Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ PLTR • 10 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 12.5 months of PLTR • 10 Minutes (Palantir Technologies Inc.) data, from July 23, 2024 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 12.5 months of PLTR • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 141 positions, with the average win rate of 58% and reward-risk ratio of 0.98. If you assume that 0.98 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 50.5 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 38.10% vs 439.00% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -25.40% vs -46.50% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 33.40% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 58.0%, vs 50.5% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 0.98
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 33% time-in-market, you get 8.68% of the asset upside potential, and 54.62% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 10min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 10min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ PLTR • 10 Minutes (38.1%) backtest results explained by Alex C
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results show some interesting patterns, but I am not completely convinced about its robustness. Let me explain why.
The strategy shows decent win rate of 58% with almost equal average win and loss sizes (1.65% vs -1.68%). This creates nearly neutral risk/reward ratio of 0.98, which is not optimal - we typically want to see R/R above 1.5 for more safety margin. The good thing is win rate leeway of 57.49%, meaning strategy has good buffer above break-even point. However, the total return of 38.1% significantly underperforms buy & hold return of 439% - this is concerning since we want our active strategy to beat passive holding.
Looking at risk metrics, Sharpe ratio of 1.66 and Sortino of 2.14 are acceptable but not outstanding. The max drawdown of 25.4% is quite high for such moderate returns. The trading frequency of 0.8 trades per day seems reasonable - not too frequent to generate excessive fees but enough trades (141 total) to have statistical significance. What worries me most is the low market exposure of just 33.4% - this suggests strategy misses lot of upside moves while still taking on significant drawdown risk. I would recommend optimizing entry/exit rules to increase time in market while maintaining win rate.
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on PLTR • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 141 | Net Profit | 38.1% | Buy & Hold Profit | 439.0% |
| Win Rate | 58% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 0.98 | Max Drawdown | -25.4% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -46.5% | Exposure | 33.4% | Avg Candles in Position | 22.7 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.66 | Sortino Ratio | 2.14 | Realized Volatility | 25.41% |
| Max Winning Streak | 8 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.4 | Max Losing Streak | 4 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.7 | Avg Trades per Month | 22.6 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.8 |
| Return Std Dev | 2.3 | Loss Std Dev | 2.0 | Win Std Dev | 1.3 |
| Expectancy | 0.2 | Beta | 0.15 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |