Bollinger bands pierce (long)longBacktest Results @ NVDA • 10 Minutes
This stragegy buys when price breaks up from the Bollinger Bands upper band. This is believed to indicate the beginning of a big upmove. It then sells whenever price goes below the Bollinger Bands middle line. See whether buying the Bollinger Bands breakout is a good idea! We've backtested it.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 12.6 months of NVDA • 10 Minutes (NVIDIA Corporation) data, from June 28, 2024 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Bollinger bands pierce (long) on 12.6 months of NVDA • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 194 positions, with the average win rate of 44% and reward-risk ratio of 1.40. If you assume that 1.40 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 41.7 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 8.10% vs 32.90% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -26.20% vs -42.80% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 33.30% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 44.0%, vs 41.7% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.40
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 33% time-in-market, you get 24.62% of the asset upside potential, and 61.21% of the asset downside potential.
Bollinger bands pierce (long): enter a position when
All of the following: # Echo 10min Chart(close) (1 candles ago) < 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up (1 candles ago) 10min Chart(close) > 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up
Bollinger bands pierce (long): exit a position when
All of the following: # Oscar 10min Chart(close) < 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Middle
Bollinger bands pierce (long) @ NVDA • 10 Minutes (8.1%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe strategy shows some interesting characteristics, but I am not fully convinced about its robustness. Let me explain why.
The win rate of 44% combined with a risk/reward ratio of 1.4 gives us positive expectancy, which is mathematically good. The strategy also shows decent market exposure at 33.3%, meaning it's not overtrading. However, the net profit of 8.1% versus buy & hold of 32.9% is concerning - why trade actively when holding would give better results? This is especially relevant for a strong performer like NVDA.
What really makes me sceptical is the maximum drawdown of -26.2%. This is quite high for the relatively small profit potential. The Sharpe ratio of 0.42 is also below what I would consider acceptable - typically you want to see at least 0.8 for a robust strategy. The strategy seems to work better in shorter timeframes (75.4% CAGR in 1M) but deteriorates over longer periods (7.7% CAGR in 1Y), which suggests possible overfitting issues.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, let me break down this NVDA strategy for you! 🚀💎
This Bollinger Bands setup is giving us some interesting vibes. We're getting about 1 trade per day which is pretty sweet for a 10-minute timeframe - not too crazy but enough action to keep things spicy! The 44% win rate might look meh at first, but check this out: our winners are bigger than our losers (1.58% vs -1.13%), giving us that juicy 1.40 risk/reward ratio. That's why we're still profitable even with fewer winning trades! 💪
The real MVP stat here is that win rate leeway - we're crushing it at 43.58% above what we need to be profitable. That's some serious cushion right there! However, I'm a bit concerned about that 26.2% max drawdown - that's gonna test your diamond hands for sure. The market exposure at 33.3% means we're not overtrading, which is actually pretty smart for NVDA's volatility. 📊
Would I YOLO my Wendy's paycheck on this? Maybe not the whole thing, but it's definitely got potential for a portion of the portfolio. The strategy is underperforming buy & hold (8.1% vs 32.9%), but it's also taking way less risk with that beta of 0.21. Just gotta manage those position sizes and be ready for those 7-trade losing streaks! 🎯💸
Sarah
AuthorThis strategy is pure garbage, and I can't believe someone would even consider trading it! Let me tell you why, amigo.
First of all, the strategy only made 8.1% while the simple buy and hold made 32.9%? That's pathetic! You're basically paying attention to the market all day long to make 1/4 of what you could make by doing absolutely nothing. This is like working extra hours at McDonalds when you already have a well-paying job - completely stupid!
The win rate is horrible - 44% wins with a 1.40 risk/reward? Si, matematically it can work, but that drawdown of 26.2% is going to kill you mentally! You'll be sweating like a pig in summer when your account goes down by quarter of its value. And for what? To make less than buy and hold?
The only semi-decent thing here is the trade frequency - about 1 trade per day is manageable. But honestly, who wants to manage trades every day to underperform the market? This is like paying premium price for economy service. Makes zero sense!
Look amigo, either fix this strategy completely or throw it in the basura where it belongs. And don't even get me started on those volatility numbers...
Tabular metrics of Bollinger bands pierce (long) backtested on NVDA • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 194 | Net Profit | 8.1% | Buy & Hold Profit | 32.9% |
| Win Rate | 44% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.40 | Max Drawdown | -26.2% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -42.8% | Exposure | 33.3% | Avg Candles in Position | 16.2 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.42 | Sortino Ratio | 0.99 | Realized Volatility | 26.65% |
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.5 | Max Losing Streak | 7 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 2.0 | Avg Trades per Month | 30.8 | Avg Trades per Day | 1.0 |
| Return Std Dev | 1.8 | Loss Std Dev | 1.1 | Win Std Dev | 1.4 |
| Expectancy | 0.1 | Beta | 0.21 |
All backtests for Bollinger bands pierce (long)
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 24% | (6.4%/8.9%) 0.72x | (-2.3%/-1.9%) 1.21x | 45 | 2.9 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 28% | (0.2%/-0.9%) -0.22x | (-0.6%/-1.2%) 0.50x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 30% | (2.6%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-1.9%/-5.5%) 0.35x | 40 | 2.1 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 29% | (10.9%/16.7%) 0.65x | (-2.1%/-4.4%) 0.48x | 42 | 2.5 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 30% | (1.2%/4.6%) 0.26x | (-1.9%/-2.1%) 0.90x | 34 | 2.2 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 31% | (-15.1%/-10.3%) 1.47x | (-16.7%/-21.4%) 0.78x | 31 | 1.5 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 26% | (-3.3%/-5.4%) 0.61x | (-4.0%/-6.4%) 0.63x | 32 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 27% | (7.2%/26.3%) 0.27x | (-4.8%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 38 | 2.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 32% | (2.3%/6.8%) 0.34x | (-2.7%/-4.3%) 0.63x | 36 | 2.1 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (6.0%/43.7%) 0.14x | (-9.8%/-8.3%) 1.18x | 43 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 33% | (8.1%/32.9%) 0.25x | (-26.2%/-42.8%) 0.61x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (3.6%/14.3%) 0.25x | (-7.7%/-20.7%) 0.37x | 42 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 31% | (4.5%/59.0%) 0.08x | (-37.6%/-55.3%) 0.68x | 39 | 1.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 34% | (25.4%/40.1%) 0.63x | (-6.8%/-23.8%) 0.29x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 30% | (9.3%/71.3%) 0.13x | (-17.2%/-30.6%) 0.56x | 38 | 1.8 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 32% | (6.5%/8.4%) 0.77x | (-4.2%/-9.0%) 0.47x | 40 | 1.9 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 35% | (21.0%/117.6%) 0.18x | (-28.2%/-22.2%) 1.27x | 41 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 36% | (521.6%/3126.3%) 0.17x | (-36.1%/-68.0%) 0.53x | 47 | 2.3 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (31.9%/106.7%) 0.30x | (-11.2%/-35.1%) 0.32x | 46 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 34% | (2572.3%/1395.5%) 1.84x | (-29.3%/-75.1%) 0.39x | 46 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 34% | (62.8%/138.2%) 0.45x | (-14.6%/-26.9%) 0.54x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 36% | (320.8%/1335.5%) 0.24x | (-61.6%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 40 | 3.2 |
EURUSD • Daily | 29% | (3.2%/10.8%) 0.30x | (-10.2%/-23.3%) 0.44x | 30 | 2.7 |
GLD • Daily | 33% | (106.4%/595.1%) 0.18x | (-23.8%/-45.3%) 0.53x | 45 | 2.1 |
NVDA • Daily | 39% | (9137.3%/373678.5%) 0.02x | (-67.9%/-90.0%) 0.75x | 50 | 2.5 |
SPY • Daily | 32% | (32.3%/1316.3%) 0.02x | (-33.3%/-56.7%) 0.59x | 42 | 1.7 |
TSLA • Daily | 35% | (8915.3%/24185.2%) 0.37x | (-40.7%/-75.0%) 0.54x | 45 | 5.0 |
WMT • Daily | 34% | (-20.9%/9978.0%) -0.00x | (-65.4%/-50.6%) 1.29x | 37 | 1.7 |