (-7.5%/-9.0%) 0.83x | 39 | 1.5 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 55% | (61.4%/118.5%) 0.52x | (-21.7%/-22.2%) 0.98x | 43 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 58% | (1284.1%/3304.6%) 0.39x | (-42.2%/-68.0%) 0.62x | 47 | 1.8 |
PLTR • 1 Hour | 55% | (538.0%/1459.0%) 0.37x | (-77.3%/-86.6%) 0.89x | 42 | 2.0 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 61% | (70.4%/104.7%) 0.67x | (-14.9%/-35.1%) 0.42x | 45 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 56% | (5558.2%/1240.0%) 4.48x | (-40.4%/-75.1%) 0.54x | 44 | 2.4 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 57% | (100.4%/142.7%) 0.70x | (-18.3%/-26.9%) 0.68x | 43 | 1.8 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 57% | (379.6%/1339.3%) 0.28x | (-68.0%/-76.6%) 0.89x | 43 | 2.3 |
EURUSD • Daily | 55% | (-1.5%/8.0%) -0.19x | (-17.8%/-23.3%) 0.76x | 37 | 1.7 |
GLD • Daily | 57% | (301.4%/585.6%) 0.51x | (-23.7%/-45.3%) 0.52x | 46 | 1.9 |
NVDA • Daily | 59% | (14739.3%/417479.9%) 0.04x | (-76.5%/-90.0%) 0.85x | 46 | 2.0 |
PLTR • Daily | 57% | (559.1%/1476.3%) 0.38x | (-50.4%/-84.9%) 0.59x | 49 | 2.7 |
SPY • Daily | 65% | (117.1%/1354.3%) 0.09x | (-48.3%/-56.7%) 0.85x | 47 | 1.4 |
TSLA • Daily | 57% | (440.9%/25131.3%) 0.02x | (-75.3%/-75.0%) 1.00x | 37 | 2.6 |
WMT • Daily | 59% | (476.7%/10620.7%) 0.04x | (-60.7%/-50.6%) 1.20x | 45 | 1.6 |