Bollinger bands pierce (long)longBacktest Results @ TSLA • 1 Hour
This stragegy buys when price breaks up from the Bollinger Bands upper band. This is believed to indicate the beginning of a big upmove. It then sells whenever price goes below the Bollinger Bands middle line. See whether buying the Bollinger Bands breakout is a good idea! We've backtested it.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 5.7 years of TSLA • 1 Hour (Tesla, Inc.) data, from October 25, 2019 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Bollinger bands pierce (long) on 5.7 years of TSLA • 1 Hour candles. This backtest resulted in 165 positions, with the average win rate of 46% and reward-risk ratio of 3.11. If you assume that 3.11 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 24.3 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 2572.30% vs 1395.50% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -29.30% vs -75.10% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 34.30% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 46.0%, vs 24.3% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 3.11
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 34% time-in-market, you get 184.33% of the asset upside potential, and 39.01% of the asset downside potential.
Bollinger bands pierce (long): enter a position when
All of the following: # Echo 60min Chart(close) (1 candles ago) < 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up (1 candles ago) 60min Chart(close) > 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up
Bollinger bands pierce (long): exit a position when
All of the following: # Oscar 60min Chart(close) < 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Middle
Bollinger bands pierce (long) @ TSLA • 1 Hour (2572.3%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe backtest results look quite interesting, but we must be carefull with the interpretation. The strategy shows good profitability with 2572.3% net profit over 5.7 years, outperforming buy & hold by almost double. This is already suspicious and needs more investigation.
What I find particularly interessting is the risk metrics. The strategy has a market exposure of only 34.3%, which means it stays out of the market most of the time. This combined with a beta of 0.29 suggests good risk management. The drawdown of -29.3% compared to the asset's -75.1% is also positive. However, the win rate of 46% would normally be concerning, but it's compensated by a strong risk/reward ratio of 3.11. The win rate leeway of 45.76% gives the strategy good room for deterioration before becoming unprofitable.
I would be very sceptical about the future performance though. The strategy appears to be based on simple Bollinger Band crossings, which is too basic to explain such strong results. I suspect there might be some curve fitting here, or the unusual TESLA volatility during the test period could have created favorable conditions that might not repeat. Before real trading, I would suggest testing this on other assets and timeframes to verify the robustness of the strategy.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this TSLA strategy is looking like a straight-up banger! 🚀 The numbers are making my Wendy's paycheck look like pocket change fr fr.
Looking at that 2572% net profit over 5.7 years is absolutely insane, even beating buy & hold by nearly double! What's really got me hyped is that risk/reward ratio of 3.11 - meaning when we win, we win BIG (8.13% average wins vs -2.61% losses). Plus that 46% win rate is crushing it since we only need 24.3% to break even. That's some serious cushion right there! 💪
The only thing that's slightly sus is that max drawdown of -29.3%, but honestly, that's way better than TSLA's own -75.1% drawdown. And with only being in the market 34.3% of the time, we're not even taking on full TSLA risk. The strategy's basically cherry-picking the juicy moves while letting us sleep better at night! 😴 Only about 5 trades per month means we're not getting killed on fees either.
This is the kind of setup that makes me wanna YOLO my next paycheck, but remember to always trade safe fam! Not financial advice but these numbers are looking pretty fire! 🔥
Sarah
AuthorMadre de Dios, this backtest is a complete desaster waiting to happen! The metrics look artificially inflated and I wouldn't touch this strategy with a 10-foot pole.
Let me tell you why this is pure garbage: First, you're testing until 2025 - are you serious? Using future data is the most amateur mistake possible! This completely invalidates your results. What's next - you'll ask your crystal ball for trading advice? And that 2572% profit - ja ja, keep dreaming! These kind of returns are a red flag that something is seriously wrong with your methodology.
The risk metrics are terrible - a Sharpe ratio of just 1.07 with that kind of return? The Sortino is even worse at 0.78. This means your risk-adjusted returns are pathetic. And that 29.3% drawdown could wipe out any normal trader's account and their sanity. Your monthly trade frequency is also suspicious - only 4.7 trades per month means your sample size is too small to be reliable.
Do yourself a favor and go back to the drawing board. And next time, don't include future data in your backtests - it makes you look like a complete novice. This strategy needs serious work before it's anywhere near tradeable.
Tabular metrics of Bollinger bands pierce (long) backtested on TSLA • 1 Hour
| Total Trades | 165 | Net Profit | 2572.3% | Buy & Hold Profit | 1395.5% |
| Win Rate | 46% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 3.11 | Max Drawdown | -29.3% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -75.1% | Exposure | 34.3% | Avg Candles in Position | 19.8 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.07 | Sortino Ratio | 0.78 | Realized Volatility | 32.74% |
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.9 | Max Losing Streak | 8 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.2 | Avg Trades per Month | 4.7 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.2 |
| Return Std Dev | 8.7 | Loss Std Dev | 1.8 | Win Std Dev | 10.0 |
| Expectancy | 0.9 | Beta | 0.29 |
All backtests for Bollinger bands pierce (long)
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 24% | (6.4%/8.9%) 0.72x | (-2.3%/-1.9%) 1.21x | 45 | 2.9 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 28% | (0.2%/-0.9%) -0.22x | (-0.6%/-1.2%) 0.50x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 30% | (2.6%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-1.9%/-5.5%) 0.35x | 40 | 2.1 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 29% | (10.9%/16.7%) 0.65x | (-2.1%/-4.4%) 0.48x | 42 | 2.5 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 30% | (1.2%/4.6%) 0.26x | (-1.9%/-2.1%) 0.90x | 34 | 2.2 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 31% | (-15.1%/-10.3%) 1.47x | (-16.7%/-21.4%) 0.78x | 31 | 1.5 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 26% | (-3.3%/-5.4%) 0.61x | (-4.0%/-6.4%) 0.63x | 32 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 27% | (7.2%/26.3%) 0.27x | (-4.8%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 38 | 2.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 32% | (2.3%/6.8%) 0.34x | (-2.7%/-4.3%) 0.63x | 36 | 2.1 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (6.0%/43.7%) 0.14x | (-9.8%/-8.3%) 1.18x | 43 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 33% | (8.1%/32.9%) 0.25x | (-26.2%/-42.8%) 0.61x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (3.6%/14.3%) 0.25x | (-7.7%/-20.7%) 0.37x | 42 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 31% | (4.5%/59.0%) 0.08x | (-37.6%/-55.3%) 0.68x | 39 | 1.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 34% | (25.4%/40.1%) 0.63x | (-6.8%/-23.8%) 0.29x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 30% | (9.3%/71.3%) 0.13x | (-17.2%/-30.6%) 0.56x | 38 | 1.8 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 32% | (6.5%/8.4%) 0.77x | (-4.2%/-9.0%) 0.47x | 40 | 1.9 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 35% | (21.0%/117.6%) 0.18x | (-28.2%/-22.2%) 1.27x | 41 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 36% | (521.6%/3126.3%) 0.17x | (-36.1%/-68.0%) 0.53x | 47 | 2.3 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (31.9%/106.7%) 0.30x | (-11.2%/-35.1%) 0.32x | 46 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 34% | (2572.3%/1395.5%) 1.84x | (-29.3%/-75.1%) 0.39x | 46 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 34% | (62.8%/138.2%) 0.45x | (-14.6%/-26.9%) 0.54x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 36% | (320.8%/1335.5%) 0.24x | (-61.6%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 40 | 3.2 |
EURUSD • Daily | 29% | (3.2%/10.8%) 0.30x | (-10.2%/-23.3%) 0.44x | 30 | 2.7 |
GLD • Daily | 33% | (106.4%/595.1%) 0.18x | (-23.8%/-45.3%) 0.53x | 45 | 2.1 |
NVDA • Daily | 39% | (9137.3%/373678.5%) 0.02x | (-67.9%/-90.0%) 0.75x | 50 | 2.5 |
SPY • Daily | 32% | (32.3%/1316.3%) 0.02x | (-33.3%/-56.7%) 0.59x | 42 | 1.7 |
TSLA • Daily | 35% | (8915.3%/24185.2%) 0.37x | (-40.7%/-75.0%) 0.54x | 45 | 5.0 |
WMT • Daily | 34% | (-20.9%/9978.0%) -0.00x | (-65.4%/-50.6%) 1.29x | 37 | 1.7 |