Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ WMT • 15 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 18.7 months of WMT • 15 Minutes (Walmart Inc.) data, from January 17, 2024 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 18.7 months of WMT • 15 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 215 positions, with the average win rate of 64% and reward-risk ratio of 0.86. If you assume that 0.86 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 53.8 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 27.20% vs 83.00% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -4.90% vs -23.80% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 33.00% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 64.0%, vs 53.8% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 0.86
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 33% time-in-market, you get 32.77% of the asset upside potential, and 20.59% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 15min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 15min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ WMT • 15 Minutes (27.2%) backtest results explained by Mike
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this WMT strategy looking pretty decent! 🚀 Not gonna lie, the 27.2% net profit isn't matching buy & hold, but check out those risk metrics - they're looking clean AF!
The strategy's playing it smart with that 64% win rate and only a -4.9% max drawdown (compared to the stock's -23.8% drawdown - that's crazy protection right there!). I'm loving how it's only exposing us to the market 33% of the time, meaning we're not constantly at risk. Plus, that 0.8 trades per day is perfect for managing my Wendy's shifts lol. 📈
What really gets me hyped is that 6346% win rate leeway - that's some serious cushion room! The Sharpe ratio at 1.94 is straight fire too. Sure, we might not be hitting those YOLO gains that'd let me quit Wendy's tomorrow, but this looks like a solid strategy for building that account steadily without getting rekt. Might even be able to afford that used Lambo in a few years if these metrics hold up! 🔥💎🙌
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on WMT • 15 Minutes
| Total Trades | 215 | Net Profit | 27.2% | Buy & Hold Profit | 83.0% |
| Win Rate | 64% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 0.86 | Max Drawdown | -4.9% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -23.8% | Exposure | 33.0% | Avg Candles in Position | 14.4 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.94 | Sortino Ratio | 0.99 | Realized Volatility | 8.44% |
| Max Winning Streak | 10 | Avg Winning Streak | 3.1 | Max Losing Streak | 4 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.8 | Avg Trades per Month | 23.0 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.8 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.8 | Loss Std Dev | 0.6 | Win Std Dev | 0.5 |
| Expectancy | 0.2 | Beta | 0.16 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |