Bollinger bands pierce (long)longBacktest Results @ TSLA • 10 Minutes
This stragegy buys when price breaks up from the Bollinger Bands upper band. This is believed to indicate the beginning of a big upmove. It then sells whenever price goes below the Bollinger Bands middle line. See whether buying the Bollinger Bands breakout is a good idea! We've backtested it.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 12.6 months of TSLA • 10 Minutes (Tesla, Inc.) data, from June 28, 2024 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Bollinger bands pierce (long) on 12.6 months of TSLA • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 181 positions, with the average win rate of 39% and reward-risk ratio of 1.69. If you assume that 1.69 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 37.2 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 4.50% vs 59.00% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -37.60% vs -55.30% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 30.50% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 39.0%, vs 37.2% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.69
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 31% time-in-market, you get 7.63% of the asset upside potential, and 67.99% of the asset downside potential.
Bollinger bands pierce (long): enter a position when
All of the following: # Echo 10min Chart(close) (1 candles ago) < 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up (1 candles ago) 10min Chart(close) > 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up
Bollinger bands pierce (long): exit a position when
All of the following: # Oscar 10min Chart(close) < 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Middle
Bollinger bands pierce (long) @ TSLA • 10 Minutes (4.5%) backtest results explained by Mike, Sarah
Mike
AuthorYo fam, let me break down this TSLA Bollinger Bands strategy! 🚀
Looking at these numbers, it's giving me mixed vibes tbh. The win rate is sitting at 39% which isn't great, but check this out - when we win, we're bagging 2.41% compared to -1.43% on losses. That's actually a decent risk/reward setup! Plus we've got that sweet 38.63% cushion above the minimum win rate needed, which is pretty lit. 💪
But here's where it gets a bit rough my dudes - that -37.6% max drawdown is no joke, and we're seriously underperforming buy & hold (4.5% vs 59% 😬). The strategy's keeping us in the market only 30.5% of the time, which might be missing some big moves. Those 13-trade losing streaks could shake out paper hands real quick too.
Listen, I'm all about that YOLO life behind the Wendy's grill, but this strategy needs some tweaking before I'd throw my paycheck at it. Maybe we could adjust those Bollinger Band settings or add another confirmation indicator? The bones are there with that risk/reward ratio, but we gotta pump those numbers up! 🔧 Still diamond hands though! 💎🙌
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, this strategy is a complete disaster! The numbers are screaming "stay away" louder than my abuela at Sunday dinner.
Let's be brutally honest here - you're getting absolutely destroyed by buy & hold (4.5% vs 59.0%). That's embarrasing! And with a pathetic 39% win rate, you're basically throwing darts blindfolded. The 13-trade losing streak? That would make even the most patient trader jump off a bridge. And that -37.6% drawdown? ¡Dios mío!
The only slightly positive thing I see is the Risk/Reward ratio of 1.69, but it's like putting lipstick on a cerdo. Your strategy is exposed to the market 30.5% of the time and still manages to lose money while TSLA goes up. That's some special kind of talent for losing!
Listen, I don't know who sold you on this Bollinger Bands strategy, but they should be prohibited from touching a trading terminal ever again. The negative Sharpe ratio (-0.46) confirms what's obvious - this is pure garbage. Do yourself a favor and go back to drawing board, or better yet, just buy and hold like a normal person.
Tabular metrics of Bollinger bands pierce (long) backtested on TSLA • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 181 | Net Profit | 4.5% | Buy & Hold Profit | 59.0% |
| Win Rate | 39% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.69 | Max Drawdown | -37.6% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -55.3% | Exposure | 30.5% | Avg Candles in Position | 15.8 |
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.46 | Sortino Ratio | 0.01 | Realized Volatility | 33.33% |
| Max Winning Streak | 4 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.5 | Max Losing Streak | 13 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.4 | Avg Trades per Month | 28.7 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.0 |
| Return Std Dev | 2.6 | Loss Std Dev | 1.5 | Win Std Dev | 2.3 |
| Expectancy | 0.0 | Beta | 0.26 |
All backtests for Bollinger bands pierce (long)
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 24% | (6.4%/8.9%) 0.72x | (-2.3%/-1.9%) 1.21x | 45 | 2.9 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 28% | (0.2%/-0.9%) -0.22x | (-0.6%/-1.2%) 0.50x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 30% | (2.6%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-1.9%/-5.5%) 0.35x | 40 | 2.1 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 29% | (10.9%/16.7%) 0.65x | (-2.1%/-4.4%) 0.48x | 42 | 2.5 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 30% | (1.2%/4.6%) 0.26x | (-1.9%/-2.1%) 0.90x | 34 | 2.2 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 31% | (-15.1%/-10.3%) 1.47x | (-16.7%/-21.4%) 0.78x | 31 | 1.5 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 26% | (-3.3%/-5.4%) 0.61x | (-4.0%/-6.4%) 0.63x | 32 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 27% | (7.2%/26.3%) 0.27x | (-4.8%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 38 | 2.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 32% | (2.3%/6.8%) 0.34x | (-2.7%/-4.3%) 0.63x | 36 | 2.1 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (6.0%/43.7%) 0.14x | (-9.8%/-8.3%) 1.18x | 43 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 33% | (8.1%/32.9%) 0.25x | (-26.2%/-42.8%) 0.61x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (3.6%/14.3%) 0.25x | (-7.7%/-20.7%) 0.37x | 42 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 31% | (4.5%/59.0%) 0.08x | (-37.6%/-55.3%) 0.68x | 39 | 1.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 34% | (25.4%/40.1%) 0.63x | (-6.8%/-23.8%) 0.29x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 30% | (9.3%/71.3%) 0.13x | (-17.2%/-30.6%) 0.56x | 38 | 1.8 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 32% | (6.5%/8.4%) 0.77x | (-4.2%/-9.0%) 0.47x | 40 | 1.9 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 35% | (21.0%/117.6%) 0.18x | (-28.2%/-22.2%) 1.27x | 41 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 36% | (521.6%/3126.3%) 0.17x | (-36.1%/-68.0%) 0.53x | 47 | 2.3 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (31.9%/106.7%) 0.30x | (-11.2%/-35.1%) 0.32x | 46 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 34% | (2572.3%/1395.5%) 1.84x | (-29.3%/-75.1%) 0.39x | 46 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 34% | (62.8%/138.2%) 0.45x | (-14.6%/-26.9%) 0.54x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 36% | (320.8%/1335.5%) 0.24x | (-61.6%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 40 | 3.2 |
EURUSD • Daily | 29% | (3.2%/10.8%) 0.30x | (-10.2%/-23.3%) 0.44x | 30 | 2.7 |
GLD • Daily | 33% | (106.4%/595.1%) 0.18x | (-23.8%/-45.3%) 0.53x | 45 | 2.1 |
NVDA • Daily | 39% | (9137.3%/373678.5%) 0.02x | (-67.9%/-90.0%) 0.75x | 50 | 2.5 |
SPY • Daily | 32% | (32.3%/1316.3%) 0.02x | (-33.3%/-56.7%) 0.59x | 42 | 1.7 |
TSLA • Daily | 35% | (8915.3%/24185.2%) 0.37x | (-40.7%/-75.0%) 0.54x | 45 | 5.0 |
WMT • Daily | 34% | (-20.9%/9978.0%) -0.00x | (-65.4%/-50.6%) 1.29x | 37 | 1.7 |