Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ PLTR • 30 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 3.1 years of PLTR • 30 Minutes (Palantir Technologies Inc.) data, from July 5, 2022 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 3.1 years of PLTR • 30 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 331 positions, with the average win rate of 54% and reward-risk ratio of 0.94. If you assume that 0.94 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 51.5 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 19.40% vs 1516.10% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -41.60% vs -48.40% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 29.90% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 54.0%, vs 51.5% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 0.94
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 30% time-in-market, you get 1.28% of the asset upside potential, and 85.95% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 30min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 30min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ PLTR • 30 Minutes (19.4%) backtest results explained by Mike
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this PLTR strategy is giving me some mixed vibes! 🤔 The win rate at 54% with that tight risk/reward isn't too shabby, and we're getting decent action with about 17 trades per month. That's enough to keep things spicy without overdoing it! 🌶️
The downside is we're only catching 19.4% profit over 3 years while PLTR itself went absolutely bonkers with that 1516% gain! 🚀 That's like watching your buddy YOLO into a 15-bagger while you're sitting there with chicken nugget money. But hey, the max drawdown is slightly better than the asset (-41.6% vs -48.4%), so there's that copium for ya! 💊
Looking at the shorter timeframes though, this thing's been picking up steam lately - that 21.5% gain in 6 months is pretty sweet. Plus that win rate leeway is thicc AF at 5348.5% above what we need! 💪 Maybe worth throwing some Wendy's paychecks at it, but definitely not betting the whole farm. Might be good for some side hustle gains while keeping risk in check! 🎯
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on PLTR • 30 Minutes
| Total Trades | 331 | Net Profit | 19.4% | Buy & Hold Profit | 1516.1% |
| Win Rate | 54% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 0.94 | Max Drawdown | -41.6% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -48.4% | Exposure | 29.9% | Avg Candles in Position | 8.0 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.48 | Sortino Ratio | 0.06 | Realized Volatility | 23.12% |
| Max Winning Streak | 11 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.2 | Max Losing Streak | 7 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.8 | Avg Trades per Month | 17.7 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.6 |
| Return Std Dev | 2.6 | Loss Std Dev | 2.4 | Win Std Dev | 1.7 |
| Expectancy | 0.1 | Beta | 0.13 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |