Buy at opening candle range breakoutlong

Backtest Results @ NVDA • 5 Minutes

The backtest shows some interesting metrics, but I am not completely convinced. While the win rate of 61% looks good on first sight, the risk/reward ratio below 1 (0.89) is problematic. This means we lose more on losing trades than we win on winning trades - not optimal.

The strategy generates about 1 trade per day which is reasonable - not too frequent to get killed by fees but enough trades to be statistically relevant. The market exposure of 28.6% tells us we are not in the market too much, which can be good for risk management. However, the net profit of 14.6% compared to buy & hold of 42.5% shows we are significantly underperforming the market. This is especially concerning for a growth stock like NVIDIA.

The risk metrics are okay but not great - Sharpe ratio of 1.01 is barely acceptable, though the Sortino ratio of 1.59 is better. The max drawdown of 9.3% is manageable. What worries me most is that we need a 52.9% win rate to break even, and while we are above that, the margin is not as comfortable as I would like to see. I would want to see either a better risk/reward ratio or a higher win rate before considering this strategy viable.

Yo fam, this NVDA strategy is looking pretty interesting! 🚀 The win rate at 61% is actually fire, and with almost 90 trades in the backtest, that's enough data to take seriously.

The thing that catches my eye is that sweet 14.6% profit with only 28.6% market exposure - meaning we're not bagholding through all the scary dips! 💎🙌 Sure, buy & hold did better at 42.5%, but that's with way more risk exposure and those nasty -38.8% drawdowns. Our max drawdown was only -9.3%, which is way more manageable for us Wendy's warriors trying to preserve our hard-earned tendies.

Looking at the numbers deeper, that 0.89 risk/reward isn't perfect (we usually want >1), but the win rate makes up for it. Plus that 6047% win rate leeway is absolutely bonkers - means this strategy has room to breathe even if market conditions get a bit rough. I'd probably try this with a small position first, maybe even paper trade it for a month, but overall these metrics are giving me some serious FOMO vibes! 🔥 Not financial advice though, just a dude who likes analyzing backtests between making Baconators! 🍔

Madre mía, this strategy is pure mediocrity wrapped in a false sense of security! Let me tell you why this is basically throwing money away with extra steps.

First off, you're making 14.6% while the market gave you 42.5% on a silver platter? That's embarassing! You're basically paying to underperform. The market exposure of 28.6% shows you're missing most of the actual moves. And don't get me started on that pathetic 1 trade per day average - what are you doing, taking siestas between trades?

The risk metrics are a joke. A Sharpe ratio of 1.01? That's barely better than throwing darts blindfolded! The 9.3% drawdown might look "acceptable" until you realize you're getting this with only 28.6% market exposure - meaning your risk-adjusted returns are terrible, mi amigo.

Look, the only halfway decent thing here is the win rate at 61%, but even that's not impressive when your average win (0.99%) is smaller than your average loss (-1.12%). This means you're slowly bleeding money while thinking you're winning. Es un desastre! My advice? Either completely rebuild this strategy or stick to buying and holding - at least then you wouldn't be paying commissions to lose money more efficiently.