Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 105 days of BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes (Bitcoin vs Tether, Binance US) data, from April 19, 2025 to August 2, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 105 days of BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 81 positions, with the average win rate of 52% and reward-risk ratio of 1.06. If you assume that 1.06 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 48.5 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 81 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 2.30% vs 33.40% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -7.20% vs -12.00% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 19.90% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 52.0%, vs 48.5% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.06
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 20% time-in-market, you get 6.89% of the asset upside potential, and 60.00% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 15min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 15min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes (2.3%) backtest results explained by Sarah
Sarah
AuthorMadre de Dios, this strategy is absolute garbage! Let me tell you why, and please don't get offended because I'm trying to save you from losing your dinero.
First of all, 2.3% net profit over 105 days while the market went up 33.4%? That's embarrasingly bad! You would have made mucho más money by simply buying and holding. The strategy is essentially fighting against a bullish trend and losing badly. And with a market exposure of only 19.9%, you're missing most of the good moves!
The win rate of 52% with a risk/reward ratio of 1.06 is mediocre at best. Yes, you have some "leeway" above minimal win rate, but who cares when your average wins are tiny 0.49% while your losses are -0.46%? You're basically playing to break even! And that negative Sharpe ratio of -0.36 tells me this strategy is producing worse risk-adjusted returns than holding cash.
Look, I've seen many bad strategies in my career, but this one is especialmente terrible because it manages to lose money in a strong uptrend. The -7.2% drawdown is the cherry on top of this disaster cake. Do yourself a favor - either completely redesign this strategy or throw it in la basura where it belongs.
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes
| Total Trades | 81 | Net Profit | 2.3% | Buy & Hold Profit | 33.4% |
| Win Rate | 52% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.06 | Max Drawdown | -7.2% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -12.0% | Exposure | 19.9% | Avg Candles in Position | 23.6 |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.36 | Sortino Ratio | 0.68 | Realized Volatility | 13.13% |
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.1 | Max Losing Streak | 5 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.9 | Avg Trades per Month | 46.3 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.5 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.8 | Loss Std Dev | 0.4 | Win Std Dev | 0.8 |
| Expectancy | 0.1 | Beta | 0.19 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |