Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ TSLA • 30 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 3.1 years of TSLA • 30 Minutes (Tesla, Inc.) data, from July 5, 2022 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 3.1 years of TSLA • 30 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 321 positions, with the average win rate of 56% and reward-risk ratio of 1.02. If you assume that 1.02 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 49.5 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 62.00% vs 33.80% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -20.90% vs -67.10% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 29.30% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 56.0%, vs 49.5% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.02
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 29% time-in-market, you get 183.43% of the asset upside potential, and 31.15% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 30min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 30min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ TSLA • 30 Minutes (62.0%) backtest results explained by Mike, Sarah
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this TSLA opening range breakout strategy is looking pretty juicy! 🚀 The numbers are giving me some serious FOMO vibes, but let me break it down for real.
First off, that 62% net profit is beating the buy & hold by almost double (33.8%), which is straight fire! 🔥 The win rate at 56% with a decent R/R ratio of 1.02 means we're not just YOLOing here - there's actually some solid edge. Plus, that 5550% win rate leeway is absolutely bonkers, meaning this strategy has some serious breathing room.
What really gets me hyped is the exposure - only 29.3% market exposure means we're not bagholding through the rough times. The max drawdown of -20.9% is way better than TSLA's brutal -67.1% drawdown, so we're not getting totally rekt during downturns. That said, the Sharpe and Sortino ratios are a bit mid (0.69 and 0.53), but hey, we're trading TSLA - volatility comes with the territory! 💎🙌
Just keep in mind that past performance doesn't guarantee future tendies, but these metrics are looking pretty solid for a day trading strategy. Would I throw my whole Wendy's paycheck at it? Maybe not, but I'd definitely consider running this with proper position sizing! LFG! 🚀
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this strategy is like a mediocre student who barely passes - technically alive but nothing to write home about.
The win rate of 56% with a risk/reward of 1.02 is basically throwing darts blindfolded. You're winning slightly more than you're losing, but with such tight margins, one bad month could destroy your account. The fact that you need 49.5% win rate to break even and you're only achieving 56% gives you very little room for error. It's like walking on a tightrope without a safety net.
The exposure of 29.3% is actually not bad - at least you're not married to your positions like some idiots I've seen. But those 8.1 candles average hold time? Por favor! That's way too long for what appears to be a breakout strategy. You're letting your winners turn into losers.
The -20.9% drawdown is absolutely horrible for such limited exposure. If you're only in the market 29% of the time and still manage to lose 21% of your capital, something is seriously wrong with your risk management. The Sharpe ratio of 0.69 is pathetic - you'd be better off buying government bonds and going to sleep.
Fix your exits or find another strategy. This one is not going to make you rich, amigo.
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on TSLA • 30 Minutes
| Total Trades | 321 | Net Profit | 62.0% | Buy & Hold Profit | 33.8% |
| Win Rate | 56% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.02 | Max Drawdown | -20.9% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -67.1% | Exposure | 29.3% | Avg Candles in Position | 8.1 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.69 | Sortino Ratio | 0.53 | Realized Volatility | 20.70% |
| Max Winning Streak | 9 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.2 | Max Losing Streak | 5 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.8 | Avg Trades per Month | 17.2 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.6 |
| Return Std Dev | 2.2 | Loss Std Dev | 1.4 | Win Std Dev | 1.9 |
| Expectancy | 0.1 | Beta | 0.14 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |