Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 6.9 months of BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes (Bitcoin vs Tether, Binance US) data, from January 6, 2025 to August 2, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 6.9 months of BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 155 positions, with the average win rate of 57% and reward-risk ratio of 0.73. If you assume that 0.73 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 57.8 to be profitable. So you're screwed! The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: -3.70% vs 14.30% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -20.80% vs -31.20% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 21.10% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 57.0%, vs 57.8% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 0.73
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 21% time-in-market, you get -25.87% of the asset upside potential, and 66.67% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 30min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 30min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes (-3.7%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results show some concerning patterns that make me skeptical about this strategy's viability. While the win rate of 57% looks decent at first glance, the negative expectancy is a red flag that cannot be ignored.
The strategy significantly underperforms buy & hold with -3.7% vs +14.3%, which is problematic considering we are in a bull market phase. The risk metrics are also not convincing - a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.10 indicates poor risk-adjusted returns. The max drawdown of 20.8% is quite high relative to the market exposure of only 21.1%, suggesting the strategy takes on disproportionate risk when it trades.
What I find particularly concerning is the risk/reward ratio of 0.73 - this means the average loss is larger than the average win (0.83% vs 0.61%). With such metrics, you would need a much higher win rate to be profitable in the long run. The high trading frequency of 1.5 trades per day would also result in significant transaction costs that would further eat into the already negative performance. I would definitely not recommend trading this strategy without significant modifications to improve the reward/risk characteristics.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, let me break down this backtest for you! 🚀
Looking at these numbers, I'm getting mixed vibes here. The strategy's hitting a decent 57% win rate, which isn't bad at all, but that -3.7% net profit over 6.9 months is kinda rough when BTC itself went up 14.3%. The good news is we're getting plenty of action with 1.5 trades per day - that's enough to keep things spicy! 📈
What's really catching my eye is that win rate leeway of 5642.2% - that's absolutely massive and tells me this strategy has room to breathe! But here's the thing fam - those risk/reward numbers need some work. With a 0.73 R/R ratio and average wins smaller than average losses (0.61% vs -0.83%), we're basically playing defense instead of offense. That -20.8% max drawdown would have my Wendy's paycheck crying fr fr 😭
Overall, I think this strategy has potential but needs some tweaking before I'd YOLO my tendies into it. Maybe tighten up those stops to improve the R/R ratio, or look for stronger signals to boost those win sizes. Diamond hands won't help if we're not catching the right moves! 💎🙌
Sarah
AuthorMadre de Dios, this strategy is complete garbage! Let me tear it apart for you, porque I can't even believe someone would consider trading this.
The strategy is losing money (-3.7%) while the market is up 14.3%! You're basically paying money to lose more money - congratulations on finding such an "amazing" way to destroy your capital. And with a Win Rate barely above 50%, it's like flipping a coin but paying fees for the privilege.
The Risk/Reward ratio of 0.73 is absolutely terrible - you're risking more than you're winning on average. Your average loss (-0.83%) is bigger than your average win (0.61%). This is like playing poker where you lose more money when you lose than you make when you win. ¡Qué desastre!
The -20.8% drawdown is just the cherry on top of this disaster cake. With such poor metrics and high drawdown, you might as well go to casino - at least they give you free drinks while you lose your money! And the negative Sharpe ratio (-0.10) just confirms what is obvious - this strategy is pure basura.
Mi consejo? Delete this strategy and start over. And next time, try to create something that actually makes money instead of losing it.
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes
| Total Trades | 155 | Net Profit | -3.7% | Buy & Hold Profit | 14.3% |
| Win Rate | 57% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 0.73 | Max Drawdown | -20.8% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -31.2% | Exposure | 21.1% | Avg Candles in Position | 12.6 |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.10 | Sortino Ratio | 0.50 | Realized Volatility | 17.59% |
| Max Winning Streak | 7 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.1 | Max Losing Streak | 4 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.6 | Avg Trades per Month | 44.7 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.5 |
| Return Std Dev | 1.2 | Loss Std Dev | 1.1 | Win Std Dev | 0.9 |
| Expectancy | -0.0 | Beta | 0.2 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |