Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ EURUSD • 15 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 5 months of EURUSD • 15 Minutes (Euro vs USD spot (Interactive Brokers)) data, from March 5, 2025 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 5 months of EURUSD • 15 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 84 positions, with the average win rate of 83% and reward-risk ratio of 0.35. If you assume that 0.35 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 74.1 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 84 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 3.90% vs 8.20% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -1.40% vs -4.30% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 26.90% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 83.0%, vs 74.1% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 0.35
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 27% time-in-market, you get 47.56% of the asset upside potential, and 32.56% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 15min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 15min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ EURUSD • 15 Minutes (3.9%) backtest results explained by Sarah
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this strategy is like a tortuga trying to win Formula 1! The performance is pathetic - only 3.9% net profit while the market itself made 8.2%? You're literally better off sleeping through the trading day!
Let's be real here - the only decent thing about this backtest is the high win rate at 83%. But por favor, look at that miserable risk/reward ratio of 0.35! You're risking more than you're making on each trade. This is like playing Russian roulette with 5 bullets - technically you can win, but why would you want to?
The market exposure of 26.9% shows you're missing most of the action. And that correlation of 0.60 means you're basically just following the market like a lost puppy, but doing it worse! The 1-month performance is negative while taking all these risks - it's like paying someone to punch you in the face!
Look, if you want to lose money slowly, there are more entertaining ways to do it. This strategy needs serious work or better yet, a complete replacement. The numbers are screaming "NO" louder than mi abuela when she catches me eating before dinner!
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on EURUSD • 15 Minutes
| Total Trades | 84 | Net Profit | 3.9% | Buy & Hold Profit | 8.2% |
| Win Rate | 83% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 0.35 | Max Drawdown | -1.4% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -4.3% | Exposure | 26.9% | Avg Candles in Position | 28.4 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.58 | Sortino Ratio | 1.37 | Realized Volatility | 4.07% |
| Max Winning Streak | 16 | Avg Winning Streak | 6.4 | Max Losing Streak | 3 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.3 | Avg Trades per Month | 33.8 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.1 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.3 | Loss Std Dev | 0.3 | Win Std Dev | 0.2 |
| Expectancy | 0.1 | Beta | 0.21 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |