Buy at close/Sell at openlongBacktest Results @ GLD • 10 Minutes
This strategy exploits a well-known myth, saying that if you buy at stock market session close and then jsut sell the next day at open, then you'll be doing well. You can see youself that the results are … diverse, to say the least. Can buying at close and selling at open make you money? Is it sustainable? See that youself, in the backtest results below. Remember that maybe there are assets where that might make sense. We could not cover all the US stocks and ETFs, anyways
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 12.6 months of GLD • 10 Minutes (SPDR Gold Trust) data, from June 28, 2024 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Buy at close/Sell at open on 12.6 months of GLD • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 255 positions, with the average win rate of 50% and reward-risk ratio of 1.00. If you assume that 1.00 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 50.0 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: -0.50% vs 43.70% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -6.50% vs -8.30% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 5.10% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 50.0%, vs 50.0% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.00
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 5% time-in-market, you get -1.14% of the asset upside potential, and 78.31% of the asset downside potential.
Buy at close/Sell at open: enter a position when
All of the following: # Yankee 10min Date&Time, Custom TZ (UTC+3), Time = 1550
Buy at close/Sell at open: exit a position when
All of the following: # Bravo 10min Date&Time, Custom TZ (UTC+3), Time = 930
Buy at close/Sell at open @ GLD • 10 Minutes (-0.5%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe strategy looks quite poor from mathematical perspective. While it produces decent amount of trades (255 over the period), the results are not encouraging at all.
Most concerning is that strategy delivers -0.5% net profit while buy&hold gives +43.7%. This means the strategy significantly underperforms the market. The win rate of 50% combined with risk/reward ratio of 1.0 mathematically guarantees losses over time when accounting for transaction costs. The negative Sharpe (-0.77) and Sortino (-0.89) ratios confirm the poor risk-adjusted returns.
What I find particularly problematic is the market exposure of only 5.1%. This means the strategy misses most of the market moves by design. With such limited exposure time, the strategy would need much higher win rate or risk/reward ratio to be viable. The mathematics simply don't work out here - you cannot expect to capture meaningful returns when you're in the market such small percentage of time while having balanced wins and losses.
Mike
AuthorBruh, this strategy is straight-up not giving the vibes we want! 🙅♂️ Trading GLD overnight and it's giving us negative returns while the market is up 43%? That's like working extra shifts at Wendy's just to lose money!
The stats are kinda sus too - 50/50 win rate with equal wins and losses is basically like flipping a coin, fam. 🎲 And that market exposure of only 5.1% means we're barely in the game! The Sharpe and Sortino ratios being negative are major red flags too, meaning we're not even getting paid for the risk we're taking.
Look, I'm usually the first one to see the potential moonshot in everything, but this ain't it chief. 💯 The strategy might look simple and clean, but with those numbers, you'd literally be better off just buying and holding GLD. Sometimes the simplest plays are the best plays - no need to overcomplicate things when the market's giving you free tendies with buy & hold! 🚀
Sarah
AuthorDios mío, this is absolutely terrible! What were you thinking with this ridiculous strategy?
The strategy is completely worthless - you're losing money (-0.5% net profit) while the market is having a fantastic run (+43.7% buy & hold). This is like watching someone drown in a swimming pool while wearing a life jacket! Your market exposure is pathetically low at 5.1% - you're basically sitting on the sidelines while GLD is making moves.
Look at those risk metrics - negative Sharpe and Sortino ratios! This means you're not even being compensated for the risk you're taking. The strategy is literally worse than throwing darts at a chart blindfolded. And that 50% win rate with 1:1 risk/reward? Madre de Dios, you're just flipping coins here!
The most painful part is seeing how the strategy consistently underperforms across all time periods. While GLD is showing strong CAGR numbers (39.9% for 1Y), your strategy is bleeding money like a wounded bull (-0.7% CAGR). This is not a trading strategy - this is financial self-harm!
My advice? Delete this strategy immediately and never speak of it again. Even buying lottery tickets would give you better odds than this disaster.
Tabular metrics of Buy at close/Sell at open backtested on GLD • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 255 | Net Profit | -0.5% | Buy & Hold Profit | 43.7% |
| Win Rate | 50% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.00 | Max Drawdown | -6.5% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -8.3% | Exposure | 5.1% | Avg Candles in Position | 1.0 |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.77 | Sortino Ratio | -0.89 | Realized Volatility | 4.91% |
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.9 | Max Losing Streak | 6 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.9 | Avg Trades per Month | 40.5 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.3 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.4 | Loss Std Dev | 0.4 | Win Std Dev | 0.3 |
| Expectancy | -0.0 | Beta | 0.12 |
All backtests for Buy at close/Sell at open
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GLD • 10 Minutes | 5% | (-0.5%/43.7%) -0.01x | (-6.5%/-8.3%) 0.78x | 50 | 1.0 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 5% | (4.8%/32.9%) 0.15x | (-20.9%/-42.8%) 0.49x | 50 | 1.1 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 5% | (1.0%/14.3%) 0.07x | (-4.8%/-20.7%) 0.23x | 51 | 1.0 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 5% | (24.5%/59.0%) 0.42x | (-12.6%/-55.3%) 0.23x | 50 | 1.2 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 5% | (17.8%/40.1%) 0.44x | (-3.8%/-23.8%) 0.16x | 52 | 1.3 |