Bollinger bands pierce (long)longBacktest Results @ TSLA • Daily
This stragegy buys when price breaks up from the Bollinger Bands upper band. This is believed to indicate the beginning of a big upmove. It then sells whenever price goes below the Bollinger Bands middle line. See whether buying the Bollinger Bands breakout is a good idea! We've backtested it.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 15 years of TSLA • Daily (Tesla, Inc.) data, from June 29, 2010 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Bollinger bands pierce (long) on 15 years of TSLA • Daily candles. This backtest resulted in 64 positions, with the average win rate of 45% and reward-risk ratio of 4.97. If you assume that 4.97 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 16.8 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. However, 64 positions is a small sample size, so take the results with a huge grain of salt. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 8915.30% vs 24185.20% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -40.70% vs -75.00% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 35.00% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 45.0%, vs 16.8% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 4.97
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 35% time-in-market, you get 36.86% of the asset upside potential, and 54.27% of the asset downside potential.
Bollinger bands pierce (long): enter a position when
All of the following: # Echo D Chart(close) (1 candles ago) < D Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up (1 candles ago) D Chart(close) > D Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up
Bollinger bands pierce (long): exit a position when
All of the following: # Oscar D Chart(close) < D Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Middle
Bollinger bands pierce (long) @ TSLA • Daily (8915.3%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe strategy shows some interesting characteristics, but I'm not completely convinced about its robustness. Let's look at the key metrics that catch my attention.
The win rate of 45% combined with a risk/reward ratio of 4.97 is mathematically viable - this explains the positive expectancy of 1.7. What I particularly like is the significant win rate leeway of 44.83% above the minimal required win rate. This gives the strategy good room for deterioration before it becomes unprofitable. However, the market exposure of only 35% suggests we might be missing many opportunities.
What worries me is the relatively small sample size of only 64 trades over 15 years (0.7 trades per month). This is statistically not very significant and makes me skeptical about the reliability of the metrics. Also, the maximum drawdown of 40.7% is quite high for a strategy that is only in the market 35% of the time. The Sharpe ratio of 0.43 is below what I would consider acceptable for a robust strategy - I normally want to see at least 0.8 here.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this TSLA strategy is giving me some serious mixed vibes! 🚀💎
The raw numbers look pretty juicy with that 8915% net profit over 15 years, but let's keep it real - it's still underperforming buy & hold by a lot. But check this out: we're only exposed to the market 35% of the time, which means way less stress and risk than holding through those crazy TSLA rollercoasters! 🎢
What's got me hyped is that risk/reward ratio of 4.97 - when we win, we win BIG (28.81% average gains)! The 45% win rate might look meh, but with those numbers, we only need a 16.8% win rate to break even. That's like having a 44.83% safety cushion - absolutely bussin'! 💪
The only things making me a bit nervous are that 40.7% max drawdown (ouch!) and those 5-trade losing streaks. But hey, that's the price of riding the TSLA train! With only 0.7 trades per month, this is definitely more of a swing trading vibe than a day trading strategy. Might give me enough time to keep slinging those Wendy's burgers while waiting for those sweet gainz! 🍔📈
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this is a perfect example of how backtest results can be totally misleading! The performance looks amazing on surface, but let me tear this apart for you.
First, that pathetic 64 trades over 15 years is absolutely ridiculous - you're averaging less than 1 trade per month! This is statistically meaningless. And with 55% of trades being losers? Dios mío, you're basically gambling here, not trading.
The most alarming thing is that Buy & Hold would have made you 24,185% while this "strategy" only made 8,915%. You're literally underperforming the market by a factor of 3! That's embarassing. And with a terrible Sharpe ratio of 0.43, you're taking on massive risk for subpar returns.
The -40.7% drawdown is brutal too. Imagine losing almost half your money while Tesla itself was making millionaires! The only slightly positive thing is the Risk/Reward ratio of 4.97, but with such few trades and poor win rate, it's meaningless.
This strategy is pure garbage. You would be better off buying and holding or finding a strategy that actually trades more than once in a blue moon. Stop wasting time with this nonsense.
Tabular metrics of Bollinger bands pierce (long) backtested on TSLA • Daily
| Total Trades | 64 | Net Profit | 8915.3% | Buy & Hold Profit | 24185.2% |
| Win Rate | 45% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 4.97 | Max Drawdown | -40.7% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -75.0% | Exposure | 35.0% | Avg Candles in Position | 19.7 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.43 | Sortino Ratio | 1.22 | Realized Volatility | 30.69% |
| Max Winning Streak | 3 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.7 | Max Losing Streak | 5 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.1 | Avg Trades per Month | 0.7 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.0 |
| Return Std Dev | 27.6 | Loss Std Dev | 3.9 | Win Std Dev | 31.9 |
| Expectancy | 1.7 | Beta | 0.35 |
All backtests for Bollinger bands pierce (long)
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 24% | (6.4%/8.9%) 0.72x | (-2.3%/-1.9%) 1.21x | 45 | 2.9 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 28% | (0.2%/-0.9%) -0.22x | (-0.6%/-1.2%) 0.50x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 30% | (2.6%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-1.9%/-5.5%) 0.35x | 40 | 2.1 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 29% | (10.9%/16.7%) 0.65x | (-2.1%/-4.4%) 0.48x | 42 | 2.5 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 30% | (1.2%/4.6%) 0.26x | (-1.9%/-2.1%) 0.90x | 34 | 2.2 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 31% | (-15.1%/-10.3%) 1.47x | (-16.7%/-21.4%) 0.78x | 31 | 1.5 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 26% | (-3.3%/-5.4%) 0.61x | (-4.0%/-6.4%) 0.63x | 32 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 27% | (7.2%/26.3%) 0.27x | (-4.8%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 38 | 2.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 32% | (2.3%/6.8%) 0.34x | (-2.7%/-4.3%) 0.63x | 36 | 2.1 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (6.0%/43.7%) 0.14x | (-9.8%/-8.3%) 1.18x | 43 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 33% | (8.1%/32.9%) 0.25x | (-26.2%/-42.8%) 0.61x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (3.6%/14.3%) 0.25x | (-7.7%/-20.7%) 0.37x | 42 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 31% | (4.5%/59.0%) 0.08x | (-37.6%/-55.3%) 0.68x | 39 | 1.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 34% | (25.4%/40.1%) 0.63x | (-6.8%/-23.8%) 0.29x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 30% | (9.3%/71.3%) 0.13x | (-17.2%/-30.6%) 0.56x | 38 | 1.8 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 32% | (6.5%/8.4%) 0.77x | (-4.2%/-9.0%) 0.47x | 40 | 1.9 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 35% | (21.0%/117.6%) 0.18x | (-28.2%/-22.2%) 1.27x | 41 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 36% | (521.6%/3126.3%) 0.17x | (-36.1%/-68.0%) 0.53x | 47 | 2.3 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (31.9%/106.7%) 0.30x | (-11.2%/-35.1%) 0.32x | 46 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 34% | (2572.3%/1395.5%) 1.84x | (-29.3%/-75.1%) 0.39x | 46 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 34% | (62.8%/138.2%) 0.45x | (-14.6%/-26.9%) 0.54x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 36% | (320.8%/1335.5%) 0.24x | (-61.6%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 40 | 3.2 |
EURUSD • Daily | 29% | (3.2%/10.8%) 0.30x | (-10.2%/-23.3%) 0.44x | 30 | 2.7 |
GLD • Daily | 33% | (106.4%/595.1%) 0.18x | (-23.8%/-45.3%) 0.53x | 45 | 2.1 |
NVDA • Daily | 39% | (9137.3%/373678.5%) 0.02x | (-67.9%/-90.0%) 0.75x | 50 | 2.5 |
SPY • Daily | 32% | (32.3%/1316.3%) 0.02x | (-33.3%/-56.7%) 0.59x | 42 | 1.7 |
TSLA • Daily | 35% | (8915.3%/24185.2%) 0.37x | (-40.7%/-75.0%) 0.54x | 45 | 5.0 |
WMT • Daily | 34% | (-20.9%/9978.0%) -0.00x | (-65.4%/-50.6%) 1.29x | 37 | 1.7 |