Buy at close/Sell at openlongBacktest Results @ TSLA • 10 Minutes
This strategy exploits a well-known myth, saying that if you buy at stock market session close and then jsut sell the next day at open, then you'll be doing well. You can see youself that the results are … diverse, to say the least. Can buying at close and selling at open make you money? Is it sustainable? See that youself, in the backtest results below. Remember that maybe there are assets where that might make sense. We could not cover all the US stocks and ETFs, anyways
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 12.6 months of TSLA • 10 Minutes (Tesla, Inc.) data, from June 28, 2024 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at close/Sell at open on 12.6 months of TSLA • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 255 positions, with the average win rate of 50% and reward-risk ratio of 1.21. If you assume that 1.21 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 45.3 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 24.50% vs 59.00% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -12.60% vs -55.30% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 5.10% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 50.0%, vs 45.3% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.21
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 5% time-in-market, you get 41.53% of the asset upside potential, and 22.78% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at close/Sell at open: enter a position when
All of the following: # Yankee 10min Date&Time, Custom TZ (UTC+3), Time = 1550
Buy at close/Sell at open: exit a position when
All of the following: # Bravo 10min Date&Time, Custom TZ (UTC+3), Time = 930
Buy at close/Sell at open @ TSLA • 10 Minutes (24.5%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorZe numbers look quite interesting for zis overnight holding strategy on Tesla. Ze win rate of 50% combined with a positive Risk/Reward ratio of 1.21 shows mathematical edge, but I'm concerned about ze relatively high drawdown of 12.6% considering ze low market exposure of only 5.1%.
What catches my attention is ze strong divergence between strategy performance and buy & hold. Ze strategy made 24.5% while buy & hold did 59%, but ze important thing here is ze much lower volatility - strategy has 21.47% realized vol versus 72.08% for ze asset. Zis is reflected in ze better risk-adjusted metrics like Sharpe (0.64) and Sortino (1.09). Ze low correlation of 0.41 also suggests zis could work well as part of a portfolio.
From pure mathematical perspective, ze strategy shows promise with good win rate leeway above ze minimal required win rate. However, I would want to see how sensitive zese results are to small changes in entry/exit timing. Ze sharp drawdown relative to exposure time suggests potential vulnerability to overnight gaps, which could be problematic. I would recommend running additional tests with varied entry/exit times to verify robustness.
Sarah
AuthorThis strategy is pure garbage, and I'm shocked anyone would even consider it! The win rate is pathetically balanced at 50/50 - you might as well flip a coin, mi amigo!
Look at the disaster of underperforming buy & hold by more than half - 24.5% vs 59%! You're literally losing money compared to simply buying and holding like a lazy person. The market exposure is ridiculously low at 5.1% - you're barely even in the market! What's the point?
The most irritating thing is the mediocre risk metrics. A Sharpe ratio of 0.64 is embarrasingly bad - it shows you're taking too much risk for minimal returns. And that -12.6% drawdown? Madre mía! That's horrible for such low market exposure.
The only slightly positive thing I can say is that the Risk/Reward ratio isn't completely terrible at 1.21, but that's like saying your burning house has a nice paint color. This strategy needs to be completely scrapped and rethought from zero. Stop wasting time with these amateur hour tactics!
Tabular metrics of Buy at close/Sell at open backtested on TSLA • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 255 | Net Profit | 24.5% | Buy & Hold Profit | 59.0% |
| Win Rate | 50% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.21 | Max Drawdown | -12.6% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -55.3% | Exposure | 5.1% | Avg Candles in Position | 1.0 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.64 | Sortino Ratio | 1.09 | Realized Volatility | 21.47% |
| Max Winning Streak | 6 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.7 | Max Losing Streak | 6 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.7 | Avg Trades per Month | 40.5 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.3 |
| Return Std Dev | 1.3 | Loss Std Dev | 0.8 | Win Std Dev | 0.8 |
| Expectancy | 0.1 | Beta | 0.1 |
All backtests for Buy at close/Sell at open
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD • 10 Minutes | 5% | (-0.5%/43.7%) -0.01x | (-6.5%/-8.3%) 0.78x | 50 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 5% | (4.8%/32.9%) 0.15x | (-20.9%/-42.8%) 0.49x | 50 | 1.1 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 5% | (1.0%/14.3%) 0.07x | (-4.8%/-20.7%) 0.23x | 51 | 1.0 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 5% | (24.5%/59.0%) 0.42x | (-12.6%/-55.3%) 0.23x | 50 | 1.2 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 5% | (17.8%/40.1%) 0.44x | (-3.8%/-23.8%) 0.16x | 52 | 1.3 |