Bollinger bands pierce (long)longBacktest Results @ NVDA • 1 Hour
This stragegy buys when price breaks up from the Bollinger Bands upper band. This is believed to indicate the beginning of a big upmove. It then sells whenever price goes below the Bollinger Bands middle line. See whether buying the Bollinger Bands breakout is a good idea! We've backtested it.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 5.7 years of NVDA • 1 Hour (NVIDIA Corporation) data, from October 25, 2019 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Bollinger bands pierce (long) on 5.7 years of NVDA • 1 Hour candles. This backtest resulted in 167 positions, with the average win rate of 47% and reward-risk ratio of 2.31. If you assume that 2.31 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 30.2 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 521.60% vs 3126.30% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -36.10% vs -68.00% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 36.30% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 47.0%, vs 30.2% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 2.31
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 36% time-in-market, you get 16.68% of the asset upside potential, and 53.09% of the asset downside potential.
Bollinger bands pierce (long): enter a position when
All of the following: # Echo 60min Chart(close) (1 candles ago) < 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up (1 candles ago) 60min Chart(close) > 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up
Bollinger bands pierce (long): exit a position when
All of the following: # Oscar 60min Chart(close) < 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Middle
Bollinger bands pierce (long) @ NVDA • 1 Hour (521.6%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe strategy shows some interessting characteristics, but I have concerns about the stability. The Win Rate of 47% combined with a Risk/Reward of 2.31 gives mathematically good expectancy of 0.5, which explains the overall positive performance. However, the maximum drawdown of 36.1% is quite significant and would be hard to stomach for most traders.
What really catches my attention is the high exposure to outliers. The strategy significantly underperforms buy & hold (521.6% vs 3126.3%), which is not suprising given only 36.3% market exposure. But the volatility metrics show the strategy is actually doing good job at risk management - the realized volatility is less than half of the asset volatility (23.73% vs 49.87%). The Sharpe and Sortino ratios above 1 confirm acceptable risk-adjusted returns.
I would be worried about the losing streaks though - maximum of 9 consecutive losses could be psychologically challenging. Also the sample size of 167 trades over 5.7 years (only 0.2 trades per day) is statistically quite small for such a volatile asset like NVDA. I would recommend testing this on other instruments to validate if the edge holds up across different market conditions. The strategy might benefit from additional filters to reduce false signals, even if that means trading less frequently.
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this strategy is like a student who thinks they're clever but actually failing the class!
Let's be real here - the strategy is severely underperforming the market with only 521.6% vs 3126.3% buy & hold return. That's pathetic! You're basically losing money by being too smart for your own good. With a 47% win rate, you're literally worse than a coin flip.
The exposure is ridiculously low at 36.3% - you're sitting out during most of the strongest moves in one of the best performing stocks! What were you thinking? The average hold time of 20.7 candles suggests you're getting scared out of positions way too early.
The only semi-decent thing here is the Risk/Reward ratio of 2.31, but even a broken clock is right twice per day. And that -36.1% drawdown? Dios mío! You might as well go to casino - at least they give you free drinks while you lose your money.
Look, I know Bollinger Bands look pretty on charts, but this implementation is garbage. You're trying to catch reversals in a strongly trending stock - that's like trying to catch falling knives while blindfolded. Either ride the trend or find another stock to trade.
Tabular metrics of Bollinger bands pierce (long) backtested on NVDA • 1 Hour
| Total Trades | 167 | Net Profit | 521.6% | Buy & Hold Profit | 3126.3% |
| Win Rate | 47% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 2.31 | Max Drawdown | -36.1% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -68.0% | Exposure | 36.3% | Avg Candles in Position | 20.7 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.16 | Sortino Ratio | 1.23 | Realized Volatility | 23.73% |
| Max Winning Streak | 6 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.9 | Max Losing Streak | 9 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.2 | Avg Trades per Month | 4.8 | Avg Trades per Day | 0.2 |
| Return Std Dev | 5.6 | Loss Std Dev | 1.6 | Win Std Dev | 5.9 |
| Expectancy | 0.5 | Beta | 0.25 |
All backtests for Bollinger bands pierce (long)
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 24% | (6.4%/8.9%) 0.72x | (-2.3%/-1.9%) 1.21x | 45 | 2.9 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 28% | (0.2%/-0.9%) -0.22x | (-0.6%/-1.2%) 0.50x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 30% | (2.6%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-1.9%/-5.5%) 0.35x | 40 | 2.1 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 29% | (10.9%/16.7%) 0.65x | (-2.1%/-4.4%) 0.48x | 42 | 2.5 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 30% | (1.2%/4.6%) 0.26x | (-1.9%/-2.1%) 0.90x | 34 | 2.2 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 31% | (-15.1%/-10.3%) 1.47x | (-16.7%/-21.4%) 0.78x | 31 | 1.5 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 26% | (-3.3%/-5.4%) 0.61x | (-4.0%/-6.4%) 0.63x | 32 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 27% | (7.2%/26.3%) 0.27x | (-4.8%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 38 | 2.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 32% | (2.3%/6.8%) 0.34x | (-2.7%/-4.3%) 0.63x | 36 | 2.1 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (6.0%/43.7%) 0.14x | (-9.8%/-8.3%) 1.18x | 43 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 33% | (8.1%/32.9%) 0.25x | (-26.2%/-42.8%) 0.61x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (3.6%/14.3%) 0.25x | (-7.7%/-20.7%) 0.37x | 42 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 31% | (4.5%/59.0%) 0.08x | (-37.6%/-55.3%) 0.68x | 39 | 1.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 34% | (25.4%/40.1%) 0.63x | (-6.8%/-23.8%) 0.29x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 30% | (9.3%/71.3%) 0.13x | (-17.2%/-30.6%) 0.56x | 38 | 1.8 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 32% | (6.5%/8.4%) 0.77x | (-4.2%/-9.0%) 0.47x | 40 | 1.9 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 35% | (21.0%/117.6%) 0.18x | (-28.2%/-22.2%) 1.27x | 41 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 36% | (521.6%/3126.3%) 0.17x | (-36.1%/-68.0%) 0.53x | 47 | 2.3 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (31.9%/106.7%) 0.30x | (-11.2%/-35.1%) 0.32x | 46 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 34% | (2572.3%/1395.5%) 1.84x | (-29.3%/-75.1%) 0.39x | 46 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 34% | (62.8%/138.2%) 0.45x | (-14.6%/-26.9%) 0.54x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 36% | (320.8%/1335.5%) 0.24x | (-61.6%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 40 | 3.2 |
EURUSD • Daily | 29% | (3.2%/10.8%) 0.30x | (-10.2%/-23.3%) 0.44x | 30 | 2.7 |
GLD • Daily | 33% | (106.4%/595.1%) 0.18x | (-23.8%/-45.3%) 0.53x | 45 | 2.1 |
NVDA • Daily | 39% | (9137.3%/373678.5%) 0.02x | (-67.9%/-90.0%) 0.75x | 50 | 2.5 |
SPY • Daily | 32% | (32.3%/1316.3%) 0.02x | (-33.3%/-56.7%) 0.59x | 42 | 1.7 |
TSLA • Daily | 35% | (8915.3%/24185.2%) 0.37x | (-40.7%/-75.0%) 0.54x | 45 | 5.0 |
WMT • Daily | 34% | (-20.9%/9978.0%) -0.00x | (-65.4%/-50.6%) 1.29x | 37 | 1.7 |