Buy at close/Sell at openlongBacktest Results @ NVDA • 10 Minutes
This strategy exploits a well-known myth, saying that if you buy at stock market session close and then jsut sell the next day at open, then you'll be doing well. You can see youself that the results are … diverse, to say the least. Can buying at close and selling at open make you money? Is it sustainable? See that youself, in the backtest results below. Remember that maybe there are assets where that might make sense. We could not cover all the US stocks and ETFs, anyways
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 12.6 months of NVDA • 10 Minutes (NVIDIA Corporation) data, from June 28, 2024 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at close/Sell at open on 12.6 months of NVDA • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 255 positions, with the average win rate of 50% and reward-risk ratio of 1.06. If you assume that 1.06 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 48.5 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 4.80% vs 32.90% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -20.90% vs -42.80% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 5.10% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 50.0%, vs 48.5% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.06
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 5% time-in-market, you get 14.59% of the asset upside potential, and 48.83% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at close/Sell at open: enter a position when
All of the following: # Yankee 10min Date&Time, Custom TZ (UTC+3), Time = 1550
Buy at close/Sell at open: exit a position when
All of the following: # Bravo 10min Date&Time, Custom TZ (UTC+3), Time = 930
Buy at close/Sell at open @ NVDA • 10 Minutes (4.8%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe strategy looks quite mediocre from mathematical perspective. The win rate of exactly 50% with nearly identical win and loss sizes (0.86% vs -0.81%) suggests this is essentially a coin flip with tiny edge. While the Risk/Reward ratio of 1.06 is technically positive, it's far too small to be meaningful.
What concerns me most is the negative Sharpe ratio of -0.11. This indicates poor risk-adjusted returns - you're taking more risk than the returns justify. The market exposure of only 5.1% is quite low, which explains why you're significantly underperforming buy & hold (4.8% vs 32.9%). The strategy essentially misses most of the market moves while still exposing you to significant drawdown risk of -20.9%.
The high trade frequency (40.5 trades per month) combined with such small average gains suggests that transaction costs, which aren't included in this backtest, would likely eat up any theoretical profits. The strategy shows no statistical evidence of having predictive power - it appears to be just capturing random market noise rather than any real pattern. I would not recommend trading this without significant modifications to improve the edge.
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this strategy is complete garbage! Let me tell you why, amigo.
First of all, you're making only 4.8% while the market made 32.9%? That's pathetic! You're basically losing money when you factor in inflation and trading costs. And look at that market exposure - only 5.1%! You're sitting out of the market 95% of the time during one of the strongest bull runs in NVDA's history. ¡Qué desastre!
The win rate is exactly 50-50, like flipping a coin, and your average wins barely exceed your average losses. Yes, you have a tiny positive R/R of 1.06, but with that horrible Sharpe ratio of -0.11, you're taking on risk without proper compensation. And that 20.9% drawdown? ¡Dios mío! That's massive for such little market exposure.
The only slightly positive thing I can say is that your win rate has some leeway above the minimal required win rate. But honestly, with these metrics, you'd be better off buying and holding or putting your money under your mattress. This strategy is a complete waste of time and computing power.
Tabular metrics of Buy at close/Sell at open backtested on NVDA • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 255 | Net Profit | 4.8% | Buy & Hold Profit | 32.9% |
| Win Rate | 50% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.06 | Max Drawdown | -20.9% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -42.8% | Exposure | 5.1% | Avg Candles in Position | 1.0 |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.11 | Sortino Ratio | 0.53 | Realized Volatility | 17.27% |
| Max Winning Streak | 7 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.9 | Max Losing Streak | 5 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.8 | Avg Trades per Month | 40.5 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.3 |
| Return Std Dev | 1.1 | Loss Std Dev | 0.7 | Win Std Dev | 0.8 |
| Expectancy | 0.0 | Beta | 0.1 |
All backtests for Buy at close/Sell at open
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD • 10 Minutes | 5% | (-0.5%/43.7%) -0.01x | (-6.5%/-8.3%) 0.78x | 50 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 5% | (4.8%/32.9%) 0.15x | (-20.9%/-42.8%) 0.49x | 50 | 1.1 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 5% | (1.0%/14.3%) 0.07x | (-4.8%/-20.7%) 0.23x | 51 | 1.0 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 5% | (24.5%/59.0%) 0.42x | (-12.6%/-55.3%) 0.23x | 50 | 1.2 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 5% | (17.8%/40.1%) 0.44x | (-3.8%/-23.8%) 0.16x | 52 | 1.3 |