Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ WMT • 5 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 6.2 months of WMT • 5 Minutes (Walmart Inc.) data, from January 28, 2025 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 6.2 months of WMT • 5 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 91 positions, with the average win rate of 63% and reward-risk ratio of 0.86. If you assume that 0.86 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 53.8 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 91 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 12.50% vs 1.20% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -4.80% vs -23.80% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 26.50% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 63.0%, vs 53.8% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 0.86
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 27% time-in-market, you get 1041.67% of the asset upside potential, and 20.17% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 5min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 5min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ WMT • 5 Minutes (12.5%) backtest results explained by Mike
Mike
AuthorYo fam, these backtest results are looking pretty juicy! 🔥 Let me break it down for my fellow traders.
First off, we're crushing the buy & hold strategy with a 12.5% gain vs just 1.2% - that's like getting extra tendies with your 4 for 4! The win rate is sitting pretty at 63% which gives us a nice cushion above the minimum needed. That 6246% win rate leeway is straight-up bonkers and makes me feel super confident about this setup! 📈
What really gets me hyped is how we're managing risk - only 26.5% market exposure means we're not gambling our whole paycheck at once. The max drawdown of -4.8% is way better than the market's -23.8%, so we're not likely to blow up our accounts. And averaging one trade per day means we can still handle the Wendy's grill while watching our positions! 🍔
I'm thinking about YOLOing my next paycheck into this strategy ngl. The numbers are solid, risk management is on point, and those Sharpe/Sortino ratios looking clean. Just gotta make sure I don't paper hand during those 5-trade losing streaks! Diamond hands baby! 💎🙌
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on WMT • 5 Minutes
| Total Trades | 91 | Net Profit | 12.5% | Buy & Hold Profit | 1.2% |
| Win Rate | 63% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 0.86 | Max Drawdown | -4.8% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -23.8% | Exposure | 26.5% | Avg Candles in Position | 28.1 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.08 | Sortino Ratio | 1.89 | Realized Volatility | 13.23% |
| Max Winning Streak | 8 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.6 | Max Losing Streak | 5 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.6 | Avg Trades per Month | 29.5 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.0 |
| Return Std Dev | 1.0 | Loss Std Dev | 0.6 | Win Std Dev | 0.7 |
| Expectancy | 0.2 | Beta | 0.17 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |