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Bollinger bands pierce (long)long
Backtest Results @ WMT • 10 Minutes

This stragegy buys when price breaks up from the Bollinger Bands upper band. This is believed to indicate the beginning of a big upmove. It then sells whenever price goes below the Bollinger Bands middle line. See whether buying the Bollinger Bands breakout is a good idea! We've backtested it.

Equity Curve

Backtest covers 12.6 months of WMT • 10 Minutes (Walmart Inc.) data, from June 28, 2024 to July 11, 2025.

Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.

Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.

Strategy

Asset

Strategy Drawdown

Asset Drawdown

So, we have backtested Bollinger bands pierce (long) on 12.6 months of WMT • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 195 positions, with the average win rate of 43% and reward-risk ratio of 2.08. If you assume that 2.08 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 32.5 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:

Total Return: Total Return: 25.40% vs 40.10% for the asset
Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -6.80% vs -23.80% for the asset
Exposure: Exposure: 33.50% time in the market
Win Rate: Win Rate: 43.0%, vs 32.5% minimum
Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 2.08

With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 34% time-in-market, you get 63.34% of the asset upside potential, and 28.57% of the asset downside potential.

Bollinger bands pierce (long): enter a position when

All of the following: # Echo
  10min Chart(close) (1 candles ago) < 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up (1 candles ago)
  10min Chart(close) > 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up

Bollinger bands pierce (long): exit a position when

All of the following: # Oscar
  10min Chart(close) < 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Middle

Bollinger bands pierce (long) @ WMT • 10 Minutes (25.4%) backtest results explained by Mike

Mike

Author

Yo fam, this Bollinger Bands strategy on WMT is looking pretty juicy! 🚀 The numbers are giving me some serious potential vibes, even though it's not beating buy & hold (which is up 40% - WMT been pumping fr fr).

What's got me hyped is that Risk/Reward ratio of 2.08 and the solid win rate leeway - we're crushing the minimal required win rate by over 4000%! That's like finding extra fries at the bottom of your Wendy's bag! 🍟 The max drawdown is only -6.8% which is way better than WMT's raw -23.8% drawdown. Plus that Sharpe ratio of 2.04 is telling me this strategy isn't just YOLO'ing blindly.

Only thing that's making me a bit sus is the 57% loss rate, but since the average wins (0.80%) are bigger than the average losses (-0.39%), we're still coming out ahead. Getting about 1 trade per day means we're not overtrading and those commission fees won't eat us alive. This could be a solid strategy to throw some tendies at, especially if you're patient enough to handle those losing streaks! 💎🙌

Tabular metrics of Bollinger bands pierce (long) backtested on WMT • 10 Minutes

Total Trades	195	Net Profit	25.4%	Buy & Hold Profit	40.1%
Win Rate	43%	Reward/Risk Ratio	2.08	Max Drawdown	-6.8%
Asset Max Drawdown	-23.8%	Exposure	33.5%	Avg Candles in Position	16.2
Sharpe Ratio	2.04	Sortino Ratio	1.40	Realized Volatility	10.38%
Max Winning Streak	5	Avg Winning Streak	1.8	Max Losing Streak	10
Avg Losing Streak	2.4	Avg Trades per Month	31.0	Avg Trades per Day	1.0
Return Std Dev	0.8	Loss Std Dev	0.3	Win Std Dev	0.9
Expectancy	0.3	Beta	0.23

All backtests for Bollinger bands pierce (long)

backtest	exposure	peformance vs asset	drawdown vs asset	win%	reward/risk
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute	24%	(6.4%/8.9%) 0.72x	(-2.3%/-1.9%) 1.21x	45	2.9
EURUSD • 1 Minute	28%	(0.2%/-0.9%) -0.22x	(-0.6%/-1.2%) 0.50x	34	2.1
GLD • 1 Minute	30%	(2.6%/0.0%) Infinityx	(-1.9%/-5.5%) 0.35x	40	2.1
NVDA • 1 Minute	29%	(10.9%/16.7%) 0.65x	(-2.1%/-4.4%) 0.48x	42	2.5
SPY • 1 Minute	30%	(1.2%/4.6%) 0.26x	(-1.9%/-2.1%) 0.90x	34	2.2
TSLA • 1 Minute	31%	(-15.1%/-10.3%) 1.47x	(-16.7%/-21.4%) 0.78x	31	1.5
WMT • 1 Minute	26%	(-3.3%/-5.4%) 0.61x	(-4.0%/-6.4%) 0.63x	32	1.6
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes	27%	(7.2%/26.3%) 0.27x	(-4.8%/-12.1%) 0.40x	38	2.1
EURUSD • 10 Minutes	32%	(2.3%/6.8%) 0.34x	(-2.7%/-4.3%) 0.63x	36	2.1
GLD • 10 Minutes	38%	(6.0%/43.7%) 0.14x	(-9.8%/-8.3%) 1.18x	43	1.6
NVDA • 10 Minutes	33%	(8.1%/32.9%) 0.25x	(-26.2%/-42.8%) 0.61x	44	1.4
SPY • 10 Minutes	33%	(3.6%/14.3%) 0.25x	(-7.7%/-20.7%) 0.37x	42	1.6
TSLA • 10 Minutes	31%	(4.5%/59.0%) 0.08x	(-37.6%/-55.3%) 0.68x	39	1.7
WMT • 10 Minutes	34%	(25.4%/40.1%) 0.63x	(-6.8%/-23.8%) 0.29x	43	2.1
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour	30%	(9.3%/71.3%) 0.13x	(-17.2%/-30.6%) 0.56x	38	1.8
EURUSD • 1 Hour	32%	(6.5%/8.4%) 0.77x	(-4.2%/-9.0%) 0.47x	40	1.9
GLD • 1 Hour	35%	(21.0%/117.6%) 0.18x	(-28.2%/-22.2%) 1.27x	41	1.8
NVDA • 1 Hour	36%	(521.6%/3126.3%) 0.17x	(-36.1%/-68.0%) 0.53x	47	2.3
SPY • 1 Hour	36%	(31.9%/106.7%) 0.30x	(-11.2%/-35.1%) 0.32x	46	1.6
TSLA • 1 Hour	34%	(2572.3%/1395.5%) 1.84x	(-29.3%/-75.1%) 0.39x	46	3.1
WMT • 1 Hour	34%	(62.8%/138.2%) 0.45x	(-14.6%/-26.9%) 0.54x	43	2.1
BTCUSDT • Daily	36%	(320.8%/1335.5%) 0.24x	(-61.6%/-76.6%) 0.80x	40	3.2
EURUSD • Daily	29%	(3.2%/10.8%) 0.30x	(-10.2%/-23.3%) 0.44x	30	2.7
GLD • Daily	33%	(106.4%/595.1%) 0.18x	(-23.8%/-45.3%) 0.53x	45	2.1
NVDA • Daily	39%	(9137.3%/373678.5%) 0.02x	(-67.9%/-90.0%) 0.75x	50	2.5
SPY • Daily	32%	(32.3%/1316.3%) 0.02x	(-33.3%/-56.7%) 0.59x	42	1.7
TSLA • Daily	35%	(8915.3%/24185.2%) 0.37x	(-40.7%/-75.0%) 0.54x	45	5.0
WMT • Daily	34%	(-20.9%/9978.0%) -0.00x	(-65.4%/-50.6%) 1.29x	37	1.7

Bollinger bands pierce (long)longBacktest Results @ WMT • 10 Minutes