Bollinger bands pierce (long)longBacktest Results @ TSLA • 1 Minute
This stragegy buys when price breaks up from the Bollinger Bands upper band. This is believed to indicate the beginning of a big upmove. It then sells whenever price goes below the Bollinger Bands middle line. See whether buying the Bollinger Bands breakout is a good idea! We've backtested it.
Equity Curve
Backtest covers 38 days of TSLA • 1 Minute (Tesla, Inc.) data, from June 3, 2025 to July 11, 2025.
Equity curve is the strategy's performance over time. You should compare it to the asset's Buy & Hold performance. In general, you want the blue area to be well above the gray area.
Drawdown is how much losses (realized or unrealized) the strategy has had if compared to the highest equity peak. Compare this to the asset's drawdown to see whether your strategy does a decent job of isolating you from downside volatility. In general, the red area must be well within the gray area.
So, we have backtested Bollinger bands pierce (long) on 38 days of TSLA • 1 Minute candles. This backtest resulted in 201 positions, with the average win rate of 31% and reward-risk ratio of 1.47. If you assume that 1.47 reward-to-risk ratio holds, you need a minimum win rate of 40.5 to be profitable. So you're screwed! The key metrics are as follows:
- Total Return: Total Return: -15.10% vs -10.30% for the asset
- Max Drawdown: Max Drawdown: -16.70% vs -21.40% for the asset
- Exposure: Exposure: 30.70% time in the market
- Win Rate: Win Rate: 31.0%, vs 40.5% minimum
- Reward/Risk Ratio: Reward/Risk Ratio: 1.47
With that exposure in mind, you can tell that for 31% time-in-market, you get 146.60% of the asset upside potential, and 78.04% of the asset downside potential.
Bollinger bands pierce (long): enter a position when
All of the following: # Echo 1min Chart(close) (1 candles ago) < 1min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up (1 candles ago) 1min Chart(close) > 1min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Up
Bollinger bands pierce (long): exit a position when
All of the following: # Oscar 1min Chart(close) < 1min Bollinger Bands ® (20, 2, 2, 0, close), Middle
Bollinger bands pierce (long) @ TSLA • 1 Minute (-15.1%) backtest results explained by Alex C, Mike, Sarah
Alex C
AuthorThe numbers from this backtest look quite problematic, I must say. A win rate of 31% with a risk/reward ratio of 1.47 is mathematically not viable. Even though the reward is higher than risk, you need at least 40.5% win rate to break even - and we are far away from that.
The trading frequency looks good with about 10 trades per day, so we have enough statistical significance. But having 11 losses in a row as maximum losing streak is concerning. With 30% market exposure, the strategy also doesn't protect well against drawdowns - we see -16.7% maximum drawdown which is too much for a strategy that is only in market one third of time.
What bothers me most is that this strategy performs worse than buy and hold (-15.1% vs -10.3%). When you add transaction costs and slippage, which are not included in this backtest, the performance would be even more negative. I would suggest to either completely redesign the entry conditions or look for different strategy alltogether. The current setup is not mathematical viable.
Mike
AuthorYo fam, this backtest on TSLA is giving me some mixed vibes 🤔
On the bright side, we're looking at some serious action with about 10 trades per day - that's a lot of opportunities to catch moves! And that Risk/Reward ratio of 1.47 isn't too shabby, meaning when we win, we win bigger than we lose. Plus, the market exposure is only around 31%, so we're not stuck in positions forever 📈
But here's where it gets rough my dudes - that 31% win rate is killing the vibe. Even though we need just 40.5% to break even, we're not hitting it. That -15% net profit over 38 days while Tesla itself only dropped 10% is a bit of a gut punch. And that 11-trade losing streak? Oof, that would test anyone's diamond hands 💎🙌
I'd say this strategy needs some tweaking before I'd YOLO my Wendy's paycheck into it. Maybe we could add some extra confirmation signals or adjust those Bollinger Band settings? Still bullish on the concept, but gotta make it more reliable before we can start dreaming about that Lambo 🚀
Sarah
AuthorMadre de Dios, this strategy is complete garbage! I can't believe someone would even consider trading this desastre. Let me tell you exactly why this is so terrible.
The win rate is pathetically low at 31% - you're literally losing 7 out of 10 trades! And with such mediocre average wins (0.49%) compared to losses (-0.33%), you're basically throwing money away. The 11-trade losing streak would destroy most traders' accounts and their mental health. Not to mention the -16.7% drawdown which is absolutamente horrible.
The most ridiculous part is that you're doing worse than simply buying and holding (-15.1% vs -10.3%)! You're actively losing more money than if you did nothing at all. That's embarazoso! And with over 10 trades per day, you're just giving money to your broker through commisions.
Look, if you want to donate money, there are many good charities out there. This strategy is basically financial suicide with extra steps. My professional advice: delete this strategy immediately and never look at it again. Go back to estudiar the basics of trading before attempting anything else.
Tabular metrics of Bollinger bands pierce (long) backtested on TSLA • 1 Minute
| Total Trades | 201 | Net Profit | -15.1% | Buy & Hold Profit | -10.3% |
| Win Rate | 31% | Reward/Risk Ratio | 1.47 | Max Drawdown | -16.7% |
| Asset Max Drawdown | -21.4% | Exposure | 30.7% | Avg Candles in Position | 14.3 |
| Sharpe Ratio | Sortino Ratio | Realized Volatility | — | ||
| Max Winning Streak | 3 | Avg Winning Streak | 1.4 | Max Losing Streak | 11 |
| Avg Losing Streak | 3.0 | Avg Trades per Month | 317.4 | Avg Trades per Day | 10.6 |
| Return Std Dev | 0.7 | Loss Std Dev | 0.6 | Win Std Dev | 0.7 |
| Expectancy | -0.2 | Beta | 0.26 |
All backtests for Bollinger bands pierce (long)
| backtest | exposure | peformance vs asset | drawdown vs asset | win% | reward/risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BTCUSDT • 1 Minute | 24% | (6.4%/8.9%) 0.72x | (-2.3%/-1.9%) 1.21x | 45 | 2.9 |
EURUSD • 1 Minute | 28% | (0.2%/-0.9%) -0.22x | (-0.6%/-1.2%) 0.50x | 34 | 2.1 |
GLD • 1 Minute | 30% | (2.6%/0.0%) Infinityx | (-1.9%/-5.5%) 0.35x | 40 | 2.1 |
NVDA • 1 Minute | 29% | (10.9%/16.7%) 0.65x | (-2.1%/-4.4%) 0.48x | 42 | 2.5 |
SPY • 1 Minute | 30% | (1.2%/4.6%) 0.26x | (-1.9%/-2.1%) 0.90x | 34 | 2.2 |
TSLA • 1 Minute | 31% | (-15.1%/-10.3%) 1.47x | (-16.7%/-21.4%) 0.78x | 31 | 1.5 |
WMT • 1 Minute | 26% | (-3.3%/-5.4%) 0.61x | (-4.0%/-6.4%) 0.63x | 32 | 1.6 |
BTCUSDT • 10 Minutes | 27% | (7.2%/26.3%) 0.27x | (-4.8%/-12.1%) 0.40x | 38 | 2.1 |
EURUSD • 10 Minutes | 32% | (2.3%/6.8%) 0.34x | (-2.7%/-4.3%) 0.63x | 36 | 2.1 |
GLD • 10 Minutes | 38% | (6.0%/43.7%) 0.14x | (-9.8%/-8.3%) 1.18x | 43 | 1.6 |
NVDA • 10 Minutes | 33% | (8.1%/32.9%) 0.25x | (-26.2%/-42.8%) 0.61x | 44 | 1.4 |
SPY • 10 Minutes | 33% | (3.6%/14.3%) 0.25x | (-7.7%/-20.7%) 0.37x | 42 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 10 Minutes | 31% | (4.5%/59.0%) 0.08x | (-37.6%/-55.3%) 0.68x | 39 | 1.7 |
WMT • 10 Minutes | 34% | (25.4%/40.1%) 0.63x | (-6.8%/-23.8%) 0.29x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • 1 Hour | 30% | (9.3%/71.3%) 0.13x | (-17.2%/-30.6%) 0.56x | 38 | 1.8 |
EURUSD • 1 Hour | 32% | (6.5%/8.4%) 0.77x | (-4.2%/-9.0%) 0.47x | 40 | 1.9 |
GLD • 1 Hour | 35% | (21.0%/117.6%) 0.18x | (-28.2%/-22.2%) 1.27x | 41 | 1.8 |
NVDA • 1 Hour | 36% | (521.6%/3126.3%) 0.17x | (-36.1%/-68.0%) 0.53x | 47 | 2.3 |
SPY • 1 Hour | 36% | (31.9%/106.7%) 0.30x | (-11.2%/-35.1%) 0.32x | 46 | 1.6 |
TSLA • 1 Hour | 34% | (2572.3%/1395.5%) 1.84x | (-29.3%/-75.1%) 0.39x | 46 | 3.1 |
WMT • 1 Hour | 34% | (62.8%/138.2%) 0.45x | (-14.6%/-26.9%) 0.54x | 43 | 2.1 |
BTCUSDT • Daily | 36% | (320.8%/1335.5%) 0.24x | (-61.6%/-76.6%) 0.80x | 40 | 3.2 |
EURUSD • Daily | 29% | (3.2%/10.8%) 0.30x | (-10.2%/-23.3%) 0.44x | 30 | 2.7 |
GLD • Daily | 33% | (106.4%/595.1%) 0.18x | (-23.8%/-45.3%) 0.53x | 45 | 2.1 |
NVDA • Daily | 39% | (9137.3%/373678.5%) 0.02x | (-67.9%/-90.0%) 0.75x | 50 | 2.5 |
SPY • Daily | 32% | (32.3%/1316.3%) 0.02x | (-33.3%/-56.7%) 0.59x | 42 | 1.7 |
TSLA • Daily | 35% | (8915.3%/24185.2%) 0.37x | (-40.7%/-75.0%) 0.54x | 45 | 5.0 |
WMT • Daily | 34% | (-20.9%/9978.0%) -0.00x | (-65.4%/-50.6%) 1.29x | 37 | 1.7 |