Bollinger/Keltner squeezelongBacktest Results @ NVDA • 1 Hour
This strategy buys whenever Bollinger Bands is squeezed into Kelther Channel. This normally indicates that the market is going sideways. This strategy then sells whenever price goes below the Bollinger Bands middle line. The idea is to buy during the obviously sideways market, hoping for it to burst.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 5.7 years of NVDA • 1 Hour (NVIDIA Corporation) data, from October 25, 2019 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Bollinger/Keltner squeeze on 5.7 years of NVDA • 1 Hour candles. This backtest resulted in 121 positions, with the average win rate of 49% and reward-risk ratio of 2.45. If you assume that 2.45 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 29.0 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 364.40% vs 3126.30% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -34.20% vs -68.00% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 25.70% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 49.0%, vs 29.0% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 2.45
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 26% time-in-market, you get 11.66% of the asset upside potential, and 50.29% of the asset downside potential.
Bollinger/Keltner squeeze: enter a position when
All of the following: # Whiskey 60min Chart(close) (2 candles ago) < 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up (2 candles ago) 60min Chart(close) (1 candles ago) > 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up (1 candles ago) 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up (1 candles ago) < 60min Keltner Channel (20, SMA, 10, 2, 0, close), Up (1 candles ago) 60min BB (20, 2, 2, 0, close) (1 candles ago) > 60min Keltner (20, SMA, 10, 2, 0, close) (1 candles ago)
Bollinger/Keltner squeeze: exit a position when
Any of the following: # Papa 60min Chart(close) < 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Middle
Bollinger/Keltner squeeze @ NVDA • 1 Hour (364.4%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe results look mathematically interesting, but I have some concerns about the robustness. The strategy shows a decent Win Rate of 49% with a good Risk/Reward ratio of 2.45, which explains why it's profitable despite winning less than half the trades. That's actually quite typical for trend-following strategies.
What worries me is the market exposure of only 25.7% while the buy & hold profit is significantly higher at 3126.3%. This suggests we might be missing many good opportunities. The max drawdown of -34.2% is not terrible for a stock like NVDA, but combined with the relatively low Sharpe ratio of 0.98, it indicates the strategy might not be optimal from a risk-adjusted return perspective. I would expect better numbers here.
The strategy shows good consistency with 3.5 trades per month - that's enough to be statistically significant over the 5.7 year period, but not so frequent that commission costs would kill the profits. The win rate leeway of 48.71% above the minimal required win rate is very positive - it means the strategy has room for deterioration before becoming unprofitable. However, I would want to see how sensitive these results are to small changes in the Bollinger and Keltner parameters before deploying real money.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this NVDA strategy is looking pretty interesting! 🚀 Not gonna lie, that 364% total gain over 5.7 years got me hyped, even though it's not beating the insane buy & hold returns (but who could during this NVDA bull run? 😅).
What's really catching my eye is that risk/reward setup - 2.45 R/R ratio with winners averaging 5.16% while losers only hit -2.11%. That's the kind of asymmetric betting I live for! Plus that 49% win rate is way above the 29% minimum needed, giving us almost 50% safety cushion. That's like having extra fries in your Wendy's bag! 🍟
The drawdown of -34.2% is a bit spicy 🌶️, but hey, that's still better than NVDA's own -68% drawdown. What I really dig is how it's only exposed to the market 25.7% of the time - means you're not always risking your tendies and can sleep better at night. Averaging 3.5 trades per month keeps those commission costs low too. Looking at those yearly returns getting more stable over time (from crazy 1789% monthly to a chill 34.2% 5Y CAGR) tells me this isn't just some lucky moonshot strategy.
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, what a mess of a strategy! Let me tear this disaster apart for you.
First off, you're getting absolutely destroyed by buy & hold - 364% vs 3126%? That's pathetic! You're basically throwing money away by not just buying and sitting on your hands. The market exposure of 25.7% shows you're missing most of the big moves while probably catching all the choppy nonsense.
The win rate is barely breaking even at 49% - you might as well flip a coin! Yes, your risk/reward looks decent at 2.45, but with that 7-trade losing streak lurking in there, you're going to need some serious capital to survive those drawdowns. And speaking of drawdowns - 34.2%? That's going to make you cry in your pilato at night!
The only somewhat decent thing I see is the win rate leeway being positive, but honestly, that's like celebrating that you didn't completely fail your exam - you just mostly failed it.
Those Sharpe and Sortino ratios below 1.0 are embarasing - it means you're not even getting properly compensated for the risk you're taking. You're basically working hard to underperform a simple buy & hold strategy. Felicidades, you've managed to turn a winning stock into a losing strategy!
Tabular metrics of Bollinger/Keltner squeeze backtested on NVDA • 1 Hour
| Total Trades | 121 | Net Profit | 364.4% | Buy & Hold Profit | 3126.3% |
| Win Rate | 49% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 2.45 | Max Drawdown | -34.2% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -68.0% | Exposure | 25.7% | Avg Candles in Position | 20.2 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.98 | Sortino Ratio | 0.86 | Realized Volatility | 19.48% |
| Max Winning Streak | 4 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.8 | Max Losing Streak | 7 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 1.9 | Avg Trades per Month | 3.5 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.1 |
| Return Std Dev | 6.0 | Loss Std Dev | 1.7 | Win Std Dev | 6.6 |
| Expectancy | 0.7 | Beta | 0.18 |
All backtests for Bollinger/Keltner squeeze
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSD • 1 Minute | 13% | (0.2%/9.8%) 0.02x | (-0.4%/-1.6%) 0.25x | 49 | 1.2 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 17% | (-0.1%/-0.9%) 0.11x | (-0.5%/-1.2%) 0.42x | 28 | 2.4 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 18% | (3.6%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-1.0%/-5.5%) 0.18x | 35 | 4.0 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 24% | (8.1%/16.7%) 0.49x | (-1.8%/-4.4%) 0.41x | 43 | 2.4 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 23% | (1.0%/4.6%) 0.22x | (-1.6%/-2.1%) 0.76x | 33 | 2.4 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 23% | (-14.5%/-10.3%) 1.41x | (-15.5%/-21.4%) 0.72x | 28 | 1.3 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 18% | (-3.8%/-5.4%) 0.70x | (-3.9%/-6.4%) 0.61x | 31 | 1.4 |
BTCUSD • 10 Minutes | 19% | (1.0%/27.2%) 0.04x | (-6.3%/-12.1%) 0.52x | 35 | 1.9 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 24% | (-0.3%/6.5%) -0.05x | (-4.3%/-4.3%) 1.00x | 30 | 2.3 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 19% | (-4.0%/43.7%) -0.09x | (-8.0%/-8.3%) 0.96x | 37 | 1.4 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 25% | (-12.1%/32.9%) -0.37x | (-24.9%/-42.8%) 0.58x | 36 | 1.6 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 26% | (-0.3%/14.3%) -0.02x | (-5.6%/-20.7%) 0.27x | 38 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 24% | (4.7%/59.0%) 0.08x | (-32.8%/-55.3%) 0.59x | 40 | 1.6 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 27% | (17.3%/40.1%) 0.43x | (-6.2%/-23.8%) 0.26x | 44 | 1.9 |
BTCUSD • 1 Hour | 25% | (19.1%/71.4%) 0.27x | (-21.5%/-31.0%) 0.69x | 42 | 1.7 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 26% | (4.9%/8.2%) 0.60x | (-2.8%/-9.0%) 0.31x | 41 | 1.9 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 16% | (6.2%/117.6%) 0.05x | (-18.6%/-22.2%) 0.84x | 42 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 26% | (364.4%/3126.3%) 0.12x | (-34.2%/-68.0%) 0.50x | 49 | 2.5 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 22% | (8.9%/106.7%) 0.08x | (-12.4%/-35.1%) 0.35x | 41 | 1.7 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 21% | (505.6%/1395.5%) 0.36x | (-34.5%/-75.1%) 0.46x | 43 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 25% | (25.8%/138.2%) 0.19x | (-9.3%/-26.9%) 0.35x | 46 | 1.6 |
BTCUSD • Daily | 28% | (2515.4%/67440.2%) 0.04x | (-51.5%/-83.8%) 0.61x | 45 | 4.2 |
EURUSD • Daily | 25% | (5.2%/10.8%) 0.48x | (-9.1%/-23.3%) 0.39x | 39 | 1.9 |
GLD • Daily | 17% | (13.2%/595.1%) 0.02x | (-21.1%/-45.3%) 0.47x | 39 | 1.9 |
NVDA • Daily | 26% | (577.6%/373678.5%) 0.00x | (-51.4%/-90.0%) 0.57x | 43 | 2.5 |
SPY • Daily | 22% | (14.1%/1316.3%) 0.01x | (-39.4%/-56.7%) 0.69x | 39 | 1.9 |
TSLA • Daily | 24% | (1451.6%/24185.2%) 0.06x | (-38.8%/-75.0%) 0.52x | 47 | 3.9 |
WMT • Daily | 26% | (-44.0%/9978.0%) -0.00x | (-74.7%/-50.6%) 1.48x | 36 | 1.6 |