Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ TSLA • 10 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 12.5 months of TSLA • 10 Minutes (Tesla, Inc.) data, from July 23, 2024 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 12.5 months of TSLA • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 136 positions, with the average win rate of 60% and reward-risk ratio of 0.66. If you assume that 0.66 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 60.2 to be profitable. So you're screwed! The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: -7.90% vs 23.00% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -34.70% vs -55.30% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 28.60% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 60.0%, vs 60.2% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 0.66
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 29% time-in-market, you get -34.35% of the asset upside potential, and 62.75% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 10min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 10min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ TSLA • 10 Minutes (-7.9%) backtest results explained by Alex C
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results show some concerning patterns that I would not feel comfortable trading with. The negative net profit of -7.9% against a buy & hold profit of 23% is already a red flag. Even though the win rate looks decent at 60%, the risk-reward ratio of 0.66 makes this mathematically challenging.
What really troubles me is the combination of high drawdown (-34.7%) and negative Sharpe ratio (-0.43). This suggests the strategy is taking on too much risk for the returns it generates. The market exposure of 28.6% shows it's not even fully invested most of the time, yet still manages to produce worse results than simply holding the asset.
I must say the trading frequency looks reasonable with 0.7 trades per day - this is not overtrading. But the performance metrics across different timeframes are very inconsistent. We see positive CAGR in 1M and 3M periods but significant negative returns in 6M period (-19.2% CAGR). This kind of inconsistency suggests the strategy might be curve-fitted to certain market conditions and fails when these conditions change. I would not recommend trading this strategy with real money without significant modifications.
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on TSLA • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 136 | Net Profit | -7.9% | Buy & Hold Profit | 23.0% |
| Win Rate | 60% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 0.66 | Max Drawdown | -34.7% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -55.3% | Exposure | 28.6% | Avg Candles in Position | 20.0 |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.43 | Sortino Ratio | -0.06 | Realized Volatility | 23.91% |
| Max Winning Streak | 8 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.1 | Max Losing Streak | 7 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.4 | Avg Trades per Month | 21.8 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.7 |
| Return Std Dev | 2.5 | Loss Std Dev | 2.7 | Win Std Dev | 1.0 |
| Expectancy | -0.0 | Beta | 0.12 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |