Bollinger bands pierce (long)longBacktest Results @ BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes
This stragegy buys when price breaks up from the Bollinger Bands upper band. This is believed to indicate the beginning of a big upmove. It then sells whenever price goes below the Bollinger Bands middle line. See whether buying the Bollinger Bands breakout is a good idea! We've backtested it.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 69 days of BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes (Bitcoin vs Tether, Binance US) data, from May 5, 2025 to July 13, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Bollinger bands pierce (long) on 69 days of BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes candles. This backtest resulted in 178 positions, with the average win rate of 38% and reward-risk ratio of 2.06. If you assume that 2.06 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 32.7 to be profitable. So you're looking good so far. The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: 7.20% vs 26.30% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -4.80% vs -12.10% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 27.30% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 38.0%, vs 32.7% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 2.06
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 27% time-in-market, you get 27.38% of the asset upside potential, and 39.67% of the asset downside potential.
Bollinger bands pierce (long): enter a position when
All of the following: # Echo 10min Chart(close) (1 candles ago) < 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up (1 candles ago) 10min Chart(close) > 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up
Bollinger bands pierce (long): exit a position when
All of the following: # Oscar 10min Chart(close) < 10min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Middle
Bollinger bands pierce (long) @ BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes (7.2%) backtest results explained by Sarah
Sarah
AuthorMadre mía, what a disappointing piece of garbage strategy! The numbers are embarassing - only 7.2% profit while the market made 26.3%? You would have done better throwing darts at chart blindfolded!
The win rate is pathetic - 38%? Even though risk/reward looks decent at 2.06, you're basically losing money more than 60% of the time. And that max losing streak of 8 trades? Dios mío, that would destroy most traders mentally.
The only slightly positive thing I see is the drawdown control - max drawdown of 4.8% isn't terrible compared to asset's 12.1%. But who cares about controlled losses when you're massively underperforming the market!
5.2 trades per day is way too much for such mediocre results. You're basically paying your broker to lose money slower than if you just went all in at once. The strategy is overactive and underperfoming.
My professional advice? Delete this strategy and never look at Bollinger Bands again. This is exactly the kind of amateur technical analysis nonsense that keeps retail traders poor. If you want to donate money, there are better ways than using this strategy.
Tabular metrics of Bollinger bands pierce (long) backtested on BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes
| Total Trades | 178 | Net Profit | 7.2% | Buy & Hold Profit | 26.3% |
| Win Rate | 38% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 2.06 | Max Drawdown | -4.8% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -12.1% | Exposure | 27.3% | Avg Candles in Position | 13.9 |
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.13 | Sortino Ratio | 2.70 | Realized Volatility | 18.32% |
| Max Winning Streak | 5 | Avg Winning Streak | 2.0 | Max Losing Streak | 8 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 3.2 | Avg Trades per Month | 154.8 | Avg Trades per Day | 5.2 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.5 | Loss Std Dev | 0.2 | Win Std Dev | 0.5 |
| Expectancy | 0.2 | Beta | 0.28 |
All backtests for Bollinger bands pierce (long)
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 24% | (6.4%/8.9%) 0.72x | (-2.3%/-1.9%) 1.21x | 45 | 2.9 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 28% | (0.2%/-0.9%) -0.22x | (-0.6%/-1.2%) 0.50x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 30% | (2.6%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-1.9%/-5.5%) 0.35x | 40 | 2.1 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 29% | (10.9%/16.7%) 0.65x | (-2.1%/-4.4%) 0.48x | 42 | 2.5 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 30% | (1.2%/4.6%) 0.26x | (-1.9%/-2.1%) 0.90x | 34 | 2.2 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 31% | (-15.1%/-10.3%) 1.47x | (-16.7%/-21.4%) 0.78x | 31 | 1.5 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 26% | (-3.3%/-5.4%) 0.61x | (-4.0%/-6.4%) 0.63x | 32 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 27% | (7.2%/26.3%) 0.27x | (-4.8%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 38 | 2.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 32% | (2.3%/6.8%) 0.34x | (-2.7%/-4.3%) 0.63x | 36 | 2.1 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (6.0%/43.7%) 0.14x | (-9.8%/-8.3%) 1.18x | 43 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 33% | (8.1%/32.9%) 0.25x | (-26.2%/-42.8%) 0.61x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (3.6%/14.3%) 0.25x | (-7.7%/-20.7%) 0.37x | 42 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 31% | (4.5%/59.0%) 0.08x | (-37.6%/-55.3%) 0.68x | 39 | 1.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 34% | (25.4%/40.1%) 0.63x | (-6.8%/-23.8%) 0.29x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 30% | (9.3%/71.3%) 0.13x | (-17.2%/-30.6%) 0.56x | 38 | 1.8 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 32% | (6.5%/8.4%) 0.77x | (-4.2%/-9.0%) 0.47x | 40 | 1.9 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 35% | (21.0%/117.6%) 0.18x | (-28.2%/-22.2%) 1.27x | 41 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 36% | (521.6%/3126.3%) 0.17x | (-36.1%/-68.0%) 0.53x | 47 | 2.3 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (31.9%/106.7%) 0.30x | (-11.2%/-35.1%) 0.32x | 46 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 34% | (2572.3%/1395.5%) 1.84x | (-29.3%/-75.1%) 0.39x | 46 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 34% | (62.8%/138.2%) 0.45x | (-14.6%/-26.9%) 0.54x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 36% | (320.8%/1335.5%) 0.24x | (-61.6%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 40 | 3.2 |
EURUSD • Daily | 29% | (3.2%/10.8%) 0.30x | (-10.2%/-23.3%) 0.44x | 30 | 2.7 |
GLD • Daily | 33% | (106.4%/595.1%) 0.18x | (-23.8%/-45.3%) 0.53x | 45 | 2.1 |
NVDA • Daily | 39% | (9137.3%/373678.5%) 0.02x | (-67.9%/-90.0%) 0.75x | 50 | 2.5 |
SPY • Daily | 32% | (32.3%/1316.3%) 0.02x | (-33.3%/-56.7%) 0.59x | 42 | 1.7 |
TSLA • Daily | 35% | (8915.3%/24185.2%) 0.37x | (-40.7%/-75.0%) 0.54x | 45 | 5.0 |
WMT • Daily | 34% | (-20.9%/9978.0%) -0.00x | (-65.4%/-50.6%) 1.29x | 37 | 1.7 |