Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ GLD • 15 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 18.7 months of GLD • 15 Minutes (SPDR Gold Trust) data, from January 17, 2024 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 18.7 months of GLD • 15 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 239 positions, with the average win rate of 59% and reward-risk ratio of 0.79. If you assume that 0.79 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 55.9 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 4.00% vs 66.40% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -4.40% vs -8.30% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 30.70% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 59.0%, vs 55.9% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 0.79
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 31% time-in-market, you get 6.02% of the asset upside potential, and 53.01% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 15min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 15min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ GLD • 15 Minutes (4.0%) backtest results explained by Mike, Sarah
Mike
AuthorYo fam, let me break down this backtest on GLD for you! 🔍
Looking at these numbers, it's giving me mixed vibes tbh. The win rate is pretty solid at 59% with a decent safety margin above the minimum required - that's actually pretty sweet! And we're getting almost a trade per day, which means plenty of action to keep things interesting. The max drawdown is only -4.4% which is super manageable for our Wendy's paychecks 💪
But here's where it gets a bit sus - the strategy only made 4% over 18.7 months while buy & hold did 66.4%! That's like ordering a Baconator and getting a plain bun 😭 The Risk/Reward ratio being below 1 (0.79) means we're risking more than we're making on average trades, which isn't ideal for us degens who want those juicy gains.
I'd say this strategy might need some tweaking before going YOLO on it. Maybe look into adjusting the exit conditions to let winners run longer, or finding ways to cut losses quicker. The bones are there with that solid win rate, but we need more meat on them to make this worth our tendies! 🍗 Keep grinding on it fam! 💎🙌
Sarah
AuthorMadre de Dios, this strategy is absolute garbage! Let me tell you why, mi amigo, and please don't take offense - I'm doing you a favor here.
First of all, your net profit is pathetic 4% over 18.7 months while the market made 66.4%! You would have been better off sleeping through this period with a simple buy and hold approach. That's like bringing a knife to a gunfight, pero mucho peor! The market exposure of 30.7% shows you're missing most of the moves too.
Your risk metrics are embarassing - a Sharpe ratio of 0.12 and Sortino of 0.03 are basically telling us your strategy is barely better than throwing darts blindfolded. The win rate of 59% looks decent on paper, but with that terrible risk/reward ratio of 0.79, you're slowly bleeding money like a death by thousand cuts.
Listen, I don't mean to be cruel, but this strategy needs to be taken behind the shed and put out of its misery. The only positive thing I can say is that your win rate leeway is decent - but that's like complementing someone's shoelaces while their house is burning down. Back to the drawing board, amigo!
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on GLD • 15 Minutes
| Total Trades | 239 | Net Profit | 4.0% | Buy & Hold Profit | 66.4% |
| Win Rate | 59% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 0.79 | Max Drawdown | -4.4% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -8.3% | Exposure | 30.7% | Avg Candles in Position | 11.8 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.12 | Sortino Ratio | 0.03 | Realized Volatility | 4.72% |
| Max Winning Streak | 12 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.6 | Max Losing Streak | 7 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.8 | Avg Trades per Month | 25.5 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.9 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.4 | Loss Std Dev | 0.3 | Win Std Dev | 0.2 |
| Expectancy | 0.1 | Beta | 0.09 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |