Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ NVDA • 30 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 3.1 years of NVDA • 30 Minutes (NVIDIA Corporation) data, from July 5, 2022 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 3.1 years of NVDA • 30 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 374 positions, with the average win rate of 54% and reward-risk ratio of 1.10. If you assume that 1.10 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 47.6 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 58.60% vs 1089.50% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -29.20% vs -42.90% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 33.70% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 54.0%, vs 47.6% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.10
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 34% time-in-market, you get 5.38% of the asset upside potential, and 68.07% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 30min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 30min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ NVDA • 30 Minutes (58.6%) backtest results explained by Alex C
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results show some concerning patterns. The strategy significantly underperforms buy-and-hold with only 58.6% profit versus 1089.5% for buy-and-hold over 3.1 years. This is quite problematic for a stock like NVDA which has been in strong uptrend.
The win rate of 54% with risk/reward of 1.10 is mathematically viable, since it needs only 47.6% to break even. However, the market exposure of 33.7% suggests the strategy misses lot of the upward moves. The average trade duration of 8 candles (4 hours) indicates this is very short-term strategy, which explains the high amount of trades - 374 total or 0.7 trades per day.
What worries me most is the degrading performance in recent periods. While 3-year CAGR is 14.4%, the 1-month performance is -28.6% CAGR. This suggests the strategy might be losing its edge or was possibly overfit to older data. The -29.2% maximum drawdown is also concerning relative to the total return. I would need to see more robust performance across different market conditions before considering this strategy viable.
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on NVDA • 30 Minutes
| Total Trades | 374 | Net Profit | 58.6% | Buy & Hold Profit | 1089.5% |
| Win Rate | 54% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.10 | Max Drawdown | -29.2% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -42.9% | Exposure | 33.7% | Avg Candles in Position | 8.0 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.57 | Sortino Ratio | 0.67 | Realized Volatility | 20.96% |
| Max Winning Streak | 7 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.0 | Max Losing Streak | 7 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.7 | Avg Trades per Month | 20.0 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.7 |
| Return Std Dev | 2.5 | Loss Std Dev | 2.1 | Win Std Dev | 2.2 |
| Expectancy | 0.1 | Beta | 0.22 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |