Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 35 days of BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes (Bitcoin vs Tether, Binance US) data, from June 28, 2025 to August 3, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 35 days of BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 28 positions, with the average win rate of 64% and reward-risk ratio of 0.98. If you assume that 0.98 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 50.5 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 28 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 2.20% vs 5.70% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -2.10% vs -8.90% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 17.90% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 64.0%, vs 50.5% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 0.98
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 18% time-in-market, you get 38.60% of the asset upside potential, and 23.60% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 5min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 5min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes (2.2%) backtest results explained by Sarah
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this strategy is like a timid teenager at their first dance party! Only 28 trades in 35 days? That's pathetically low for a 5-minute timeframe!
Look, the win rate of 64% looks decent at first glance, but with such microscopic average wins of 0.28% and losses of -0.29%, you're basically running a glorified coin flip operation. And you're underperforming the buy & hold by more than half! That's embarassing, mi amigo. The market gave you 5.7% on a silver platter, and you managed to scrape together only 2.2%?
The only somewhat decent thing here are your risk metrics - the Sharpe and Sortino ratios aren't terrible, and the max drawdown of -2.1% is manageable. But honestly, with such low market exposure (17.9%), you're basically sitting on your hands most of the time while the market is making moves without you. This is like going to a fiesta and spending most of time checking your phone in the corner!
Either make this strategy more aggressive with more trades and better profit targets, or save yourself the trouble and just buy and hold. This current version is mediocre at best, and life is too short for mediocre trading strategies!
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes
| Total Trades | 28 | Net Profit | 2.2% | Buy & Hold Profit | 5.7% |
| Win Rate | 64% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 0.98 | Max Drawdown | -2.1% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -8.9% | Exposure | 17.9% | Avg Candles in Position | 59.6 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.75 | Sortino Ratio | 5.38 | Realized Volatility | 8.16% |
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 3.0 | Max Losing Streak | 3 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.7 | Avg Trades per Month | 48.0 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.6 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.5 | Loss Std Dev | 0.2 | Win Std Dev | 0.5 |
| Expectancy | 0.3 | Beta | 0.13 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |