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Bollinger bands pierce (long)long
Backtest Results @ EURUSD • 1 Hour

This stragegy buys when price breaks up from the Bollinger Bands upper band. This is believed to indicate the beginning of a big upmove. It then sells whenever price goes below the Bollinger Bands middle line. See whether buying the Bollinger Bands breakout is a good idea! We've backtested it.

Equity Curve

Backtest covers 19.5 months of EURUSD • 1 Hour (Euro vs USD spot (Interactive Brokers)) data, from December 6, 2023 to July 13, 2025.

Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.

Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.

Strategy

Asset

Strategy Drawdown

Asset Drawdown

So, we have backtested Bollinger bands pierce (long) on 19.5 months of EURUSD • 1 Hour candles. This backtest resulted in 181 positions, with the average win rate of 40% and reward-risk ratio of 1.93. If you assume that 1.93 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 34.1 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:

Total Return: Total Return: 6.50% vs 8.40% for the asset
Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -4.20% vs -9.00% for the asset
Exposure: Exposure: 31.60% time in the market
Win Rate: Win Rate: 40.0%, vs 34.1% minimum
Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.93

With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 32% time-in-market, you get 77.38% of the asset upside potential, and 46.67% of the asset downside potential.

Bollinger bands pierce (long): enter a position when

All of the following: # Echo
  60min Chart(close) (1 candles ago) < 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up (1 candles ago)
  60min Chart(close) > 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up

Bollinger bands pierce (long): exit a position when

All of the following: # Oscar
  60min Chart(close) < 60min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Middle

Bollinger bands pierce (long) @ EURUSD • 1 Hour (6.5%) backtest results explained by Mike

Mike

Author

Yo fam, this Bollinger Bands strategy is looking kinda interesting! 🤔 The numbers are giving me some mixed vibes but there's definitely potential here.

First off, that 40% win rate might look sus, but peep this - we're actually crushing it with a 1.93 risk/reward ratio! 🚀 That means when we win, we're winning bigger than we're losing. The strategy's sitting pretty with a 39.66% win rate leeway above what we need to be profitable - that's some serious cushion right there! And only a 4.2% max drawdown? That's actually pretty chill for forex trading.

The thing that's got me a bit worried is the market exposure at 31.6% and that we're slightly underperforming buy & hold (6.5% vs 8.4%). But hey, we're using way less risk to get there! Plus, look at that 6-month performance hitting 16% CAGR - those are some juicy numbers! 💰 Might need to tweak the exit conditions a bit to squeeze more juice out of those winning trades, but overall this looks like it could be a decent base to build on. Not quite Lambo money yet, but definitely Wendy's-paycheck-to-moon potential! 🌙

Tabular metrics of Bollinger bands pierce (long) backtested on EURUSD • 1 Hour

Total Trades	181	Net Profit	6.5%	Buy & Hold Profit	8.4%
Win Rate	40%	Reward/Risk Ratio	1.93	Max Drawdown	-4.2%
Asset Max Drawdown	-9.0%	Exposure	31.6%	Avg Candles in Position	15.7
Sharpe Ratio	-0.57	Sortino Ratio	-0.98	Realized Volatility	3.79%
Max Winning Streak	5	Avg Winning Streak	1.6	Max Losing Streak	11
Avg Losing Streak	2.3	Avg Trades per Month	18.6	Avg Trades per Day	0.6
Return Std Dev	0.4	Loss Std Dev	0.2	Win Std Dev	0.5
Expectancy	0.2	Beta	0.33

All backtests for Bollinger bands pierce (long)

backtest	exposure	peformance vs asset	drawdown vs asset	win%	reward/risk
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute	24%	(6.4%/8.9%) 0.72x	(-2.3%/-1.9%) 1.21x	45	2.9
EURUSD • 1 Minute	28%	(0.2%/-0.9%) -0.22x	(-0.6%/-1.2%) 0.50x	34	2.1
GLD • 1 Minute	30%	(2.6%/0.0%) Infinityx	(-1.9%/-5.5%) 0.35x	40	2.1
NVDA • 1 Minute	29%	(10.9%/16.7%) 0.65x	(-2.1%/-4.4%) 0.48x	42	2.5
SPY • 1 Minute	30%	(1.2%/4.6%) 0.26x	(-1.9%/-2.1%) 0.90x	34	2.2
TSLA • 1 Minute	31%	(-15.1%/-10.3%) 1.47x	(-16.7%/-21.4%) 0.78x	31	1.5
WMT • 1 Minute	26%	(-3.3%/-5.4%) 0.61x	(-4.0%/-6.4%) 0.63x	32	1.6
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes	27%	(7.2%/26.3%) 0.27x	(-4.8%/-12.1%) 0.40x	38	2.1
EURUSD • 10 Minutes	32%	(2.3%/6.8%) 0.34x	(-2.7%/-4.3%) 0.63x	36	2.1
GLD • 10 Minutes	38%	(6.0%/43.7%) 0.14x	(-9.8%/-8.3%) 1.18x	43	1.6
NVDA • 10 Minutes	33%	(8.1%/32.9%) 0.25x	(-26.2%/-42.8%) 0.61x	44	1.4
SPY • 10 Minutes	33%	(3.6%/14.3%) 0.25x	(-7.7%/-20.7%) 0.37x	42	1.6
TSLA • 10 Minutes	31%	(4.5%/59.0%) 0.08x	(-37.6%/-55.3%) 0.68x	39	1.7
WMT • 10 Minutes	34%	(25.4%/40.1%) 0.63x	(-6.8%/-23.8%) 0.29x	43	2.1
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour	30%	(9.3%/71.3%) 0.13x	(-17.2%/-30.6%) 0.56x	38	1.8
EURUSD • 1 Hour	32%	(6.5%/8.4%) 0.77x	(-4.2%/-9.0%) 0.47x	40	1.9
GLD • 1 Hour	35%	(21.0%/117.6%) 0.18x	(-28.2%/-22.2%) 1.27x	41	1.8
NVDA • 1 Hour	36%	(521.6%/3126.3%) 0.17x	(-36.1%/-68.0%) 0.53x	47	2.3
SPY • 1 Hour	36%	(31.9%/106.7%) 0.30x	(-11.2%/-35.1%) 0.32x	46	1.6
TSLA • 1 Hour	34%	(2572.3%/1395.5%) 1.84x	(-29.3%/-75.1%) 0.39x	46	3.1
WMT • 1 Hour	34%	(62.8%/138.2%) 0.45x	(-14.6%/-26.9%) 0.54x	43	2.1
BTCUSDT • Daily	36%	(320.8%/1335.5%) 0.24x	(-61.6%/-76.6%) 0.80x	40	3.2
EURUSD • Daily	29%	(3.2%/10.8%) 0.30x	(-10.2%/-23.3%) 0.44x	30	2.7
GLD • Daily	33%	(106.4%/595.1%) 0.18x	(-23.8%/-45.3%) 0.53x	45	2.1
NVDA • Daily	39%	(9137.3%/373678.5%) 0.02x	(-67.9%/-90.0%) 0.75x	50	2.5
SPY • Daily	32%	(32.3%/1316.3%) 0.02x	(-33.3%/-56.7%) 0.59x	42	1.7
TSLA • Daily	35%	(8915.3%/24185.2%) 0.37x	(-40.7%/-75.0%) 0.54x	45	5.0
WMT • Daily	34%	(-20.9%/9978.0%) -0.00x	(-65.4%/-50.6%) 1.29x	37	1.7

Bollinger bands pierce (long)longBacktest Results @ EURUSD • 1 Hour