Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ PLTR • 15 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 18.7 months of PLTR • 15 Minutes (Palantir Technologies Inc.) data, from January 17, 2024 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 18.7 months of PLTR • 15 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 204 positions, with the average win rate of 56% and reward-risk ratio of 1.39. If you assume that 1.39 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 41.8 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 124.30% vs 846.90% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -14.30% vs -46.50% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 33.00% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 56.0%, vs 41.8% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.39
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 33% time-in-market, you get 14.68% of the asset upside potential, and 30.75% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 15min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 15min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ PLTR • 15 Minutes (124.3%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest shows some promising characteristics, but I have concerns about the real-world applicability. Let me explain why.
The strategy shows good risk metrics with a Sharpe of 2.35 and relatively low correlation to the underlying asset (0.42). The win rate of 56% combined with a positive R/R ratio of 1.39 gives mathematical edge. What I particularly like is the win rate leeway - being 55.58% above the minimal required win rate suggests robustness. However, the market exposure of only 33% while the buy & hold return was 846.9% indicates we might be missing significant moves.
The concern I have is about the average holding time of 15.2 candles on 15-minute timeframe. This means average trade duration is less than 4 hours. With 0.7 trades per day, transaction costs and slippage could eat into the theoretical 124.3% profit significantly. Also the max drawdown of -14.3% seems a bit high for such short-term strategy. I would suggest to backtest this with realistic commission structure and maybe implement some additional filters to reduce the drawdown.
Sarah
AuthorMadre mia, this strategy is like a bicycle trying to chase a rocket ship! The Buy & Hold profit of 846.9% absolutely destroys your strategy's measly 124.3%. You're basically paying commisions to underperform dramatically.
Look, the win rate of 56% isn't terrible, and the Risk/Reward of 1.39 is acceptable. But why bother when simply holding the asset would have made you 7 times more money? The market exposure of 33% shows you're missing most of the major moves while trying to be clever with your entry/exit rules.
The only thing that looks decent here is the risk metrics - your max drawdown of -14.3% compared to asset's -46.5% shows good risk management. But honestly, who cares about managing risk when you're leaving so much money on the table? It's like wearing knee pads while missing the Olympic gold medal.
This estrategy needs a complete overhaul. Either find a way to increase your market exposure significantly, or admit that your opening range breakout approach is just not suited for this particular asset. PLTR clearly has strong directional moves that you're missing by being too cute with your trading rules.
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on PLTR • 15 Minutes
| Total Trades | 204 | Net Profit | 124.3% | Buy & Hold Profit | 846.9% |
| Win Rate | 56% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.39 | Max Drawdown | -14.3% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -46.5% | Exposure | 33.0% | Avg Candles in Position | 15.2 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.35 | Sortino Ratio | 2.14 | Realized Volatility | 22.52% |
| Max Winning Streak | 8 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.3 | Max Losing Streak | 6 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.7 | Avg Trades per Month | 21.8 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.7 |
| Return Std Dev | 2.8 | Loss Std Dev | 1.2 | Win Std Dev | 3.0 |
| Expectancy | 0.3 | Beta | 0.18 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |