Buy at opening candle range breakoutlong

Backtest Results @ SPY • 15 Minutes

The backtest shows some interesting characteristics, but I am not fully convinced about its robustness. The win rate of 62% looks good on paper, but when we look at the Risk/Reward ratio of 0.85, it tells us that winners are smaller than loosers. This is not optimal from mathematical perspective.

What catches my attention is the market exposure of only 23.9% while still achieving 13.3% net profit. This suggests the strategy is quite selective with its entries, which is generally positive. However, the performance significantly lacks behind buy & hold (31.8%). The average trade duration of 7.9 candles indicates these are rather short-term trades, which means transaction costs could become relevant - they should be factored in carefully.

The Sharpe ratio of 0.53 and especially the negative Sortino ratio of -0.24 are concerning to me. This suggests the strategy is not very efficient at managing downside risk. The maximum drawdown of -4.4% is actually quite good compared to the asset's -21.1%, but I would want to see how stable this metric remains when testing different time periods. The strategy seems to work best in 6-month timeframe with 31.4% CAGR, but shows much weaker performance in other periods - this inconsistency worries me from statistical viewpoint.

Yo fam, this opening range breakout strategy is looking pretty interesting! 🤔 The 62% win rate is actually fire, especially since we only need 54% to break even. That's some nice cushioning there! 💪

Not gonna lie though, the net profit of 13.3% vs buy & hold at 31.8% is a bit of a bummer. But check this out - we're only exposed to the market 24% of the time! That means way less stress and more time to flip those burgers at Wendy's lol. Plus, that max drawdown of only -4.4% compared to the market's -21.1% is actually huge for risk management. 📉

The strategy is giving us about one trade per day, which is perfect for managing positions while working the day job. And those ratios - 0.29% average wins vs -0.34% average losses - are pretty balanced. Not exactly YOLO gains, but hey, slow and steady might actually win this race! Looking at those 6-month returns of 14.5%, I'm starting to think this could be a decent side hustle to stack some tendies. 🚀 Just gotta stay disciplined and not get too greedy! 💎🙌

Madre mía, this strategy is like a tortoise trying to win Formula 1! The performance is pathetically mediocre, especially when you see it only made 13.3% while the market did 31.8%. What a joke!

Look, the win rate of 62% looks decent at first, but when you combine it with that miserable 0.85 risk/reward ratio, it's like throwing darts with your eyes closed! You're basically winning more often but losing more money when you're wrong. And that market exposure of just 23.9%? Are you trading or just taking expensive naps? The strategy is spending way too much time doing nothing!

The most ridiculous part is the Sharpe ratio of 0.53 and that negative Sortino of -0.24. This tells me the strategy is not just underperforming - it's doing it while taking stupid risks! And por favor, that correlation of 0.29 with the market shows it's not even good at following trends. It's like having a GPS that points you in random directions!

If this was my strategy, I would throw it in the basura and start over. The only positive thing I can say is that the drawdown is contained at -4.4%, but that's probably because you're barely in the market anyway!