Buy at opening candle range breakoutlongBacktest Results @ EURUSD • 10 Minutes
This intraday breakout strategy seeks to enter once price breads above the opening candle High, at any stage of a day. It takes profit on Opening Range High+Opening Range Size, and it has a stop loss at Opening Range Low. It never carries a position overnight; it always exits at the last candle of a day in case if no other exit conditions were met.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 98 days of EURUSD • 10 Minutes (Euro vs USD spot (Interactive Brokers)) data, from April 25, 2025 to August 1, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at opening candle range breakout on 98 days of EURUSD • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 62 positions, with the average win rate of 87% and reward-risk ratio of 0.18. If you assume that 0.18 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 84.8 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 62 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 0.80% vs 2.10% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -1.70% vs -3.60% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 21.70% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 87.0%, vs 84.8% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 0.18
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 22% time-in-market, you get 38.10% of the asset upside potential, and 47.22% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at opening candle range breakout: enter a position when
All of the following: # Papa 10min Opening range JS, Entry Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout: exit a position when
All of the following: # X-ray 10min Opening range JS, Exit Signal emerged
Buy at opening candle range breakout @ EURUSD • 10 Minutes (0.8%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe results look quite interesting, but I see some red flags which we should not ignore. Let me explain why I'm concerned about this strategy, even though the win rate looks impressive at first glance.
The strategy shows a very high win rate of 87%, but the risk/reward ratio is terrible at 0.18. This means we are risking much more than we potentially can win on each trade. The average win is only 0.08% while the average loss is -0.45%. In my experience with similar setups, this kind of risk profile is problematic in the long run. It reminds me of the classic "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller" situation.
The market exposure of 21.7% and the relatively low correlation of 0.51 are actually positive aspects. However, the total return of 0.8% over 98 days is underwhelming, especially when compared to the buy & hold return of 2.1%. The volatility metrics are decent with a Sharpe ratio of 1.35 and Sortino of 2.59, but these numbers are probably inflated by the high win rate masking the underlying risk structure.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this backtest is looking pretty interesting! 🔍 Those numbers are giving me some serious vibes, let me break it down for you.
That 87% win rate is absolutely bonkers! 🚀 Like, we're crushing it with 54 winning trades out of 62 total. But here's the thing - we're playing it super safe with tiny wins (0.08% average) compared to our losses (-0.45%). It's kinda like working at Wendy's - lots of small wins with the occasional bigger L, you feel me? The overall profit is sitting at 0.8%, which isn't exactly lambos and yachts territory, but the strategy seems mad consistent.
What's really got me hyped is that win rate leeway - we're running WAY above what we need to stay profitable! 💪 And that max drawdown of only -1.7% is super chill for risk management. Plus, with about 1.3 trades per day, it's not too demanding on your time. The Sharpe and Sortino ratios are looking healthy too, showing we're getting decent returns for the risk we're taking. Might need to tweak those position sizes though to juice up those gains a bit! 🎯
Sarah
AuthorThis strategy is a complete joke. The win rate looks impressive at first glance (87%), but it's actually a disaster waiting to happen. Let me tell you why, mi amigo.
The risk/reward ratio is absolutely terrible - 0.18! This means your average win (0.08%) is pathetically small compared to your average loss (-0.45%). You're basically picking up pennies in front of a steamroller! With such poor R:R, you need that ridiculously high win rate just to break even. One bad streak and you're finished, comprende?
The net profit of 0.8% over 98 days is embarrasing - you're underperforming buy & hold by 1.3%! What's the point of all this complexity when you could make more money just buying and holding? The market exposure of 21.7% suggests you're missing most of the moves too.
Look, I've seen many terrible strategies in my career, but this one is special kind of bad. It's like trying to cross Atlantic in a paper boat - might work on a calm day, but first storm will sink you. My advice? Delete this strategy and start over. And next time, focus on having decent R:R before chasing unrealistic win rates.
Tabular metrics of Buy at opening candle range breakout backtested on EURUSD • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 62 | Net Profit | 0.8% | Buy & Hold Profit | 2.1% |
| Win Rate | 87% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 0.18 | Max Drawdown | -1.7% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -3.6% | Exposure | 21.7% | Avg Candles in Position | 34.0 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.35 | Sortino Ratio | 2.59 | Realized Volatility | 3.01% |
| Max Winning Streak | 35 | Avg Winning Streak | 7.7 | Max Losing Streak | 2 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.3 | Avg Trades per Month | 38.0 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.3 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.2 | Loss Std Dev | 0.3 | Win Std Dev | 0.1 |
| Expectancy | 0.0 | Beta | 0.19 |
All backtests for Buy at opening candle range breakout
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 15% | (1.0%/4.2%) 0.24x | (-4.6%/-11.1%) 0.41x | 56 | 0.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 22% | (0.8%/2.1%) 0.38x | (-1.7%/-3.6%) 0.47x | 87 | 0.2 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (0.8%/39.2%) 0.02x | (-2.6%/-8.3%) 0.31x | 60 | 0.7 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 32% | (25.9%/41.7%) 0.62x | (-15.6%/-42.8%) 0.36x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 10 Minutes | 33% | (38.1%/439.0%) 0.09x | (-25.4%/-46.5%) 0.55x | 58 | 1.0 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 22% | (16.4%/12.3%) 1.33x | (-5.5%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 68 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 29% | (-7.9%/23.0%) -0.34x | (-34.7%/-55.3%) 0.63x | 60 | 0.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 32% | (13.3%/40.0%) 0.33x | (-9.1%/-23.8%) 0.38x | 63 | 0.8 |
BTCUSDT • 15 Minutes | 20% | (2.3%/33.4%) 0.07x | (-7.2%/-12.0%) 0.60x | 52 | 1.1 |
EURUSD • 15 Minutes | 27% | (3.9%/8.2%) 0.48x | (-1.4%/-4.3%) 0.33x | 83 | 0.3 |
GLD • 15 Minutes | 31% | (4.0%/66.4%) 0.06x | (-4.4%/-8.3%) 0.53x | 59 | 0.8 |
NVDA • 15 Minutes | 34% | (69.7%/211.7%) 0.33x | (-10.1%/-42.8%) 0.24x | 57 | 1.2 |
PLTR • 15 Minutes | 33% | (124.3%/846.9%) 0.15x | (-14.3%/-46.5%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.4 |
SPY • 15 Minutes | 24% | (13.3%/31.8%) 0.42x | (-4.4%/-21.1%) 0.21x | 62 | 0.8 |
TSLA • 15 Minutes | 27% | (16.3%/41.6%) 0.39x | (-20.0%/-55.6%) 0.36x | 56 | 0.9 |
WMT • 15 Minutes | 33% | (27.2%/83.0%) 0.33x | (-4.9%/-23.8%) 0.21x | 64 | 0.9 |
BTCUSDT • 30 Minutes | 21% | (-3.7%/14.3%) -0.26x | (-20.8%/-31.2%) 0.67x | 57 | 0.7 |
EURUSD • 30 Minutes | 35% | (-1.1%/5.7%) -0.19x | (-5.2%/-7.4%) 0.70x | 75 | 0.3 |
GLD • 30 Minutes | 34% | (11.1%/87.3%) 0.13x | (-6.9%/-11.8%) 0.58x | 55 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 30 Minutes | 34% | (58.6%/1089.5%) 0.05x | (-29.2%/-42.9%) 0.68x | 54 | 1.1 |
PLTR • 30 Minutes | 30% | (19.4%/1516.1%) 0.01x | (-41.6%/-48.4%) 0.86x | 54 | 0.9 |
SPY • 30 Minutes | 35% | (18.1%/65.6%) 0.28x | (-6.8%/-20.2%) 0.34x | 63 | 0.7 |
TSLA • 30 Minutes | 29% | (62.0%/33.8%) 1.83x | (-20.9%/-67.1%) 0.31x | 56 | 1.0 |
WMT • 30 Minutes | 32% | (32.0%/138.6%) 0.23x | (-6.5%/-23.8%) 0.27x | 58 | 1.1 |
BTCUSDT • 5 Minutes | 18% | (2.2%/5.7%) 0.39x | (-2.1%/-8.9%) 0.24x | 64 | 1.0 |
EURUSD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (0.7%/0.8%) 0.87x | (-0.7%/-3.7%) 0.19x | 88 | 0.2 |
GLD • 5 Minutes | 23% | (-3.0%/21.5%) -0.14x | (-7.3%/-8.0%) 0.91x | 61 | 0.5 |
NVDA • 5 Minutes | 29% | (14.6%/42.5%) 0.34x | (-9.3%/-38.8%) 0.24x | 61 | 0.9 |
PLTR • 5 Minutes | 26% | (18.3%/95.6%) 0.19x | (-14.7%/-46.6%) 0.32x | 55 | 1.1 |
SPY • 5 Minutes | 14% | (5.4%/3.4%) 1.59x | (-4.0%/-21.1%) 0.19x | 61 | 0.9 |
TSLA • 5 Minutes | 21% | (47.4%/-22.2%) -2.14x | (-7.1%/-48.5%) 0.15x | 68 | 0.9 |
WMT • 5 Minutes | 27% | (12.5%/1.2%) 10.42x | (-4.8%/-23.8%) 0.20x | 63 | 0.9 |