Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ PLTR • 5 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 6.2 months of PLTR • 5 Minutes (Palantir Technologies Inc.) data, from January 28, 2025 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 6.2 months of PLTR • 5 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 80 positions, with the average win rate of 55% and reward-risk ratio of 1.07. If you assume that 1.07 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 48.3 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 80 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 18.30% vs 95.60% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -14.70% vs -46.60% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 26.00% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 55.0%, vs 48.3% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.07
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 26% time-in-market, you get 19.14% of the asset upside potential, and 31.55% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 5min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 5min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ PLTR • 5 Minutes (18.3%) backtest results explained by Alex C
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest shows some interessant metrics, but I'm not fully convinced about the strategy. Let me tell you why I think so.
The win rate of 55% combined with a risk/reward ratio of 1.07 is technically viable, since it's above the minimal sufficient win rate of 48.3%. However, the strategy significantly underperforms the buy & hold approach (18.3% vs 95.6%). This is a big red flag, especially considering we're talking about PLTR which is known for its volatility. The market exposure of 26% suggests the strategy misses lot of the upside moves.
What I find more concerning is the drawdown metrics. A -14.7% drawdown for a strategy that only makes 18.3% total return is not optimal - that's almost like losing all your gains in one bad period. The Sharpe ratio of 1.81 and Sortino of 2.65 are actually quite decent, but I suspect this comes from the low market exposure rather than good trade selection. The strategy produces about 1 trade per day which is reasonable for risk management, but maybe to conservative for such a volatile asset.
I would suggest to try optimizing the entry conditions to catch more of the upside moves. Maybe look at adjusting the opening range parameters or add additional confirmation signals. The mathematical framework is solid, but the implementation needs work to be competitive with simpler approaches.
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on PLTR • 5 Minutes
| Total Trades | 80 | Net Profit | 18.3% | Buy & Hold Profit | 95.6% |
| Win Rate | 55% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.07 | Max Drawdown | -14.7% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -46.6% | Exposure | 26.0% | Avg Candles in Position | 31.5 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.81 | Sortino Ratio | 2.65 | Realized Volatility | 29.21% |
| Max Winning Streak | 8 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.4 | Max Losing Streak | 5 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.0 | Avg Trades per Month | 25.9 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.9 |
| Return Std Dev | 2.4 | Loss Std Dev | 1.0 | Win Std Dev | 1.9 |
| Expectancy | 0.1 | Beta | 0.11 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |